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Ninety Percent of South Koreans Gave Priority to the U.S.

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that, according to a survey titled, “New Government’s Economic and Foreign Security Policy Survey” that the National Economic Association of Korea released, 90 percent of South Koreans believe that the new government needs first to cooperate with the United States in the fields of the the economy, diplomacy and security. South Korea just completed its presidential election. As one of his initial activities after the election, President-elect Yoon Suk-Yeol has sent a coordination mission to the United States. In terms of South Korea-China relations, 84.9 percent of the respondents to the survey believed that even if there may be short-term difficulties, the new South Korean government should dare to speak out about the contradictions between the two countries. In the question set with a total score of 10 points on country favorability, the United States had the highest favorability score of 7 points, Japan had 3.7 points, and China had only 3.2 points. This latest poll tells us that the future of China-South Korea relations is not optimistic. Looking at the options for cooperation in the economic field, the poll showed only 4.3 percent favorability. Regarding “cooperation with North Korea, China, and Russia”, 68 percent agree “cooperation with the United States and Japan is necessary,” and 27.7 percent believe that “it is necessary to remain neutral.” Around 77.1 percent of the respondents support the new government’s policy of placing the US-Japan-Australia-India Security Dialogue (QUAD) at the top of its foreign policy and 69 percent support the phased participation of South Korea in QUAD.

Source: NetEase, April 4, 2022
https://c.m.163.com/news/a/H44QHFFA0534V2AI.html?spss=backflow-index-hotlist

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Global Times: Experts Warn against NATO’s Globalization

Global Times (a newspaper under the CCP) recently reported that, for the first time, NATO’s foreign minister’s meeting invited Japan and South Korea. Experts reminded people to be vigilant regarding NATO’s globalization. NATO’s frantic eastward expansion is considered the “bane” of the Ukraine crisis. Now, NATO seems to have China on its mind. At a news conference, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said  that NATO’s foreign ministers will discuss NATO’s new strategic vision, which will, for the first time, “take into account China’s growing influence and coercive policies on the global stage.” According to the schedule that NATO released, NATO foreign ministers will hold talks with the foreign ministers of a series of “global partners,” including four Asia-Pacific countries: Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea. Nikkei Asia reported that this is the first time for a Japanese foreign minister to attend the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting. The same is true for the foreign minister of South Korea. The foreign ministers of four non-NATO countries in Europe, namely Ukraine, Sweden, Finland and Georgia, were also invited to attend the meeting. Experts expressed the belief that NATO is a geopolitical weapon and tool of the United States. They say its development goal is very clear. It is to build a global security system based on the interests and values of the United States and the West. In other words, NATO’s involvement in the Ukraine crisis is only a transitional process. Its deeper and long-term goal is China.

Source: Global Times, April 7, 2022
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/47VCIBCbst5

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Top U.K. Judges Resigned from the Hong Kong Court

Robert Reed, the President of the U.K. Supreme Court, and Patrick Hodge, the Deputy President of the U.K. Supreme Court, resigned with immediate effect from their positions as  non-permanent judges on the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal (CFA), the highest court in Hong Kong.

They took this action because of the severe deterioration in Hong Kong’s political environment and the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) intervening in the judicial process in Hong Kong.

Reed said, “I have concluded, in agreement with the (U.K.) government, that the judges on the Supreme Court cannot continue to sit in Hong Kong without appearing to endorse an administration which has departed from the values of political freedom and freedom of expression.”

Source: Radio Free Asia, March 30, 2022
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/gangtai/al2-03302022131611.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

China-Europe Railway Express Arrived in Moscow

On March 25, a local Chinese newspaper, Hubei Daily, reported that the China-Europe Railway Express, “Yangtze River,” carried 41 containers of goods, left the train station in Xianning, a city located in China’s Hubei province, and departed for Europe.

The contents of the containers on this China-Europe rail train include auto parts, medical supplies, household appliances, and household goods. 41 containers weighed about 770 tons, with a total value of more than 14 million yuan (US$2.20 million). The train hummed through the port of Manzhouli, a city in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and was expected to arrive in Moscow in 14 days after a journey of 9700 kilometers, or about 6000 miles.

Compared with sea freight, railway freight saves at least a month in travel time.

