Geo-Strategic Trend - 3. page

The Japanese government has issued a warning to Japanese companies interested in supporting Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction, cautioning them about the security risks associated with using 5G telecommunications infrastructure built on technology from Chinese tech giant Huawei. The warning reflects growing concern in Tokyo over the potential for technical and sensitive information leakage through Huawei-equipped networks.

The alert comes after a major Ukrainian mobile operator conducted 5G pilot tests with Huawei in several cities last year. The Ukrainian government subsequently allocated 5G frequency bands to that operator. Japan’s Rakuten Group had also applied to participate in Ukraine’s 5G market but was not selected as a candidate.

According to Japanese government documents obtained by Kyodo News, officials flagged serious concerns about the spread of Huawei 5G infrastructure in major cities including the capital Kyiv. The documents specifically warned that investment in critical infrastructure — including the energy sector — carried significant risks for Japan, the United States, and European nations. Officials also expressed concern that Chinese-made equipment could enter the Ukrainian market indirectly, through Turkish intermediary companies, even without direct involvement from Chinese firms.

Huawei has long been identified as a security vulnerability by U.S. authorities and remains subject to American sanctions. Japan’s decision to issue this kind of economic security warning to private firms is considered an unusual step, underscoring how seriously the government views the risk of Huawei technology proliferating in strategically important regions. The move signals that Tokyo is prepared to take a more active role in guiding Japanese corporate behavior abroad when national and allied security interests are at stake.

Source: Kyodo News, March 12, 2026
https://china.kyodonews.net/articles/-/7862

The government of Honduras has indicated it may gradually reconsider its diplomatic alignment with Taiwan following a change in national leadership. Vice President María Antonieta Mejía stated that the administration is reviewing agreements signed with China under the previous government to assess their economic and political impact. The findings are expected to inform decisions by President Nasry Asfura, who took office in January 2026 and had previously expressed openness to restoring ties with Taiwan.

Honduras severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 2023 under former president Xiomara Castro and established formal ties with China. At the time, the shift was presented as a strategic move to secure greater trade, investment, and development opportunities. However, domestic critics argue that the anticipated economic benefits from cooperation with Beijing have not materialized as expected, prompting renewed debate within Honduras about the country’s diplomatic direction.

Officials have emphasized that any potential change in diplomatic relations would proceed gradually and only after a thorough policy review. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has responded cautiously, stating that it remains open to strengthening ties with Honduras on the basis of mutual benefit and pragmatic cooperation. The situation underscores the broader geopolitical competition between China and Taiwan for diplomatic recognition, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Source: Epoch Times, February 11, 2026
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/26/2/11/n14695888.htm

Italy recently expelled eight Chinese nationals accused of monitoring and intimidating Chinese dissidents living in the country, reigniting public debate over China’s use of overseas “police stations” to extend its repression networks across multiple countries.

The eight individuals were removed on March 5, following a lengthy investigation by Italy’s DIGOS unit and Turin prosecutors. Four left voluntarily, three were immediately deported, and one woman remains detained after applying for asylum. The primary target of their surveillance was a prominent online activist known as “Teacher Li” — whose account “Teacher Li is Not Your Teacher” regularly exposes human rights abuses by the Chinese Communist Party. Li stated that he and his team had faced years of transnational harassment and intimidation, and welcomed Italy’s action as a defense of democratic principles and the rule of law.

The case also drew attention to a separate cyberattack on Italy’s Interior Ministry in February, in which hackers attempted to access information on Chinese dissidents and Italian officials investigating Chinese organizations. A prior attack between 2024 and 2025 allegedly resulted in the theft of data on approximately 5,000 Italian police officers holding sensitive positions.

The phenomenon is not limited to Italy. In France, the rights group Safeguard Defenders previously identified at least four clandestine Chinese police stations in the greater Paris area, part of a global network of over 100 such outposts spanning 53 countries. French authorities confirmed the closure of nine such stations and issued expulsion orders against at least two individuals linked to their operation.

These stations, ostensibly offering administrative assistance to overseas Chinese communities, are widely reported to be used for pressuring dissidents and coercing individuals into returning to China.

Source: Radio France International, March 10, 2026
https://rfi.my/CVxq

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that, Japan’s Foreign Ministry just released the results of a domestic opinion poll on diplomacy. Regarding the question of whether respondents believed the security environment in East Asia was becoming increasingly severe, 79.3 percent of respondents agreed.

