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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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On the New Requirements for Party Development Work at the Grassroots Level

Guangming Daily published an article exploring ideas on the new requirements for Party development work at the grassroots level including how to comply with the current situation while coping with new challenges resulting from social and economic development. The article suggested that, in order to cope with the constant job changes and urbanization, the grass roots Party unit can be set up as the “community based” Party unit in addition to the traditional work unit or residential association based unit. The article also emphasized the need to strengthen the Party unit’s scientific operation at the grassroots level in the new informational technology era. It stated that, currently, the Party cadres are lacking the ability to conduct grassroots work using the new media and guiding public opinion. Therefore, it urgently needs group Party cadres who can be professionally trained to manage the Party members properly, as they are constantly on the move, and who are able to utilize the Internet to host Party organizational activities.

Source: Guangming Daily, October 3, 2013
http://dangjian.gmw.cn/2013-10/03/content_9078897.htm

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

People’s Daily: The Only Thing the U.S. Wants Is To Be the Dominant Power in the Middle East

People Daily published an article commenting that U.N. resolution 2118 will not be able to restrict the U.S. from taking military action against Syria in the future. The following is an excerpt from the article:

On September 27, 2013, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2118 on the issue of Syria’s chemical weapons. This means that the U.S. will temporarily suspend its military strike against Syria. … The result did not come easily. It was not only a fight between the United States and the international peace forces, but also a contest between the U.S. and the Russian military power. However, this compromise represents only a temporary peace. The resolution also left a "back door" for the U.S. to strike Syria [in the future]. 

A U.S. military strike against Syria has the intention of accelerating the shift in strategic focus "eastward." … In order to speed up the adjustment of its strategic focus, the United States needs to accelerate its deployment of troops to shift in direction from the Middle East to the Asia Pacific. However, today the United States does not have a commanding control over the security of the Middle East. This is an important reason that restricts the United States from deploying its troops eastward. Following the removal of Saddam, Gaddafi, and other stumbling blocks, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad became the next block in the Middle East that the United States is eager to move away. "Chemical Weapons" is merely an excuse for the United States to occupy the moral high ground. 
Reading carefully, one sees that the resolution contains content allowing that the Security Council can take measures under the "UN Charter" Chapter VII in the event of non-compliance with the resolution. This is a major concession that Russia made. The United States specifically emphasized this point, implying that the U.S. has left itself a "back door" to further strike Syria [in the future]. This means that even after the destruction of the Syrian chemical weapons, the U.S. will still likely find an excuse for its military strike operations. It’s like the old Libya: after it surrendered the right to develop and produce nuclear weapons, the U.S. still overthrew the Gaddafi regime.  
In the future battle between the United States and Russia, military pressure against the Bashar al-Assad regime will be the U.S.’s determined policy. Syria’s chemical weapons will be the main theme for the battle. The U.S. will likely continue to seek other moral justification for war. Russia and others in the international community may use the tactics of "an eye for an eye [letting them have a taste of their own medicine]." That is, using the grounds that Syrian has given up its chemical weapons, they may support Syria with international public opinion to curb the possibility of the United States taking military action. 
Source: People’s Daily, October 2, 2013 
http://military.people.com.cn/n/2013/1002/c172467-23098146.html
Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

PLA Official: Military Logistics Must Serve the Objectives of a Strong Military Force

On October 1, 2013, Zhao Keshi, a member on the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party who serves as the head of General Logistics Department of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), wrote an article that was published in Qiushi about Xi Jinping’s remarks on building up the PLA’s logistics. 

Zhao stated that Xi requires that, to build a strong military force, efforts must be made to build up the PLA’s logistics in order to 1) ensure winning in modern warfare; 2) support the modernization of China’s military forces, and 3) transform information technology (the three build-ups). 
Zhao stated that to do so, “logistics must be placed under the absolute leadership of the Communist Party and [the PLA] must resolutely follow and implement the orders of the Party’s command.” He recognized that “the logistics personnel have more direct and open interactions with society, tend to be well educated, and may easily be influenced by social thoughts.” Therefore, he called for enforced political education to “ensure that they follow directions in peacetime, carry out the orders of their commanders during wartime, and remain unswerving at critical moments with no questions asked.” 

Source: Qiushi, October 1, 2013 
http://www.qstheory.cn/zxdk/2013/201319/201309/t20130927_275406.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Waves of Bankruptcies Emerging in Ten Industries

On September 30, Chinese Business Wisdom published a commentary saying that bankruptcies in 10 industries have been on the rise and that waves of bankruptcies are probably not far away. 

1) Shipbuilding. For example, China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings Ltd, a leading shipbuilding company, saw its 2012 revenues slashed by 50 percent. 
2) The iron and steel industry. As banks are short of cash to pay their depositors, small steel mills will most likely be the hardest hit.
3) The LED Industry. The downfall of the Junduoli Enterprise Group in 2011 touched off the bankruptcies of several LED companies. In the next couple of years, as many as 60 percent of the remaining several thousand LED companies may not survive. 
4) The Furniture Industry. Orient Homes, once the largest home improvement companies in China, has applied for bankruptcy to close down its stores. 
5) Small to mid-size Real Estate Developers. In the next three years, at least one-third of the real estate developers will close their doors. Estimates are that the number of companies will drop from 50,000 to 35,000. 
6) The Cargo Shipping Business. In 2012, three companies that are listed on the stock exchange were up to 14 billion yuan in the red. This followed a 10.4 billion yuan loss in 2011. 
7) Trust and Financial Institutions. In less than 6 years, trusts have grown substantially. The number of financial trades they conduct is now second only to banks. Since the beginning of this year, several trusts petitioned to extend the due dates of their loans and were rejected. 
8) Financial Management Companies. They have been under pressure from their competitors, the trusts. Unless they receive funds from private equity or an injection of funds from their shareholders, up to 600 financial management companies may fail. 
9) Private Equity. Private equity has gained a negative reputation because many of its investors ended up involved in Ponzi schemes. It is estimated that 90 percent of all private equity investment firms will close in 2013. 
10) Group-buying. In March 2010, group buying went viral. As of the end of the first half of 2013, 4,570 group buying websites had closed down. The figure represents nearly 75 percent of the total of 6,218 in the group buying industry. 
Source: Chinese Business Wisdom, September 30, 2013 
http://www.bwchinese.com/article/1047225.html
Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China Goes After Mobile News Apps

The State Internet Information Office, an agency under the State Council, recently issued a directive that demands the "rectification" of mobile news apps that "obtain Internet news illegally or conduct Internet news services illegally." It named news aggregator Zaker, which has 17.5 million users, and Chouti, which uses the slogan "Publish what shouldn’t be published," as being among those failing to comply with government guidelines.

Some of the apps provide Chinese users the news from overseas and foreign media, including those banned by the authorities, such as New York Times. The government demands all mobile news apps register with the authorities in charge of Internet information and meet the appropriate qualifications. All mobile apps stores are also forbidden to provide uploading or downloading and other services for illegal news apps.

This move comes after Chinese police conducted an intensive campaign to strike "Internet rumors." Earlier this month the Chinese Supreme People’s Court and the Supreme People’s Procuratorate issued a judicial interpretation that the use of the Internet for slandering and defamation that leads to mass incidents causes "serious harm to the social order and the national interest," which should be characterized as a criminal offense subject to the investigation of police and prosecution by the People’s Procuratorate.

Source: BBC Chinese, September 30, 2013
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/china/2013/09/130930_china_news_apps_closure.shtml

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology

People’s Daily: So Many U.S. “Osprey” Come to the Asia-Pacific. What Prey Do their Claws Seek?

People’s Daily published a report about the U.S. deployment of the "Osprey" at a military base in Japan. Below is an excerpt from the report:

On September 25, 2013, the last of the second batch of United States Marine Corps’ 12 newly deployed "Ospreys" arrived at Futenma Airfield. This brings the total number of "Ospreys" that have settled down at the U.S. military base in Japan to 24. … [The U.S. move] once again caused widespread concern among all related parties in the surrounding areas. 
In less than a year’s time, the U.S. transferred such a large group of "Ospreys" across the oceans. It is clearly not to make a sightseeing tour, but to come for “fishing.” Why does the U.S. come here for “fishing?” What are the "Osprey’s" claws seeking? 
Senior U.S. officials did not disguise in the slightest the strategic purpose of the "Osprey." … U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Carter has stated publicly that the "Osprey" is indispensable to fulfilling Obama’s new strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, strengthening the Japan-US alliance, and enhancing the ability of deterrence. A former official of the U.S. State Department said directly to Japanese media that an important objective in deploying the "Osprey" in Japan is a joint "defense" of the Diaoyu Islands with Japan. Kyodo News reported that the U.S. government stated that the "Osprey" will significantly improve the strength of the U.S. Marine Corps [in Japan] and help counter the increasingly active Chinese maritime activities. 
The U.S. "Osprey" comes in droves, and keeps hovering in the sky around our country. We should not only pay attention to the "Osprey," but also be alert to the fisherman behind the "Osprey." Only by keeping vigilant and maintaining a firm hold on the shotgun will we be able to protect the "fish" from being harmed by the "Osprey." 

Source: People’s Daily, September 27, 2013 
http://military.people.com.cn/n/2013/0927/c1011-23058932.html

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Totalitarian State Has Caused an Economic Crisis in China

Niu Dao, a popular commentator on real estate and finance in China, stated in a blog at sina.com that the totalitarian Communist regime is bringing about an unprecedented economic crisis in China and that the five year real estate bubble will burst soon. 

 “In totalitarian economy countries … as long as the economy has few problems, the government will find ways to cover things up so that the crisis will not break out. The government’s mentality is that they do not want the economic crisis to spread and become a social crisis. So large bubbles mask small bubbles, and, due to such a cover-up, small problems grow into big conflicts that cannot be resolved. Finally the situation evolves into a full crisis, leading to the disintegration of the government or the dictator stepping down.” Niu cited the examples of former Soviet Union, Romania, Albania, Khmer Rouge, and East Germany. He stated that the upcoming crisis in China will be an unprecedented crisis in history. 
To support his analysis, Niu discussed several factors, including the following: 
In the past three consecutive years, investment accounted for 40 percent of China’s GDP. Investments and exports combined accounted for over 70 percent of China’s GDP. The government has created the housing bubble. Once the bubble bursts, a massive number of developers will go bankrupt. 
The drastic appreciation of the Chinese yuan in a short period of time is extremely rare in history. The real purchasing power of one million yuan today is less than that of 10,000 yuan 30 years ago, and has decreased by 300% compared to 5 years ago. The current housing market does not reflect the true market price; it represents what the government created only to wipe out the wealth of several social levels. 
The current value of real estate in China exceeds 40 percent of the GDP. Further, the number of vacant housing units has reached an astronomical figure. Take Beijing for example. It alone has over 3.80 million vacant housing units, and Shanghai has over 5 million units standing idle. Shenzhen and Guangzhou have even more. 
Source: Blog at sina.com, September 29, 2013 
http://dl.house.sina.com.cn/news/2013-09-29/08082435329.shtml
Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Muddled Urbanization in Ordos Results in the Loss of Billions and Helpless Ex-Farmers

On September 27, 2013, China Review News published a report on the failure of the urbanization process in Ordos, one of the twelve major subdivisions in Inner Mongolia, the People’s Republic of China. After 10 years of muddled urbanization in which the government caused overheating in the real estate market and in which almost all residents participated, Ordos, a coal mining city, is now an empty city where most of the new buildings are vacant. As a result, billions in wealth has been lost with the burst of the property bubble. Now, all local-governments as well as ordinary residents have to find ways to repay their debts.

As previous rural villages have been demolished, ex-farmers, now urban citizens, stand idle and feel helpless. They have lost all their relocation money in private financing related to real estate development. When property development was hot, these ex-farmers, without any money and no flocks of sheep, had to find jobs as construction workers. In the most recent couple of years, they could not even find any construction jobs because all construction sites have been shut down.

Source: China Review News, September 27, 2013
http://www.zhgpl.com/doc/1027/6/7/7/102767771.html?coluid=10&kindid=258&docid=102767771&mdate=0927175545

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources