China is playing down the impact of disruptions to Iranian oil exports, despite Iran supplying a significant share of China’s crude imports. People’s Daily recently published an article titled “The Energy Supply Must Remain in Our Own Hands,” arguing that China has demonstrated “remarkable resilience” despite the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies.
The first part of the article focused on Shandong Province, home to many of China’s small, privately owned “teapot” refineries. It claimed that Shandong has sufficient oil supplies for two main reasons: First, although imports from the Middle East have declined this year, Chinese companies avoid significant disruptions via strengthened energy cooperation with countries including Brazil and Canada. Second, technological advances at the Shengli Oilfield in Shandong, including improved recovery rates and expanded shale-oil production, have increased domestic oil output to 23.71 million tons in 2025, a recent high.
However, Chinascope’s research suggests that making up the Iranian crude loss could be difficult. Chinese media outlet Sina reported that Shandong’s independent refineries rely heavily on crude from the Middle East, Africa, and Russia, importing more than 100 million metric tons in 2024 {2}. Reuters estimates that China receives about 1.4 million barrels of Iranian crude per day, equivalent to roughly 70 million metric tons annually {3}. China imported about 108 million tons from Russia and 44 million tons from Brazil in 2024 {4}, while Canadian crude imports reached 15.5 million tons in 2025 {5}. It would therefore be difficult for increased imports from Brazil and Canada to quickly replace the volume of Iranian oil potentially lost because of U.S. sanctions.
The second argument—rising domestic production—also appears insufficient to offset the potential shortfall. Shengli Oilfield’s output increased from 23.45 million tons in 2023 {6} to 23.59 million tons in 2024 {7} and 23.71 million tons in 2025. The 2025 increase was only about 120,000 tons, or 0.5 percent, from the previous year. That increase is negligible compared with the potential loss of Iranian supplies. Even Shengli’s entire annual production is only about one-third of the roughly 70 million tons of Iranian crude China imports annually.
These figures suggest that Beijing’s claim of “oil resilience” may be overstated and serves more as a propaganda message.
Sources:
1. People’s Daily, August 24, 2026
https://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/pc/content/202608/24/content_30176622.html
2. Sina, December 29, 2025
https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-29/doc-inhemcnw8134191.shtml
3. Reuters, January 20, 2025
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-crude-oil-imports-top-supplier-russia-reach-new-high-2024-2025-01-20/
4. Guru Focus, March 10, 2026
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8692925/china-buys-155m-tons-of-canadian-oil-in-2025-as-shipments-jump-168?utm_source=chatgpt.com
5. Reuters, August 21, 2026
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iranian-oil-offers-chinese-buyers-fall-us-blockade-bites-sources-say-2026-08-21/6. China National Radio, January 14, 2024
https://news.cnr.cn/native/gd/20240114/t20240114_526557375.shtml
7. National Bureau of Statistics, January 17, 2025
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202501/t20250117_1958326.html