Chinascope – Page 704

Xinhua: HSBC January Chinese Manufacturing PMI Read Low

Xinhua recently reported that HSBC released its January PMI final number for the Chinese manufacturing sector. The number 49.7 represents the second month in a row that the figure remained below 50. The sub-indicator of employment is 49.5. Many experts suggested that the government may have to adjust its policies, which means possible interest rate cuts in the first quarter or some other similar policies. Some read the new PMI number as a sign of an “unexpected low level of economic activities.” According to Qu Hongbin, HSBC Chief Economist of the Grand China Region, both new domestic orders and export orders are declining. The unemployment number reached a 15 month low. The manufacturing sector is still suffering from a low level of demand. Qu suggested that the government should relax both its currency and its financial policies. PMI is an indicator of financial activity reflecting purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. A PMI number below 50 typically reflects a decline.

Source: Xinhua, February 2, 2015

http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2015-02/02/c_127448257.htm

Briefings | | February 11, 2015 | Economy/Resources

Yuan Guiren: Young Teachers and Students in College Are Hostile Forces’ Main Targets of Infiltration

Chinese Minister of Education Yuan Guiren published an article in the latest issue (3rd issue, 2015) of the Qiushi (Seeking Truth) magazine talking about propaganda and ideological education in colleges. The title of the article was, "Eye on the Larger Direction and the Larger Issues; In This New Situation, Put Enough Effort into Propaganda Work in Universities." Yuan pointed out that the hostile forces infiltrate and focus on dividing such groups as young teachers and students. In recent years, some countries have regarded China’s development and growth as a challenge to the model of their system and to their values. They have [therefore] stepped up their penetration with more subtle and diverse methods. [1]

On January 29, 2015, the Office of CPC Central Committee and the State Council held an Education Ministry forum on how to implement the direction "on further strengthening and improving the propaganda and ideological education in colleges in the new situation." At the forum, Yuan Guiren said that university teachers must adhere to the political bottom line, the legal bottom line, and the moral bottom line. Yuan pointed out that, for the implementation of the "direction," [we] must strengthen the management of universities’ ideological positions; strengthen the management of the use of original materials from Western countries; not allow the spread of Western values into our classroom materials; never allow remarks attacking and defaming the [Communist] Party’s leadership and discrediting socialism to appear in university classrooms; never allow speech that violates the Constitution and the laws to spread in university classrooms; and never allow teachers to complain, vent grievances in the classroom, or transfer negative emotions to the students. [2]

Sources: Guancha and Xinhua, February 2, 2015, and January 29, 2015

[1] http://m.guancha.cn/Education/2015_02_02_308299 http://www.moe.edu.cn/publicfiles/business/htmlfiles/moe/moe_176/201402/163736.html

[2] http://news.xinhuanet.com/edu/2015-01/29/c_1114183715.htm

Briefings | | February 6, 2015 | Government/Politics

Qiushi: Be a Fighter, not a Gentleman

Qiushi published an article highlighting the importance of ideological education in China’s universities and colleges. The article stated, “In recent years, the dominant position of Marxism in the ideological field has been consolidated and strengthened. People have a deeper understanding of the path, system, and theory of socialism with Chinese characteristics. However, noises from erroneous ideas that reject Marxism and reject open-door reform appear from time to time. … [We] must not be timid and fearful, simply standing by and watching in silence. … [We] should be fighters, not ‘gentlemen.’”

The article recommended that the authorities allocate special funds to conduct research and development in support of the propaganda and ideological education in universities and colleges.

Source: Qiushi, February 5, 2015

http://www.qstheory.cn/zhuanqu/zywz/2015-02/05/c_1114258337.htm

Briefings | | February 6, 2015 | Government/Politics

Chinese Media on the “One Belt, One Road” Strategy

Recently, Chinese media have published several articles discussing the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, which is a major diplomacy and economic development strategy for China.

The term "One Belt, One Road" ("一带一路") refers to the "Silk Road Economic Belt" ("丝绸之路经济带"), which includes China, Central and West Asian countries, and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" ("21世纪海上丝绸之路"). It connects China, ASEAN member nations, South Asia, Africa, and Europe.

This combined economic zone contains a population of 4.4 billion. With 26 countries and regions, the size of its economy is $ 21 trillion. In the next ten years, China’s exports are expected to count for one third of the imports to these countries and China is likely to invest $1.6 trillion in this zone.

According to Baidu’s definition, "[this term] is not a physical entity or mechanism, but rather a concept involving cooperation and initiative. The purpose is to develop a partnership of economic cooperation between China and the countries in the zone and to build a community with political trust, economic integration, and a common fate and responsibility."

The following is a summary of key viewpoints from these media, some of which even contradict each other.

China Review News:
1. Investing in countries in this economic zone is more for political considerations than for economic reasons. In fact, many investments in Central Asia and South Asia involve infrastructure construction projects that have a low economic return. Though many countries have low labor costs, their poor infrastructure and strong labor unions jeopardize their investment environment.
2. The Southeast Asian region might be the first area in which China has a breakthrough, due to the large Chinese population and their stable political environments. Their exports of food and oil can help China to lower its security risk on food and the supply of resources.