Source: Hubei Daily, March 26, 2022
https://epaper.hubeidaily.net/pc/content/202203/26/content_160930.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Global Times: Australian Prime Minister Refused to See China’s New Ambassador

Global Times recently reported that Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said at a press conference that it was “inappropriate” for him to meet with China’s new ambassador to Australia before Beijing lifts the freeze on ministerial exchanges between Australia and China. In January this year, the new Chinese ambassador made a friendly speech on the day he took office, and then met with people from all walks of life in Australia, showing a very obvious goodwill. Morrison’s preconditions for meeting can be seen as a threat to some extent. However, Morrison said meeting the new Chinese ambassador would be seen as a “weakness” for him. He regarded this as a perfectly proportionate response, especially when China completely cut off minister-to-minister level dialogues between the two countries. He later confirmed, “I assure you, as Prime Minister, this is my last message to China.” Xiao Qian, the 15th Chinese Ambassador to Australia, explained during his meeting with Australian Foreign Minister Payne. He spoke about China’s position and about the relations between the two nations, saying that the China-Australia friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation are in the common interests of both sides. Political analysts expressed the belief that Morrison’s position may be linked to the approaching election. Another specific context for Morrison’s remarks about refusing to meet the Chinese ambassador was the security agreement signed between China and the Solomon Islands.

Source: Global Times, March 28, 2022
https://hqtime.huanqiu.com/share/article/47MusHenhqv

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Foreign Ministry Reiterates: Three “No Limit”s for China-Russia Cooperation

On March 30, Radio France Internationale (RFI) reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in China to participate in the third meeting of the foreign ministers of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries. The meeting was to be held in Tunxi, an ancient town in East China’s Anhui Province. At a press briefing held on the same day, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said, when answering a Reuters reporter’s questions: There is “no limit to China-Russia cooperation, no limit to our pursuit of peace and maintaining security, and no limit to our opposition to hegemony.” China-Russia relations are non-aligned, are not confrontational and do not-target any third country.

The foreign ministers of Pakistan, Iran, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan or their representatives will attend the meeting from Wednesday to Thursday. Qatar and Indonesia will attend as guests. Lavrov will participate in two multinational conferences on Afghanistan along with representatives from Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. This is his first visit to China since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine last month.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the Russian Foreign Minister will also attend a separate Troika meeting with the Chinese and U.S. envoys on Afghanistan. Wang Wenbin said of the Troika meeting, “China, the United States, Russia and Pakistan are all countries with significant influence on the Afghan issue,” 

Unlike many Western countries, China has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion into Ukraine and has lagged behind many others in providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Also, China does not recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan, but has ignored harsh criticism from the United States and other countries. It has kept its embassy in Kabul open and has not commented on Taliban moves to restrict girls’ education and other human rights violations.

Successive Afghan governments have always regarded the country’s mineral resources – estimated at $1 trillion – as a key to a prosperous future, but none have been able to exploit them amid ongoing conflict and violence. Now, several countries including Iran, Russia and Turkey, are seeking to invest in order to fill the vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawal last year.

Alexander Cooley, a humanitarian Columbia University political scientist and expert on Central Asia stated that, at the week’s conference, China will seek to position itself as the leader in humanitarian aid and economic development programs in Afghanistan. It will  also call publicly on the United States to unfreeze the Afghan government’s assets and accounts. Cooley told the Associated Press that, “China is quietly asserting itself as the leading outside force in the region.”  “In doing so, it will position itself as a critic of the U.S. regional policy and as the alternative leader to the humanitarian coalition of Afganistan’s neighbors.”

Source: RFI March 30, 2022
https://rfi.my/8IPB

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China and the Solomon Islands Deepen their Police and Military Ties

Guancha, a Shanghai based news and commentary aggregation service in China, reported that, recently, the Solomon Islands signed a police assistance treaty with China. and “some people got really worried.”

China’s Embassy in the Solomon Islands reported that, on March 14, China’s police advisory team and the Solomon Islands police held an opening ceremony for a Sino-Solomon Islands Police Training Class. Hon. Anthony Veke, Minister of the Police of the Solomon Islands spoke at the ceremony. He expressed sincere gratitude to China for providing COVID prevention materials, police equipment, and police training. He hoped all trainees will proactively study China’s police knowledge, skills, and tactics, efficiently use China provided equipment, and quickly improve their skills in handling riots and sudden events.

On March 22, the Solomon Islands Ministry of Police website showed that its police in the training had started using the simulated guns that China had provided.

The Guancha article then stated, “Some people got really worried” about the cooperation plan. Both the Australian and New Zealand governments expressed their “concerns” about the impact of the Sino-Solomon Islands military cooperation on the (South Pacific’s) regional security.

Reuters reported that the Solomon Islands government confirmed that it was “diversifying the country’s security partnership including that with China,” and that it would sign off on a number of agreements with Beijing “to further create a secure and safe environment for local and foreign investments.” Reuters later reported on a leaked draft security treaty that would allow China’s armed police and its military to protect Chinese projects that are in the Solomon Islands.

