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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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China Won’t Use War to Destroy Japan but Will Use a Protracted Fight to Make it Suffer Chronic Pain

Huanqiu [under People’s Daily] published a commentary claiming that, in case the conflict between them escalates into war, China will let Japan suffer long-term chronic pain instead of a one-time hit. Below are some selected excerpts from the article.

"Japan announced that it would consider "shooting down" China’s drone if it flew over the Diaoyu Islands. China’s Defense Ministry spokesman responded by saying that, if the Japan were to do so, it would be an ‘act of war.’ The Chinese side would certainly and decisively ‘fight back.’" 
"Today, the official exchange of words between China and Japan no longer avoids such words as ‘shooting down,’ ‘war,’ and so on. Japanese media keep shouting about ‘besieging’ China. The possibility of the Sino-Japanese friction escalating into military conflict is becoming more and more real."  
"We believe that China must be clear about what we really want to fight for in the conflict over the Diaoyu Islands and what we should insist on in the escalating fight with Japan." 
"War is probably a hurdle that China needs to step over. We need to cross it mentally." 
"We should not have illusions that, once the war starts, that we can ‘destroy Japan.’ We need to do serious damage to Japan and let its losses be ‘slightly bigger’ than China’s. We should fight a protracted war with Japan and make it suffer long-term chronic pain. China will not use the war to ‘destroy Japan.’ China will ultimately crush Japan with the increase in its strength. In fact, what Japan fears most is China’s calmness and lasting determination."

Source: People’s Daily, October 28, 2013 
http://military.people.com.cn/n/2013/1028/c1011-23346411.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Qiushi: Next Ten Years Will See Fundamental Changes

Xu Jian, a research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, who leads the National Social Science Fund Project, "The International Environment and China’s Strategic Opportunity," wrote an article that was published  in Qiushi magazine (Seeking Truth), a bi-monthly political theory periodical published by the Central Party School and the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.  

Xu wrote that, compared to the first decade of the 21st century, the next decade will see a major change rather than a mere continuation of the past. The change involves the transformation and upgrading of China’s development, which will be different from the rapid expansion that occurred in the past 10 years. This is the critical difference. It reflects that the trend for China will transform from a model of rapid expansion to a model that focuses on intense development to enhance quality. Xu expressed that this major change will bring about fundamental changes in government functions, economic structure, industrial policies, and other changes in society. 
Source: Qiushi, October 30, 2013 
http://www.qstheory.cn/zz/zgtsshzyll/201310/t20131030_284033.htm
Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Government Think Tank on Upcoming Party Meeting’s Agenda of Reform

Chi Fulin, an economist and Deputy Director of the China Institute for Reform and Development, a government think tank, made some predictions about the Third Session of the 18th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party to be held from November 9 to 12 in Beijing. Chi looked at its agenda on economic reform.   
Chi stated that the factors of production that China has relied on, such as resources, land, and labor are diminishing, while social problems are increasing. Economic, social, and management transformation will depend on China making a major breakthrough in reform. He believes that, if the reform is successful, China’s economy may maintain moderate growth for another five to 10 years. 
Chi predicted that the six points made by Xi Jinping back on July 23, 2013, have set the theme for the upcoming Third Session of the 18th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The six points are to form a nation-wide, market oriented system, to further strengthen economic revitalization, to increase macro-economic control, to improve social justice and fairness, and to enhance the ability of the Communist Party to rule China. 
Source: China Review News, October 30, 2013 
http://www.zhgpl.com/doc/1028/3/4/4/102834458.html?coluid=151&kindid=0&docid=102834458&mdate=1030221536
Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Why Has China Pulled the Mysterious Cover Off Its Nuclear Submarine Force?

Recently, China’s major media have all used their most prominent positions to report on the development of the PLA’s nuclear submarine force over the last 42 years, breaking the long-standing mystery surrounding China’s nuclear submarine force. 

Qiushi, the leading journal interpreting the policies of the Chinese Communist Party, published an article to offer some explanations as to why China has suddenly highly touted its once secret PLA force: 
One is to highlight the important role of the national strategic weapon of its nuclear submarine force and to let the public know that the Chinese sea-based strategic deterrent forces have been formed for a long time and are very reliable. 
Another is to deter some countries that attempt to assault China with ulterior motives. In today’s world, certain countries or groups always regard China as a thorny hostile country and hope to get rid of it. They always contemplate the use of war or even a nuclear strike against China. [Therefore], China must maintain an appropriate nuclear attack and nuclear retaliatory capability. Unleashing the cover of the Chinese nuclear submarine force, China intends to warn those countries hostile to China that China’s nuclear retaliatory capability is strong and that China has the ability to compete and to effectively safeguard its national security. 
Source: Qiushi, October 28, 2013 
http://www.qstheory.cn/zz/wwtj/201310/t20131028_283222.htm
Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

China Exim Bank’s Paris Branch Officially Open

The Export and Import Bank of China’s branch in Paris, France officially opened for business on October 29. This is China Exim Bank’s first overseas business branch. More than 100 people, including French politicians, the financial and business community, as well as representatives from the EU mission attended the opening ceremony. The president of China Exim Bank, Li Ruogu, Chinese Embassy official Wu Xilin, and the Managing Director of the Invest in France Agency, Serge Boscher, jointly inaugurated the Paris branch.

Li Ruogu said that the Paris branch will offer China Exim Bank a financial service platform closer to the European market and customers and will provide a full range of more convenient specialized financial services for Sino-French and Sino-European companies. Wu Xilin said that, with China Exim Bank’s Paris branch, three Chinese banks now have a foothold in Paris. This indicates that China’s banks are paying increasing attention to Paris for its role of international financial center and are confident in the prospects for Sino-French economic and trade cooperation.

Boscher said that France hopes the trend of investment from China can be sustained and expanded. The establishment of China Exim Bank’s Paris branch indicates not only that one Chinese enterprise has entered the French market, but that more Chinese enterprises will be driven by its financial support to invest in France.

Source: Xinhua, October 30, 2013
http://news.xinhuanet.com/2013-10/30/c_117932206.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Scholar: Major Economic Problems in China

The economist Gao Liankui wrote a commentary that was published in Hexun on a book that Yang Guoying wrote on the current economic problems that China faces. The economic problems that Yang identified are internal inflation and deflation, investment issues, revenue from taxation, external financial risks, and Chinese enterprises going overseas. 

According to Yang, if deflation continues for a long time, a strong and negative cycle will likely form in which recession leads to serious deflation. This would seriously accelerate the economic recession even further. 
As for the excessive investments that local governments make, it is because of these governments’ credibility and their guarantee of highly transferable assets such as land that local governments have been able to increase their debts in spite of the central government’s prohibition. 
On the deficit that local governments’ excessive investments have caused, Yang also expressed concern that the negative cycle of the increase in the deficit and of economic growth have entered an extremely dangerous phase. 
Yang also noted that the obstacles that Chinese companies face when going overseas have changed from pressure from international competitors to resistance from governments in developed countries. It comes in the form of technical resistance, intellectual property rights resistance, and political resistance. 
Yang observed that from the experiences of several Chinese companies, the excessive use of financial instruments originally meant as a hedge against risks may actually bring further risks to China’s manufacturing. 
Source: Hexun.com, October 29, 2013 
http://opinion.hexun.com/2013-10-29/159161277.html
Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Sina Weibo Microblog: Five Major Chinese-Style Ways to Solve Problems

Recently, a post originally on Sina Weibo, a Chinese microblogging website, has been circulating online in China. The post, the original of which cannot be found, summarized five major Chinese-style methods to solve problems in China.

1) Take a judicial route if you have connections with the authorities and also have a lot of money;
2) Take a media route if you have connections with the authorities but do not have much money;
3) Take a bribery route if you do not have any connections with authorities but do have a lot of money;
4) Take a violence route if you have neither connections nor money;
5) Take a self-destruction route if you have no connections, no money, and do not want to take violent action.
    
Source: Boxun, October 29, 2013
http://www.boxun.com/news/gb/pubvp/2013/10/201310290746.shtml#.Um7-ml7D_DU

Briefings | | |   Grapevine

Study Times: “No Political and Security Conditions for North Korea to Give up Their Nuclear Weapons”

Study Times, the newspaper that the Party School of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party runs, published an article about restarting the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear weapons program. The article criticized the “passive attitude” of the United States, Japan, and South Korea toward China’s effort to resume the meetings. According to the article, there are currently no political or security conditions for North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. “Even if North Korea abandoned its nuclear weapons program, the United States would not stand down from the pace at which it is returning to East Asia. Instead, it (a North Korea without nuclear weapons) would cause the U.S. to speed up its strategic advance."

The prerequisite for solving the North Korean nuclear weapons problem, the article asserted, is for there to be an official end to the Korean War and to let the DPRK and the U.S. sign a friendly peace treaty. Under the protection of International law, North Korea would have a stronger ability to resist U.S. hegemonism. The article further listed four conditions that the United States and other relevant countries must provide before there can be a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Source: Study Times, October 28, 2013
http://www.studytimes.com.cn:9999/epaper/xxsb/html/2013/10/28/02/02_39.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend