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Geo-Strategic Trend - 3. page

China’s Expanding Arctic Strategy: From Greenland Autonomy to the “Polar Silk Road”

In June 2009, Greenland’s Self-Government Act took effect, transferring most governing powers from Denmark to the Greenlandic government—excluding foreign affairs, defense, and monetary policy—and granting Greenland the right to declare independence at any time. Economic independence, however, remains a prerequisite. Nearly 60 percent of Greenland’s revenue still comes from an annual Danish subsidy of about 3.5 billion kroner (US$ 346,000), frozen at the time of autonomy, forcing the territory to shoulder increasing fiscal responsibility.

Against this backdrop, Beijing’s involvement in Greenland gradually emerged. Today, Greenland has the highest level of Chinese investment as a share of GDP in the Arctic region. In 2016, Chinese rare-earth firm Shenghe Resources became the largest shareholder in the Kvanefjeld mine, and in 2018 it signed a memorandum of understanding to lead the processing and sale of materials extracted from the site.

Prior to 2013, China kept a deliberately low profile in the Arctic, avoiding open discussion of polar resources. This approach shifted after Xi Jinping took power. In April 2013, China’s 12th Five-Year Plan for Marine Development highlighted research into Arctic shipping routes and the normalization of polar expeditions. In June 2014, the People’s Liberation Army’s “Strategic Assessment 2013” identified Arctic shipping and resource development as having major strategic value and described access to Arctic resources as an “important strategic interest.”

In January 2018, China released its first “Arctic Policy White Paper,” declaring itself a “near-Arctic state” and formally introducing the “Polar Silk Road,” which added a northern maritime corridor to the Belt and Road Initiative. The route encompasses the Northeast Passage, the Northwest Passage, and a future Central Arctic route. The Northeast Passage, largely controlled by Russia, reduces shipping time from Shanghai to Hamburg to about 18 days, compared with roughly 35 days via the Suez Canal, while the Northwest Passage through Canada shortens routes by about 20 percent compared with the Panama Canal.

The Polar Silk Road is widely regarded as a geopolitical strategy rather than a purely commercial project, with significant implications for the global balance of power. Analysts argue that China aims to expand its Arctic influence in coordination with Russia, potentially laying the groundwork for a parallel global system and enabling the future deployment of nuclear-powered submarines to counter the United States.

In operational terms, China COSCO began using Arctic routes in 2013 and, over the following eight years, conducted 56 voyages with 26 vessels, including 14 trips in 2021 alone. In 2015, five Chinese naval vessels transited the Bering Sea near Alaska, drawing U.S. attention. In 2017, China’s “Xuelong” icebreaker completed its first passage through the Northwest Passage.

China’s Arctic ambitions have also raised security concerns. In 2016, a Hong Kong–based company proposed purchasing a decommissioned Danish naval base, and in 2018 a Chinese state-owned enterprise bid to expand and modernize Greenland’s airports; both proposals were ultimately blocked by Copenhagen. In 2020, Chinese scholars openly argued that Greenland should serve as a strategic hub for the Polar Silk Road.

In October 2024, Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered Arctic Ocean waters for the first time, operating farther north than previously recorded and signaling an expansion into areas traditionally viewed as within the U.S. strategic sphere.

China frames its Arctic policy around four principles—“understanding, protecting, utilizing, and participating in the governance of the Arctic”—while asserting its “near-Arctic” status and seeking greater influence within Arctic institutions.

Source: Epoch Times, January 15, 2026
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/26/1/14/n14676123.htm

Polish Government Suspects Russia Responsible for AI-Generated TikTok Content Advocating Polish EU Exit, Requests EU Investigation

The Polish government has requested that the European Commission investigate TikTok after AI-generated content appeared on the platform, including messages encouraging Poland to leave the European Union—content Warsaw says is almost certainly Russian disinformation.

In recent weeks, a TikTok account featuring videos of young women dressed in Poland’s national colors advocating EU exit went viral. The account has since been removed. Poland’s Deputy Minister for Digital Affairs, Dariusz Standerski, told the European Commission that such posts pose a threat to public order, information security, and the integrity of democratic processes in both Poland and the EU. He added that the nature of the narratives, their dissemination, and the use of synthetic media indicate that TikTok failed to meet its obligations as a “Very Large Online Platform” (VLOP).

Polish officials cited Russian-language grammar in the audio as evidence of Russian involvement. TikTok said it has been in contact with Polish authorities and removed content that violated its rules. The European Commission confirmed receipt of Poland’s letter and noted that under the EU Digital Services Act (DSA), VLOPs must assess all risks associated with their services, including AI-related risks. Last year, the Commission had already initiated proceedings against TikTok for allegedly failing to prevent election interference, particularly during Romania’s presidential election in November 2024. Non-compliance with the DSA can result in fines of up to 6 percent of a platform’s global annual revenue.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), December 31, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202512310018.aspx

Xi Jinping Meets South Korean President, Makes “Four Demands and Four Promises”

Major Taiwanese news group Eastern Media International recently reported that South Korean President Lee Jae-myung just visited China for a state visit and held a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on January, 5th. Along with Taiwanese media, South Korean media reported on the “four demands and four promises” agreed during the Lee-Xi meeting.

China has put forward four demands to South Korea, including:

  • First, South Korea must publicly reiterate its adherence to China’s “One China Principle,” and South Korea must also adhere to the One China Principle in its press release when Lee Jae-myung meets with Xi Jinping;
  • Second, South Korea must promise that its military cooperation with the United States will not be used in the Indo-Pacific region;
  • Third, South Korea must promise to refuse to deploy the U.S. Typhon intermediate-range missile system;
  • Fourth, China opposes the expansion of the mission of the U.S. military stationed in South Korea.

In return, China made “three promises” and “one non-promise” to South Korea:

  • First, China promised South Korea to lift sanctions against subsidiaries of the Hanwha Group;
  • second, it promised to abolish the “ban on South Korean entertainment” and allow South Korean performers to perform in China; and
  • third, it promised to increase the number of Chinese tourists visiting South Korea, tripling the number in the first half of the year and quintupling it in the second half.
  • Regarding the “one non-promise,” while South Korea hoped to use this visit to secure a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, China did not promise “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

Source: ETToday, January 6, 2026
https://www.ettoday.net/news/20260106/3096527.htm

CNA: Over One-Tenth of 2025 New Car Sales in UK were Chinese-Made Vehicles

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that Chinese car brands made a significant impact on the UK market last year, with new car sales exceeding 200,000 units, accounting for one-tenth of the UK 2025 new car sales market.

Chinese automakers, SAIC’s MG, BYD, and Chery are leading the pack, with significant growth in UK. Thanks to strong policy support from the Chinese government in recent years, tight government control over the lithium-ion battery supply chain, and low labor costs in China relative to the West, China holds an “absolute leading position” in the global electric vehicle industry, CNA reported. The rapid sales growth of Chinese cars has worried EU countries, especially Germany and France, with the fear that a contraction in their own automotive industries could lead to the loss of millions of automotive jobs. Data from the UK Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) shows that, in the first 11 months of 2025, Chinese car brands sold 187,800 vehicles in the UK, double the sales in the same period of 2024.

Unlike the EU, the UK and Norway do not impose tariffs on Chinese imports. This means Chinese electric vehicles can be sold smoothly in these two countries. Chinese brands also accounted for one-tenth of new car sales in Spain and Norway last year.

Source: CNA, January 1, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202601010209.aspx

China, Russia, and Iran Launch “BRICS+” Joint Naval Exercises off South Africa

China, Russia, Iran, South Africa, and other BRICS member states began a week-long joint naval exercise in South African waters on January 10, 2026, under the expanded “BRICS+” framework, which includes additional member and observer countries beyond the original BRICS grouping. South African authorities said the drills are aimed at safeguarding key shipping lanes and ensuring the security of maritime economic activities. The exercise marks the first time BRICS countries have conducted this type of defense cooperation and is widely viewed as a show of unity amid shifting global strategic dynamics, particularly in relation to Western powers.

China is the lead country for the joint exercise, dubbed “Peace Will-2026.” The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has deployed the guided-missile destroyer Tangshan, the comprehensive supply ship Taihu, a ship-borne helicopter, and dozens of special operations personnel to take part in the drills.

Sources:
1. Lianhe Zaobao, January 11, 2026
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20260111-8084342
2. Radio France International, January 9, 2026
https://www.rfi.fr/cn/国际/20260109-中俄伊朗等金砖成员国在南非附近海域举行联合军演

IKEA China to Close Seven Stores Starting in February

Well-known new Chinese news site The Paper recently reported that IKEA China plans to make “strategic adjustments” to its store distributions.

On January 7, IKEA China issued a statement indicating that, after a comprehensive review and evaluation of existing customer touchpoints, IKEA China has decided to cease operations of seven physical retail stores, including the IKEA Baoshan Store in Shanghai, IKEA Panyu Store in Guangzhou, IKEA Zhongbei Store in Tianjin, IKEA Nantong Store, IKEA Xuzhou Store, IKEA Ningbo Store, and IKEA Harbin Store, effective February 2, 2026. “Local customers in these major cities can still shop through other IKEA stores in their cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Tianjin), the IKEA official website, the IKEA app, or the IKEA WeChat mini-program.”

IKEA China explained that the retail industry is undergoing an “unprecedented transformation” due to “global economic uncertainty, the wave of digitization, and profound changes in consumer behavior.” IKEA continues to evaluate and optimize its business portfolio, channel distribution, and operational structure globally to better meet customer needs. Specific measures include maximizing the efficiency of every square meter of commercial space through transformation, closure, or addition of business units.
IKEA began its sourcing operations in China in the 1960s and opened its first IKEA store in 1998. Since then, IKEA has gradually built a complete value chain in China, encompassing product development, sourcing, production, logistics, retail stores, and digital innovation.

Source: The Paper, January 7, 2026
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32333259

China Imposes Sweeping Export Controls on Dual-Use Items to Japan

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced today that it is strengthening export controls on dual-use items to Japan, effective immediately, to safeguard national security and interests. The ministry has prohibited the export of all dual-use items to Japanese military users, military purposes, and any other end-users or uses that could enhance Japan’s military capabilities. Additionally, the ban extends to any country or region from transferring relevant dual-use items to Japan.

This escalatory move by China threatens to comprehensively impact Japan’s economy and trade. China’s 2026 catalog of dual-use items and technologies subject to export authorization management lists as many as 1,005 items under export control, covering rare earth elements, chemicals, drones, telecommunications equipment, alloys, nuclear energy materials, equipment, and technologies.

The announcement, published on the Ministry of Commerce website on the afternoon of January 6, marks the ministry’s first official bulletin of 2026. According to China’s Export Control Law and related regulations, the decision aims to safeguard national security and fulfill international non-proliferation obligations.

The ministry warned that any organization or individual from any country or region that violates these regulations by transferring or providing China-origin dual-use items to Japanese entities or individuals will face legal consequences. Under China’s dual-use items export control regulations, these items refer to goods, technologies, and services with both civilian and military applications that could potentially enhance military capabilities, particularly those usable in designing, developing, producing, or utilizing weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems.

The 2026 catalog released last year by the Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs covers 846 items including chemicals capable of producing drugs and chemical weapons, processing materials, electronics, rare earths, computers, telecommunications, sensors, lasers, navigation systems, aerospace components, and microbial agents. An additional 159 items relate to nuclear materials and reactor technologies.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), January 6, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202601060265.aspx

Netflix Removes Chinese Drama in Vietnam Over South China Sea “Nine-Dash Line” Map

Netflix has removed the Chinese TV drama “Shine on Me” from its Vietnam platform after Vietnamese authorities objected to scenes featuring a map with China’s “nine-dash line,” which Vietnam says is inaccurate and infringes on its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. Vietnam’s Ministry of Culture ordered the takedown on January 3 and gave Netflix 24 hours to comply; by January 6, the series was no longer available in Vietnam.

The 27-episode romance drama had been popular in China and other markets, ranking among the top ten on Netflix in Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam before its removal.

Vietnam is one of several countries that dispute China’s South China Sea claims represented by the nine-dash line. This is not the first time Vietnam has banned content over the issue: authorities previously barred Warner Bros.’ “Barbie” in 2023 and DreamWorks’ “Abominable” in 2016 for featuring the same contested map.

Source: BBC, January 7, 2026
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/articles/ce9ynrxp001o/trad