Source:
1. Guancha, March 25, 2022
https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2022_03_25_631859.shtml
2. Reuter, March 25, 2022
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/25/australia-nz-concerned-as-solomon-islands-confirm-china-security-deal.html
3. Reuter, March 28, 2022
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/solomons-prime-minister-says-will-not-pick-sides-confirms-security-negotiations-2022-03-28/

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Hu Xijin: Why Russia Is Strategically Very Important to China

Hu Xijin, the former chief editor of the CCP’s mouthpiece Global Times, published an article explaining China’s position in the Russia-Ukraine war. Below is a translation of the article:

“Some people in China have always advocated that we should follow the West in condemning and sanctioning Russia as a nice gesture to improve relations with the United States. This claim is very naive. Let me explain here plainly and clearly why Russia is crucially and strategically important to China.

“The most obvious reason is that China and Russia are mutually supportive diplomatically. This, however, is only the most superficial reason. I don’t need to say more about Russia’s support for China on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet and other issues. The most important thing is the ‘back-to-back’ mutual strategic relationship between China and Russia.

“Let me ask you, who is the number one strategic adversary of the United States today? It is China, not Russia! Now that Russia is in the whirlwind, the United States is putting most of its pressure on Moscow. In the Trump era, Washington wanted to improve its relations with Russia.” Pence once said, “Forget Russia. Please believe that, over time, the primary edge of American pressure will definitely turn back to China. At that time we will feel how valuable it is to have the support of Russia, even just a neutral Russia.”

“Even now, Russia has suddenly taken away a large part of the pressure from the United States. Russia and the United States will be dead (worst) enemies to each other for a long time into the future. Since the trade war began, China has been at the forefront of fighting against U.S. hegemony. Now it is happening that Russia is standing at the forefront. Isn’t it equally significant for China to accumulate power? It is a completely different geopolitical situation for the two countries, China and Russia, to resist U.S. hegemony than for one country to face the U.S. alone.

“The China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the 21st century is very special and its ‘no upper limit’ connotation is a deterrent to the United States. For example, if the United States carries out extreme strategic coercion against China, with Russia as a partner, China will not be afraid of the United States’ energy blockade and our food supply will be more secure, as will many other raw materials. It will be even harder for the United States to make up its mind to have a comprehensive strategic showdown with China.

“In the event of a war between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, China’s conventional forces will increasingly have the power to overwhelm the U.S. military. With Russia as a super-nuclear force hostile to the United States (regardless of whether Moscow supports China at that time or is neutral), it will be more difficult for the United States to deal with China using nuclear blackmail. Because China itself is a feared nuclear power, the United States must also be wary of Russia’s leap from nuclear parity with the United States to nuclear superiority.

“The strengths of China and Russia have strong strategic complementarity. The geopolitical potential formed by the two countries is boundless. For example, the Sino-Russian strategic relationship has a certain potential effect containing Japan. It also has a certain influence on India. Also, importantly, China and Russia together are powerful enough to strategically stabilize Central Asia.

If China and Russia are successfully divided by the United States, today’s Russia will immediately face a strategic dead chess fate. In the future Sino-U.S. conflicts, China will also face a dead chess fate. Today we are facing many challenges and uncertainties in the east and south. If Russia is pulled away by the United States, and China and Russia return to the hostility of the 1970s, China will be back to the 1960s’situation of ‘anti-American imperialist’ and ‘anti-Soviet (revisionist)’ at the same time. Fighting on both fronts, is that conceivable?

Some people suggest to abandon Russia in exchange for reconciliation with the United States. How naive it is to make such a claim. The ultimate goal of the United States on Russia is only to make it no longer a ‘nuclear threat,’ whereas its goal on China is to make China completely lose its development ability and its competitiveness. It is best to divide China into several pieces. Each piece becomes a parallel piece next to Japan, South Korea, and the ASEAN countries so that every individual one is controlled by the U.S. They will buy its weapons, and produce cheap goods for the U.S.

“Those naive Chinese people should stop dreaming. China should not take the initiative to challenge the United States and should try to avoid Sino-U.S. confrontation, but we must use our own strength to make the United States accept peaceful coexistence with China. Russia is China’s most important partner to achieve this goal. Therefore, China can’t do anything against Russia, i.e., against China-Russia relations today. The Chinese government’s balanced stance on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is most in line with China’s actual and long-term national interests.”

Source: ifeng.com, March 20, 2022
https://news.ifeng.com/c/8EXkKXoIC8D

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations