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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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More Taiwanese Foreign Investment in U.S. Than in China, a First in 30 Years

In the near future, Taiwanese investment in mainland China is expected to plunge to around 10% of investment levels seen in 2023. Although some investment data from the end of 2023 have not yet been released, available data suggest that Taiwan’s 2023 investments in the U.S. were about triple those in mainland China, with the U.S. attracting about nine times more investment from Taiwan than in 2022. This marks the first time since 1993, when Taiwanese regulations allowed for investment in China, that America has attracted more Taiwanese funding than China. The decline of Taiwan’s investment in China is attributed both to the economic slowdown affecting the mainland as well as to inability of Taiwan and Mainland China to set aside political issues across the Taiwan Strait.

U.S.-China confrontation has led to punitive tariffs, worsening the business climate for Taiwanese companies operating in China. Another factor driving Taiwanese investment trends are steps taken by Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party government to reduce Taiwan’s economic dependence on China. The DDP under Tsai Ing-Wen even offered financial incentives for Taiwanese companies operating in China to move their production back onshore to Taiwan.

Data show that Taiwan’s total foreign investment approvals from January-November 2023 rose 87% year-over-year to $25.7 billion. Meanwhile, Taiwanese investments into mainland China dropped 34% during the same period, falling to just $2.9 billion or 12% of total foreign investment approvals. Back in 2010 when Taiwan and China signed the landmark Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, 84% of Taiwan’s investment went to the mainland. That fell to 34% in 2022 and was 12% in 2023.

Approvals for Taiwanese investments in Europe and the U.S. have surged, with investments in the U.S. for January through November of 2023 totaled $9.6 billion, nine times higher than the same period in 2022. Taiwan’s 2023 investments in Europe and the U.S. comprised 37% of total Taiwanese overseas investment. Taiwan’s investments in Germany rose 25-fold to $3.9 billion (15%), exceeding investments in mainland China figure. Taiwanese investments in semiconductor facilities and other technology are playing a key role in driving this trend.

Source: Nikkei, January 2, 2024
https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/china/ccompany/54450-2024-01-02-08-47-53.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Lianhe Zaobao: China’s Weibo Blocked “Taiwanese Election” Search Results on Election Day

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections took place on January 13, and Mainland Chinese netizens were paying close attention to the election results. After voting began at 8 a.m. that day, the relevant term “Taiwan Election” was on the “hot search ranking list” on Weibo, one of the largest social media platforms in Mainland China. The number of views on the topic quickly reached 163.2 million. However, the popular topic was soon blocked on Weibo.

Before the “Taiwan Elections” topic was blocked, many Mainland Chinese netizens posted comments and discussion on this topic. Some netizens called for improving relations between Mainland China and Taiwan after the Taiwanese election, and some netizens expressed their hopes for the DPP’s presidential candidate Lai Ching-te to win the election so that the Chinese military would “unify by force” sooner. (Taiwan’s DDP party, which won the presidency in the election, is the party that’s most opposed to cooperation with Beijing.)

Since Chinese official media, including Xinhua News Agency, CCTV News and People’s Daily, had very little coverage of the Taiwan election that day, some netizens asked on Weibo: “Is today the voting day for Taiwan? Why is there no news coverage?” Many related topics were blocked on Weibo as well. The Spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a press conference two days earlier that “the United States must not interfere in Taiwan’s elections in any form” – this quote remained visible on Weibo.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, January 13, 2024
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20240113-1461930

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Social Stability

UDN: China’s Exports Fell 4.6 Percent Last Year

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently ran a report on official 2023 data published by the China’s General Customs Administration. According the data, which are denominated in U.S. dollars, 2023 exports fell by 4.6 percent year-over-year, imports fell by 5.5 percent year over year, and aggregate imports and exports decreased by 5.0 percent year-over-year. China’s annual trade surplus was US$823.22 billion.

The last time that China experienced a decline in USD-denominated exports was seven years ago, in 2016, when exports fell by 7.7 percent.

At the “2023 Imports and Exports Press Conference” held by China’s State Council Information Office, official RMB-denominated data were released. Priced in RMB, China’s 2023 exports increased by 0.6 percent year-over-year, imports decreased by 0.3 percent year-over-year, and aggregate imports and exports increased by 0.2 percent year-over-year.

 

Chinese YoY Trade Growth, 2023
in USD in RMB
Exports -4.6% +0.6%
Imports -5.5% -0.3%
Aggregate -5.0% +0.2%

 

Wang Lingjun, deputy director of China’s General Customs Administration, said “the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment have increased. To further promote the stable growth of international trade, China needs to overcome some difficulties and make more efforts.”

Source: UDN, January 12, 2024
https://udn.com/news/story/7333/7703838

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

China no Longer Top U.S. Supplier, a First in 17 Years

Nikkei Chinese Edition recently reported that U.S. imports from China during the period January to November, 2023, decreased by more than 20 percent compared with the same period in 2022. Although import data for December 2023 have not yet been released, it seems highly probably that U.S. imports from Mexico will surpass imports from China for the calendar year 2023.

There is a clear trend in the United States of “friend-shoring,” i.e. changing the source of imports from China to other countries who are more closely aligned with the U.S. This trend of relocating supply chains has been particularly rapid in categories of imports such as electronic products, previously highly dependent on imports from China. In terms of smartphones, imports from China decreased 10 percent year-over-year during the period from January to November. Meanwhile, electronic product imports from India expanded by a factor of five. For laptop computers, U.S. imports from China decreased by about 30 percent, while imports from Vietnam’s increased by a factor of four.

In 2023, U.S. imports from Europe and Southeast Asia increased, and imports from the European Union (EU) hit a new high during the period January to November, 2023. Although the import volume from ASEAN countries decreased year-over-year, this year’s imports from the ASEAN region were still the second highest in history, with the share of imports from ASEAN countries double that of 10 years ago.

In order to mitigate geopolitical risks, multinational corporations have widely adopted a “China + 1” strategy, diversifying their supply chains to avoid overreliance on China.

Source: Nikkei Chinese, January 10, 2024
https://cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/investtrade/54529-2024-01-10-09-54-58.html?start=0

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Wang Huning on Building “Christianity With Chinese Characteristics”

Xinhua reported that the 11th National Congress of Chinese Christianity was held in Beijing from December 20 to 21. Wang Huning, a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee and Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), met with members of the leadership of the national Christian congress.

Wang Huning stressed “adherence to the sinicization of Christianity in China, following the principles of being independent [from Western Christianity] and self-managed, and providing doctrinal interpretations that align with contemporary China’s development, socialist core values, and traditional Chinese culture. [Chinese Christians] must adhere to comprehensive and strict governance of religious practice, conduct religious activities in accordance with laws and regulations, and build a team of religious professionals who are politically reliable, knowledgeable in religion, morally influential, and capable of playing a crucial role at critical time.”

Source: Xinhua, December 24, 2023
http://www.news.cn/mrdx/2023-12/24/c_1310756999.htm

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

China’s “Cultural Enterprises” Expanding Overseas

People’s Daily reported that many Chinese culture enterprises — companies providing culture-related services and entertainment or selling products related to China’s culture heritage — have been expanding to the global market in recent years.

The People’s Daily report gave the following examples of cultural enterprises: Chinese TV series with Chinese culture elements, such as silk embroidery, qipao (traditional Chinese dress), jade carving, etc, have become popular online; commercial virtual reality videos to show undersea world near the coast of China; and companies hosting online livestreams of the Peking Opera performance.

At China’s 2023 Cultural, Trade, Investment and Financing Expo in Hefei City, Anhui Province, approximately 1,000 companies from both domestic and international origins participated. The expo showcased over ten thousand cultural products and various distinctive artistic skills.

Source: People’s Daily, January 3, 2024
http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0103/c1002-40151847.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China Launches Nationwide University Probe into Retracted Research Papers to Address Academic Integrity Crisis

Given the large number of withdrawals of papers published by Chinese scholars in international journals, China’s Ministry of Education has recently required universities to launch self-checks of retracted papers.  Education departments in several provinces followed suit, also mandating self-checks of retracted papers. Numerous Chinese schools have made announcements on the topic, saying that publishers’ retractions of Chinese papers in 2023 has negatively impacted China’s academic reputation.

Wuhan University has reviewed papers from the past three years. Shandong University requested that all faculty and graduate students comprehensively identify retracted papers. The Henan Education Department received a ministry list of retracted papers from China’s Ministry of Education and has asked schools to investigate papers on the list, verifying each paper’s research process and data acquisition. Verified academic transgressions will be “dealt with” by Henan’s Education Department.

Around 30 Chinese universities conducted similar reviews in mid-2023, citing a ministry notice issued in April 2023 calling for the clean up academic misconduct dating back to 2018.

China publishes the second most papers in the Science Citation Index (SCI), following only the United States. The rate of paper retractions by Chinese scholars is very high, accounting for 52% of all SCI retractions in 2022 out of 5,488 worldwide. The main reasons for retraction are that papers come from “research paper mills,” contain plagiarism, contain unreliable data, or that peer review fraud occurred.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), January 4, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202401040296.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China Detains Alleged MI6 Spy

China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) announced on Monday (January 8th) that the head of a foreign consulting firm, surnamed Huang, was found to be spying for the British foreign intelligence agency MI6. According to MSS, Huang was recruited by MI6 in 2015 and established an “intelligence cooperation relationship” with them.

MSS claims that MI6 instructed Huang to enter China several times using his identity as a cover to collect China-related intelligence and identify potential recruits for MI6. Huang allegedly provided his MI6 handlers with “9 classified-level state secrets, 5 secret-level state secrets, and 3 intelligence reports.”

MSS states that MI6 provided Huang with professional intelligence training in the UK and equipped him with special espionage gear to facilitate intelligence gathering in China. Chinese national security authorities allegedly uncovered evidence of Huang’s espionage and have taken him into criminal custody. No further details (besides the surname) were provided regarding Huang’s identity, current status, or location. The MSS announcement did not elaborate on Huang’s background, which consulting firm Huang was running, or who his MI6 handlers were.

Source: Deutsche Welle, January 8, 2024
https://p.dw.com/p/4ayJ9

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend