Economic commentator Sun, who specializes in economic history and political-economic trends, said in a YouTube video that China may face the most severe version of what he calls the “latecomer disadvantage” confronting many Asian economies. The concept suggests that countries can achieve rapid growth by adopting existing technologies and accelerating industrialization and urbanization, but this compressed development can also accelerate demographic aging and expose weaknesses in underlying institutions.
Sun points to Japan as an example and cites UN projections that Asia is becoming the world’s oldest region, with people aged 65 and above expected to account for one-quarter of Asia’s population by 2050. He argues that rapid urbanization and industrialization have contributed to falling birth rates and accelerated population aging across Japan, the Asian Tigers, and China.
He warns that as aging and slower growth intensify, governments may respond with increasingly aggressive stimulus measures that fail to address underlying demographic problems while creating new risks. He identifies excessive government debt, loss of confidence in the currency, and eventual financial and social instability as potential consequences, arguing that China could be the Asian economy that suffers the most.
Sun concludes that the experience of Asian economies shows that “learning from the West requires learning the whole system, not just half of it.” In his view, rapid economic development cannot be sustained without the broader legal, social, and institutional foundations that support mature Western economies.
Source: Epoch Times, August 17, 2026
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/26/8/16/n14831003.htm