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Geo-Strategic Trend - 189. page

Tajikistan’s Growing Dependence on Beijing

On September 9, Xinhua quoted a report from the Russian newspaper Independent (Независимая газета) that China is becoming Tajikistan’s most important economic and strategic partner.
The article, titled, "Tajikistan Is Becoming China’s Important Client in Raw Materials" stated, "Today, Beijing is one of Dushanbe’s [the capital of Tajikistan] top three trading partners. During 2011, bilateral trade exceeded US$2 billion. Dushanbe believes that this is not the upper limit."
"Xinjiang is treated as one of the future directions of the two sides for expanding trade cooperation. Emomalii Rahmon (the President of Tajikistan) said in an interview, that he hoped to reach an agreement on the Tajikistan-Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) subcommittee on economic and trade cooperation during his talks with Chinese leaders. One cannot rule out that the plan will be implemented, as China regards Tajikistan as Xinjiang’s energy supplier."
"Tajikistan also hopes to participate in supplying natural gas to China. The Central Asia gas pipeline will go through Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Dushanbe wants to pump the natural gas from the Bokhtar field into the pipeline. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and the French Total oil company have started to develop this field. Experts from the two companies said that Tajikistan is likely to become the region’s second-largest supplier of natural gas to China."
"Last year, China won the right to develop the Zeravshan gold mine. In 2007, China’s Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd (紫金矿业公司) acquired the Zeravshan Gold Company. In 2013, Zijin invested US$60 million in gold mining. Last year, Tajikistan received a US$140 million long-term loan from China. The funding will ensure the increased production of gold. In addition to gold, China also paid special attention to lead and zinc."
"China’s agriculture encountered little significant competition in Tajikistan. When local farmers traveled to Russia for the Gold Rush, Chinese farmers came to cultivate the land. The Ministry of Agriculture of Tajikistan leased land to Chinese farmers. The Ministry explained that there is a lack of domestic farming capacity, and that cotton-planted lands are no longer suitable for other crops. The Chinese have the technology to restore the salts to the soil. Their Tajikistan grown products will be sold locally."
"In recent years, China’s investment in Tajikistan approached US$500 million (about 3.07 billion yuan); its loans were about US$1 billion (about 6.14 billion yuan). Beijing is becoming a generous and important source of finance for a number of projects in Tajikistan. Tajikistan’s growing economic dependence on China is not only the key for Beijing to access natural resources, but also a tool for political pressure."
Source: Xinhua, September 9, 2014
http://news.xinhuanet.com/cankao/2014-09/09/c_133630666.htm
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People’s Daily: France Should Not Flip-Flop on Russian Arms Sales

People’s Daily carried a commentary article questioning France’s decision to suspend the delivery of its first Mistral-class amphibious assault ship to Russia. The article said that the French authorities’ decision is rather surprising [disappointing]. 

The article stated, “On whether to carry out the contract to provide Russia the amphibious assault ship, the French authorities had been resisting pressure from the United States and some Western countries. … However, France recently made a 180-degree U-turn. This is primarily because of sustained pressure from the United States. Of course, it is also related to the Russia and Ukraine relations, which started deteriorating some time ago. As can be seen, the French authorities also wanted to use it to exert influence on the Kremlin’s decision makers.” 
The article commented, “In the past, France has been implementing a "de Gaulle" independent foreign policy. Even when the leftist former President Francois Mitterrand was in power, this policy did not change. Now France has to play America’s tune, has become indecisive on major decisions, and has even backtracked. People cannot help but worry about the future of French Foreign Policy.” 

Source: People’s Daily, September 9, 2014 
http://world.people.com.cn/n/2014/0909/c1002-25627747.html

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China Review News: It Is Urgent for China to Develop an Aggressive Maritime Strategy

On September 4, 2014, China Review News published an editorial commentary titled, “It Is Urgent for China to Develop an Aggressive Maritime Strategy.” The commentary viewed the United States as the top obstructionist hindering China’s rise. “The purpose of the United States’ ‘Return to Asia’ strategy is to counterbalance China in order to ensure the Asia-Pacific security system. To do this, it takes advantage of the disputes between China and its surrounding countries and uses China’s neighboring countries’ forces (to act together to go against China).” The commentary asserted that the United States has constantly been making trouble so as to contain China’s rise and to let China’s neighboring countries rely on US protection. “America’s ‘Return to Asia’ strategy has undoubtedly encouraged China’s neighbors to challenge China more boldly in their maritime disputes and even take risky actions against China.”

The commentary suggested that China should be more aggressive. In the disputes in the South China Sea, “China should target Vietnam as a main breakthrough country. It should increase its efforts to crack down on Vietnam through economic, diplomatic, and other means. Scaring Vietnam can achieve the effect of “striking at the mountain to frighten the tiger.” As for the dispute with Japan on the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku Islands), the commentary suggests China should use the same aggressive strategy to crack down on Japan so as to scare the Philippines and Vietnam.

Source: China Review News, September 4, 2014
http://hk.crntt.com/doc/1032/8/1/3/103281309.html?coluid=136&kindid=4710&docid=103281309&mdate=0904000620   

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BBC Chinese: China Appreciates That South Africa Declined the Dalai Lama’s Visa Request

BBC Chinese recently reported that the spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave high praise to South Africa because of the fact that South Africa refused the Dalai Lama’s visa request. The Dalai Lama was planning to attend the Nobel Prize Winners’ Summit in Cape Town, South Africa. South Africa has had four Nobel Prize winners on the basis of human rights, including former South African President Nelson Mandela. The Dalai Lama’s representative stated that the South African government called him and told him that they could not issue the visa since it might “interfere” with the relationship between South Africa and China. China stated that South Africa “took the right position.” China is South Africa’s largest trade partner. In the year 2012, the trade volume between the two countries reached $21 billion.
Source: BBC Chinese, September 5, 2014
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/china/2014/09/140905_china_safrica.shtml
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People’s Daily: Radical Opposition Groups are the Major Roadblock to Democracy in Hong Kong

On September 5, an opinion article appeared on People’s Daily called, "Radical Opposition Groups are the Major Roadblock to Democracy in Hong Kong."
The article stated, "One can draw three conclusions. First, British colonial rule is not compatible with democracy. Basically, the development of democracy in Hong Kong got off the ground after the transfer of sovereignty. Second, the central government is an important driving force for the development of democracy in Hong Kong. The basic political framework of ‘one country, two systems; Hong Kong being governed by the people of Hong Kong’; and the Basic Law are the cornerstone of Hong Kong’s democratic governance. Third, democracy in Hong Kong is developing steadily and swiftly. If the Legislative Council of the SAR Government approves the reform package, Hong Kong will achieve universal suffrage in 2017."
"However, while speaking highly of the development of democracy in Hong Kong, we should also see that the development of democracy in Hong Kong still faces considerable difficulties and obstacles. One obstacle is that Hong Kong’s few political forces are resisting the central government’s governance rights."
"After reunification, the vast majority of people in Hong Kong have had a high degree of recognition that they are Chinese. However, since British colonial rule lasted a hundred years, there are still a small number of political forces holding a mentality of exclusion and confrontation against the central government. A handful of politicians even still regard the United Kingdom as their mother country, with a hope that the United Kingdom and other Western countries will interfere with Hong Kong’s politics. Although these political forces are few in number, with overseas support, they still have considerable political energy."
"The issue facing our society today is not whether to develop democracy, because democracy in Hong Kong has embarked on a road of rapid development. Anyone who blocks the development of democracy will be unpopular. The problem is that some political forces expect to mislead the quest for democracy in Hong Kong society by confronting the central authorities. If Hong Kong cannot achieve a high degree of consensus on the issue of national identity, the election of Chief Executive by universal suffrage in 2017 is likely to abort and the development of democracy in Hong Kong will be undermined. In order to achieve universal suffrage in 2017, we must prevent the radical opposition from creating social divisions on the issue of national identity, so that Hong Kong’s democratic politics can move forward within the framework of the Chinese Constitution and the Basic Law."
Source: People’s Daily, September 5, 2014
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2014-09/05/nw.D110000renmrb_20140905_8-05.htm
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Yellow Book: India and Pakistan Top Picks for the Expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

On September 5, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences issued the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Yellow Book (2014), a book which analyses the current international and regional situations that the SCO faces. The Yellow Book pointed out that, when various conditions are close to mature, China can consider discussing the expansion of the SCO with Member States and that a consensus with the member states is still needed for a number of important issues.
"First, the SCO’s legal basis should be reinforced. The rules of the game should be designed without compromising the fundamental interests of member states. The more member states, the more difficult it will be to achieve a consensus and change the rules of the game. The SCO should perfect its legal system as soon as possible so as to lay a solid legal foundation for the organization’s sustainable development."
"Second, the number of members should be expanded in stages, with a good grasp of the conditions and timing. As mentioned earlier, as the conditions mature for India and Pakistan to become SCO member states, they should be the first choices for SCO expansion. In the past, the SCO did not consider Iran. It was correct from a strategic perspective, but the SCO should maintain close cooperation with Iran, push Iran out of its ‘nuclear trap,’ and create conditions for its formal participation in the SCO."
"The SCO can also consider expanding its members to include the level of observer members, with Turkey as a candidate to be an observer member state. Turkey is a NATO member, but not an EU member. Culturally it is different from the West and is in an embarrassing situation because the West does not fully recognize it. Although it is a country with Muslims as the majority, Turkey is a secular state. Despite Turkey’s close ties with the West, It has shown quite good independence, aggressiveness, and flexibility in diplomatic affairs. Geographically, Turkey is in both Europe and Asia. It is an important gateway for China to reach Europe through Central Asia and West Asia. To include Turkey as an observer member (when conditions are mature, the SCO can absorb it as a full member) is conducive to regional stability and economic development."
"Through SCO negotiations, countries that are willing to join the SCO should accept SCO Charters and all of its founding legal documents and accept the ‘Shanghai Spirit’ advocated by the SCO. This helps the SCO maintain consistent positions on major international issues and improve operational efficiency.
The Yellow Book believes that, after gradually expanding member states, the SCO will gradually become an important platform for China to engage in regional security and economic cooperation and multi-cultural exchanges with relevant countries. The "Silk Road economic zone," stability and development in Afghanistan, energy and financial cooperation, the strike on "three forces" and other major issues will become the focus of SCO.
Source: People’s Daily, September 5, 2014
http://world.people.com.cn/n/2014/0905/c1002-25611065.html 
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Huanqiu: War and Sanctions Would Only Exacerbate the Crisis in Ukraine

WANG Haiyun, Vice President of the China Research Association of the History of Sino-Russian Relations, wrote an article commenting on the current Ukraine crisis. Huanqiu (Global Times) published the article and it was reposted on the Xinhua website. Wang stated that Russia will not bow to the pressure from the West and that the U.S. is the barrier that keeps China from offering help to resolve the crisis. 