Qiushi:
This strategy can enable China to develop a tight economic and trade relationship and common interest partnerships with emerging economies and developed European countries. This can counter the U.S.’ "Asia-Pacific Rebalance" strategy and relieve the pressure of China’s overproduction and of its being forced into the heavy purchase of U.S. debt.

Xinhua:
China should focus on the "belt" (land) instead of the "road" (sea). This is because on the sea side, China will face strong resistance from ASEAN countries on its exports. This relates to their own domestic policies and can’t be completely influenced by China’s investment in their countries.

Stock Times:
The globalization of the renminbi and developing renminbi offshore trading centers are critical steps in the "One Belt, One Road" plan. China has made good progress in issuing renminbi bonds, setting up renminbi offshore trading centers (e.g. in Frankfurt and London) and offshore markets (Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and London), and in signing currency swap agreements with 28 countries.

Sources:
1. Baidu
http://baike.baidu.com/view/12241799.htm
2. China Review News, January 18, 2015
http://hk.crntt.com/doc/1035/7/9/4/103579473.html?coluid=202&kindid=11695&docid=103579473&mdate=0118095339
3. Qiushi Online, January 21, 2015
http://www.qstheory.cn/freely/2015-01/21/c_1114074599.htm
4. Xinhua, January 27, 2015
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2015-01/27/c_127424890.htm
5. Stock Times Online, January 26, 2015
http://www.stcn.com/2015/0126/11988834.shtml

Briefings | | February 4, 2015 | Geo-Strategic Trend

Xi Jinping: If a Great Famine Occurs, Money Will Be Useless.

On February 1, 2015, China Gate published two articles on the No. 1 Official Document of 2015, which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee had released. The first article included the original content of the document with the title, “The Release of the CCP Central Committee No.1 Official Document of 2015; One Picture (the Table of Contents) Tells You All.” The second article was an analytical article about the message included in the No. 1 Document. It had the title “Zhongnanhai (the headquarters of the CCP) Is Hiding a Big Problem behind the CCP No.1 Document.” The No.1 Document focused on China’s agriculture issues. Some Chinese scholars told the media that, “Something must be wrong with China’s grain reserves. The CCP Central Committee just does not want to admit it openly. They are hiding the problem.” Actually, Xi Jinping openly expressed his worries about food safety on multiple occasions back in 2013: “If a Great Famine Occurs, Money Will Be Useless.”

Rice, wheat, and corn have been China’s staple food. This year, potatoes will be included as the fourth-largest staple food in China. According to a Chinese scholar, either industry has used up China’s surface water or it is severely polluted. Groundwater is also very limited now. Potato’s production is relatively high and can sustain drought. Using potatoes as a staple food will help to alleviate the food crisis." The article concluded, “Almost all of the downfalls of the dynasties in China’s history started with a Great Famine.”

Source: China Gate, February 1, 2015
http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2015/02/01/3998139.html
http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2015/02/01/3996483.html

Briefings | | February 4, 2015 | Economy/Resources

NBD: State Council Pushes Industrial Exports

National Business Daily (NBD), one of the three major comprehensive financial and economic dailies in China, recently reported that the State Council Executive Meeting just passed the decision to push industrial level exports in the areas of railway building, nuclear power plants and construction material assembly lines. The goal is to lift the level of international industrial cooperation and to identify new export growth channels. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang suggested that China should push hard on industrial upgrades and the Chinese exports should expand on the sides of medium and high end large equipment. Also in the plan of the “new international cooperation models” are high speed railways and trains, aviation, and telecommunications. The State Council expressed the belief that, in addition to “product exports” and “capital exports,” it is time for “industrial exports.”

Source: National Business Daily, January 29, 2015

http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2015-01-29/894243.html

Briefings | | February 3, 2015 | Economy/Resources

Shanghai Gave up Its Official GDP Goal

Well-known Chinese news site Sina recently reported that the City of Shanghai officially announced it was giving up on the 2015 GDP growth goal it had set earlier. This is the first large city in China to stop using GDP as one of the primary indicators to measure its economy. The mayor set a new goal, which is to maintain “stable growth” and to continue with economic optimization and quality improvements. The Chinese GDP growth rate used to be one of the highest in the world. However the rate has been declining in recent years. Chinese President Xi Jinping suggested last year that China cannot continue measuring economic growth simply by looking at GDP numbers. In the past, GDP had become the single most important measurement of the government’s performance. This resulted in a large number of inefficient investments and in the loss of balanced development. The Chinese central government typically announces its GDP goal in March at the National People’s Congress conference.

Source: Sina, January 26, 2014

http://finance.sina.com/gb/wsj-ftchinese/ftchinese/20150126/01461200323.html

Briefings | | February 3, 2015 | Economy/Resources

Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.