Geo-Strategic Trend - 2. page

A December 9 report by Beyond Parallel, a Korea-focused website run by the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), revealed photographs of 16 Chinese installations constructed within the China–South Korea Interim Measures Zone in the Yellow Sea. Under the 2001 China–South Korea Fisheries Agreement, the overlapping exclusive economic zones in the Yellow Sea are designated as jointly managed waters. The report notes that the construction of permanent facilities in this area violates the agreement.

According to the report, China has repeatedly refused South Korea’s requests to remove the installations and has unilaterally declared no-navigation zones around them. Since 2020, South Korean vessels have attempted to monitor Chinese activities 135 times, with 27 of those attempts intercepted by Chinese coast guard ships. Analysts also note that China has deployed 13 multifunctional buoys capable of collecting oceanographic data but potentially usable for underwater surveillance, including monitoring submarine activity—underscoring their dual civilian-military purpose.

Experts argue that these deployments reflect China’s broader “gray-zone” strategy, in which ostensibly civilian facilities are used to advance military objectives and strengthen maritime control. The Yellow Sea is considered strategically vital for Chinese naval operations moving south from bases in Shandong Province and the Bohai Gulf. The report urges the United States and South Korea to consider publicizing the coordinates of the installations. Meanwhile, South Korean media have called for reciprocal measures, citing similar responses by Vietnam, and South Korea has already begun countermeasures, including deploying its own floating platform in disputed waters—officially for environmental research—to monitor Chinese activities.

Source: Epoch Times, December 14, 2025
https://hk.epochtimes.com/news/2025-12-14/16128304

Japan and the Philippines have recently accused the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and China of “dangerous military conduct,” underscoring sharply rising security tensions in the region. Japan reported that Chinese warplanes from the carrier Liaoning locked their fire-control radar on Japanese Air Self-Defense Force F‑15 fighters twice near Okinawa — an act Tokyo described as reckless and hazardous to international air safety. Meanwhile, the Philippines alleges that Chinese forces fired warning flares at one of its patrol aircraft over a disputed area of the South China Sea.

The incidents occurred just weeks after Japan’s new prime minister suggested the possibility of collective self-defense in response to a crisis in Taiwan, a stance that has already drawn a sharp reaction from Beijing. Both Tokyo and Manila have formally protested the latest actions, demanding that China take measures to prevent such behavior from recurring.

Source: VOA, December 9, 2025
https://www.voachinese.com/a/japan-and-the-philippines-accuse-china-of-dangerous-military-conduct-escalating-security-pressure-on-us-allies-20251208/8091444.html

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent comments regarding a potential “Taiwan contingency” have prompted a strong reaction from Beijing. Analysts argue that this response reflects more than diplomatic friction—it reveals China’s underlying concerns about U.S.–Japan military cooperation in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict. Japanese media, citing former Maritime Self-Defense Force officer and current military analyst “Major General Wolf,” note that these concerns rest on concrete strategic simulations rather than conjecture.

A 2023 wargame assessment by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) examined 24 potential invasion scenarios. In the simulations, China secured victory in only two, and only when the United States and Japan failed to coordinate their actions. In nearly every other case, joint U.S.–Japan involvement significantly diminished the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) chances of occupying Taiwan.

Experts distill the formula for preventing a successful takeover into three interdependent factors: Taiwan’s determination to defend itself, U.S. military intervention, and Japanese logistical and basing support. All three components, they argue, are essential. China’s sharp response to Takaichi’s remarks underscores this strategic reality—robust trilateral alignment among Taiwan, the United States, and Japan would make a PLA victory in the Taiwan Strait highly improbable.

Source: Secret China, December 3, 2025
https://www.secretchina.com/news/b5/2025/12/03/1091482.html