Wang said, “[To resolve the crisis] by means of war is a great temptation for the Ukrainian government, especially when it is a matter of national territorial integrity. Asking Poroshenko to give up [fighting] is really difficult. The Ukrainian government must understand that trying to solve the problem in the Eastern region by war is hopeless. … The United States is the dominant force in launching and supporting the war. … As long as the United States and NATO do not send troops directly, Ukraine does not have a chance to win the war. The U.S. and Russia are fighting a war with proxies. The most unfortunate [casualty] is the Ukraine. If the war continues, Ukraine will be a ‘stateless nation.’ Several times, Putin has proposed unconditional truce talks. European powers also want to make the negotiations happen as soon as possible. It is indeed time for Ukraine to make the major decision independently as to whether to have war or peace.” 
Wang continued, “Sanctions cannot solve the Ukrainian crisis either. To use sanctions to pressure Russia into making concessions in disgrace on issues related to national core interests can only be wishful thinking. The U.S.-led Western powers repeatedly bring up the weapon of sanctions to a number of small countries, but when did anyone surrender because of sanctions?” 

Wang suggested that “The United Nations, the OSCE and other international mechanisms should act now. China should also make a gesture as a ‘responsible power,’ conduct active diplomacy, and be sure to encourage the parties to sit down as soon as possible to carry out an equal dialogue. Currently, the biggest obstacle may be the United States. The United States must recognize that, if such fighting and sanctions continue, it will ultimately undermine its own strategic interests. To achieve both containing Russia and holding Europe under control is unrealistic. European powers should jump off as soon as possible from America’s ‘chariot,’ not continue to be kidnapped by the Americans, and not do the kinds of stupid things that will result in the self-destruction of their own home.” 

Source: huanqiu, September 2, 2014 
http://opinion.huanqiu.com/opinion_world/2014-09/5124824.html
http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2014-09/02/c_126944362.htm

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Security Times: Breakthroughs in China’s Diplomacy on Finance

On August 28, a scholar from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences published an article on the Shenzhen based Security Times titled, "Breakthroughs in China’s Diplomacy on Finance." Some translated excerpts follow.
"In recent years, the bright spot in China’s diplomacy in the financial area is its performance at the G20 summit as a major developing country. China thus entered the inner circle of global economic governance, with its influence continuing to expand."
"In the field of international finance, China has been pushing two initiatives. The first is to continue to expand the scope and scale of bilateral currency swaps. As of the end of May 2014, China had signed currency swap agreements with 23 countries and regions, amounting to 2.567 trillion yuan ($0.41 trillion). The second is to build an Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and the BRICS Development Bank to provide financial support to the economic development of the region and to other developing countries. Initiatives advocated by China also include a regional foreign exchange reserve, with China as the largest contributor, and the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Development Bank."
"The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the serious flaws in the international monetary system with the dollar as the main reserve currency and also discredited the Washington-led model of the global economic governance system. The majority of developing countries are eager to reform the global economic governance system, especially the global monetary system. The G20 summit mechanisms in recent years have made useful attempts, but the G20 decision to reform the IMF and the World Bank’s quota and voting shares stalled because the U.S. Congress disapproved."
"China’s plan to build the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has seen substantial progress. It is understood that the AIIB may raise capital from the initial proposal of $50 billion to $100 billion, which is not far from the Asian Development Bank’s $165 billion fund size. However, the parties have yet to reach an agreement. The AIIB’s funds will be used for infrastructure in Asia on projects that may include the new Silk Road connecting Asia and Europe. Twenty-two Asian countries, including a few Middle Eastern countries, have expressed a strong interest in this project. China has had in-depth discussions with Southeast Asian, Middle Eastern, and European countries and Australia, and is in contact with the United States, Japan and India."
"In mid-July, the BRICS summit was held in Brazil. The parties have a solid anticipation that the BRICS Development Bank, headquartered in Shanghai, will become a reality."
"As we all know, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, the IMF and other organizations are part of the dollar hegemony. For the developing countries to change the global financial landscape, they need to break through the institutional barriers in order to counterbalance the dollar hegemony. The BRICS countries’ establishment of foreign exchange contingency arrangements and a development bank will have a profound practical and historical significance for actively participating in global financial governance and reforming the international financial system."
Source: Security Times, August 28, 2014
http://epaper.stcn.com/paper/zqsb/html/2014-08/28/content_607308.htm
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