Regarding the aspects that Japan should prioritize in its diplomacy with China, the most popular answer among respondents, at 52.9 percent, was “taking a tough stance against violations of territorial waters.” The survey results reflect the Japanese public’s vigilance regarding the activities of Chinese coast guard vessels around the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands in Chinese).

This survey was conducted by telephone from February 10 to 18, targeting 1,000 people aged 18 and over throughout Japan.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, March 8, 2026
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20260308-8698254

Major Taiwanese news network Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported that, due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, the Chinese government has ordered the country’s largest oil refinery to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline.

Officials from China’s National Development and Reform Commission met with oil refinery executives and ordered an immediate halt to refined oil exports. The companies were instructed to stop signing new contracts and negotiate with buyers to cancel shipments. Aviation kerosene and marine fuel oil stored in bonded warehouses, as well as fuel destined for Hong Kong and Macau, were exempt from this restriction.

China has a massive oil refining industry, with most of its production used to meet domestic demand, thus it is not a key source of supply for the Asian market. However, as the Middle East crisis intensifies, Beijing’s preventative restrictive measures reflect the efforts of the entire import-dependent region to prioritize domestic needs. Nearly half of China’s oil imports come from the Gulf region, including almost all of Iran’s oil shipments.

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), Sinochem Group, and Zhejiang Petrochemical Corporation regularly receive fuel export quotas from the Chinese government. None of these five companies responded to the aforementioned news.

Source: LTN, March 5, 2026
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/5360359

Radio France Internationale (RFI) recently summarized, in Chinese, a commentary by Le Monde, the most widely read paid national daily newspaper in France. The commentary said that China, a supporter of the Iranian regime and the largest buyer of Iranian oil, expressed anger following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. However, China once again gives the impression of “acting too little and reacting too late”.

Despite Western sanctions against Iran, China continues to support the Iranian economy by purchasing oil. China also provides Iran with technical support in population surveillance and internet control. China has provided ongoing diplomatic support to Tehran, pushing for its accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS. The Chinese military regularly conducts joint military exercises with Iran and Russia as well.

However, when Iran encounters national security problems, they cannot truly rely on China as a “backer.” China does not see itself as obligated to intervene. China is once again giving the impression of “acting too little and reacting too late,” just as it did in June 2025.

In the meantime, Tehran has not fully heeded Beijing’s advice. China has criticized Tehran’s inefficiency in developing its economy and creating a favorable business environment, and has long criticized Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. In a sense, Iran is also a burden on China.

Source: RFI, March 3, 2026
https://tinyurl.com/56pmedzc

Africa emerged as the top destination for Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investment in 2025, marking what analysts describe as the most active year for the initiative since its launch in 2013. According to a joint report released on January 18 by Griffith University’s Asia Institute and Fudan University’s Green Finance and Development Center, China’s total investment and construction contracts in Africa surged to $61.2 billion in 2025, a staggering 283 percent year-on-year increase, pushing Africa ahead of the Middle East as the initiative’s largest recipient region.

The report attributes the growth primarily to large-scale infrastructure projects financed through Chinese policy banks, including the Export-Import Bank and the China Development Bank. Unlike earlier BRI investments focused narrowly on roads and bridges, 2025’s projects are more deeply integrated with industrial parks and local resource development, aligning with African nations’ demands for domestic value chain upgrades.

The year was described as both the “dirtiest and greenest” for Chinese energy engagement in Africa. Fossil fuels remained central, with a $23 billion (approximately $23 billion USD) investment agreement in the Republic of Congo aimed at boosting oil output, and a $20 billion (approximately $20 billion USD) natural gas industrial park deal in Nigeria. At the same time, investment in copper, cobalt, and other critical minerals reached a record $32.6 billion, while green energy projects, including solar, wind, and a major green hydrogen initiative in Nigeria led by LONGi Green Energy, saw significantly increased activity.

Africa is also serving as a strategic manufacturing hub for Chinese firms seeking to sidestep U.S. tariffs. Morocco, benefiting from a U.S. free trade agreement and facing only a 10 percent U.S. tariff rate, has attracted a wave of Chinese factory relocations, including Bowey Alloys’ $150 million special alloy materials plant and Hangzhou Radix Energy’s $30 million automotive bearing facility in Tangier.

From 2013 through end-2025, cumulative BRI construction contracts totaled $837 billion and non-financial investment reached $561 billion, bringing total engagement to $1.399 trillion. The report anticipates continued expansion in 2026, focused on energy, mining, and emerging technologies.

Source: Radio France International, February 27, 2026
https://rfi.my/CTr1