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Geo-Strategic Trend - 3. page

Panama’s Supreme Court Rules Ports Contract Unconstitutional, Beijing Responds

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that Panama’s Supreme Court has ruled unconstitutional the operation of two Panamanian ports by CK Hutchison Holdings, a Hong Kong-based international conglomerate company operating some 43 overseas ports. CK Hutchison’s share price plummeted following the ruling.

Following US President Trump’s earlier claims this year that the Panama Canal was under Chinese control and his vow to reclaim it, ports Panama Canal are at the center of geopolitical competition. CK Hutchison Holdings later announced it would sell its 43 overseas port operations, including the two Panama Canal ports, to an international consortium comprised of U.S. asset management giant BlackRock and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), owned by the Aponte family of Italian billionaires, for US$22.8 billion. This deal sparked discontent in Beijing, and Chinese regulators subsequently launched an investigation. CK Hutchison later announced its intention to invite Chinese state-owned shipping giant China COSCO Shipping to join the consortium.

With respect to the rulings by the Panamanian Supreme Court, CK Hutchison has limited options: it can file a motion for clarification of the Supreme Court’s decision, but cannot appeal. The company may also seek international arbitration. The Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized these Panama Supreme Court rulings as contrary to the laws governing Panama’s approval of the relevant franchise rights, stating that Beijing will “take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.”

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, January 30, 2026
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20260130-8232674

Xinhua: Europe Seeks to Showcase Independent Capabilities in NATO Exercises

NATO has launched two major military exercises in Europe—”Operation Arctic Endurance 2026” in the Arctic and “Steadfast Dart 2026” in Central and Western Europe—but their scale, organization, and strategic messaging differ markedly from past routine drills. Rather than serving solely as tests of defensive readiness, these exercises appear shaped by the broader geopolitical environment, particularly growing U.S.–European strategic divergences and shifting priorities within the alliance.

For the first time, the Arctic-focused exercise, initiated by Denmark in Greenland, and the large-scale Steadfast Dart maneuver, led by Germany with participation from around 11 allied nations, reflect a stronger European leadership role and a reduced U.S. presence. According to the article, this signals Europe’s effort to demonstrate its capacity to manage regional security independently, marking a notable departure from NATO’s traditionally U.S.-dominated command structure.

However, Xinhua underscores significant underlying problems. Both exercises were reportedly organized in haste, marked by last-minute planning, equipment incompatibilities, and lower-than-expected participation from some members. Defense experts cited in the article characterize the drills as more symbolic than operationally substantive. These shortcomings, combined with divergent strategic objectives among European allies and constrained resources, point to deeper strains in NATO’s cohesion, interoperability, and overall ability to respond effectively to a major crisis.

Source: Xinhua, January 30, 2029
https://www.news.cn/milpro/20260130/f8323e59166a4dffb6500a11244b1ae5/c.html

Beijing Rehearses “Maritime Militia” Strategy Against Taiwan

China has increasingly employed fishing vessels as part of its so-called “maritime militia” strategy, using civilian boats to assert control at sea while creating legal and moral dilemmas for its opponents. In January 2026, Beijing assembled roughly 1,400 Chinese fishing vessels into a floating maritime barrier stretching about 320 kilometers—widely interpreted as a rehearsal for a potential blockade of Taiwan. Similar operations in the past have reportedly involved more than 2,000 vessels arranged in formations exceeding 400 kilometers in length.

Independent media commentator Wen Zhao outlined three tactics of this maritime militia strategy.

Version 1.0:
Chinese fishing boats deliberately crossed other countries’ maritime “red lines,” provoking responses from foreign maritime law-enforcement agencies. When vessels were detained or crews arrested, China’s coast guard intervened under the pretext of defending fishermen’s rights, leading to standoffs, ramming incidents, and water-cannon exchanges. In some cases, naval forces were drawn in, creating a three-layered escalation model—fishing boats, coast guard, then navy. This approach has been used since 2012 in areas such as Scarborough Shoal against the Philippines and tends to be effective against countries with weaker maritime enforcement capabilities.

Version 2.0:
Against stronger maritime enforcers such as Japan, Chinese fishing vessels shifted from symbolic legal presence to active provocation. These boats deliberately cut across or collide with foreign coast guard patrol vessels, especially when Chinese maritime law-enforcement ships are nearby. According to Japanese police, the fishing boats often make sudden turns to block enforcement vessels, and if collisions occur, Chinese operators film and selectively edit footage to support its propaganda narratives against the foreign “bully.”

Version 3.0:
This method involves massing large numbers of fishing vessels into coordinated formations to support a blockade of Taiwan or to obstruct U.S. and Japanese military intervention. These slow-moving, densely packed formations exploit a legal gray zone, as military forces cannot lawfully attack civilian vessels. U.S. think tanks, including the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), have analyzed such scenarios and suggested countermeasures such as declaring military zone to prevent vessels from coming in, waiting for them to weaken due to fuel constraints, disrupting inter-vessel communications through electronic warfare, transiting the area before formations fully coalesce, or taking a detour route to bypass the formations.

Source: Gan Jing World, January 19, 2026
https://www.ganjingworld.com/video/1i8p0lkkjje6G3cHANsOJdBWk1n51c?playlist_id=1galt8gs0ti1LGq7DHJ5BZQ1q00p

The Paper: Europe Begins Discussions on Developing Its Own Nuclear Weapons

Well-known new Chinese news site The Paper recently reported that, amidst escalating tensions between Europe and the United States, calls for nuclear autonomy are growing louder within Europe. Senior European officials have stated that European countries are questioning the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. European leaders are discussing whether they should rely more on nuclear-armed France and the United Kingdom than the United States, and even whether they should develop their own nuclear weapons.

European leaders’ discussions on how to defend against a nuclear-armed Russia without U.S. involvement were “both intense and productive,” with options including enhancing France’s nuclear capabilities, and redeploying French nuclear-capable bombers outside of France. Officials also indicated that proposals to provide non-nuclear-weapon European countries with relevant technological capabilities were under consideration as well.

These discussions could overturn decades of global efforts to reduce, rather than exacerbate, nuclear proliferation. There is currently a clear lack of mutual trust between Europe and the United States.

However, some commentators have expressed doubts about the prospects of European “nuclear autonomy.” They point out that France and the UK possess approximately 290 and 225 nuclear warheads respectively, which, even combined, cannot compare to the scale of the U.S. and Russia. Furthermore, the lack of maintenance and upgrades over decades makes it difficult to form an alternative to the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Furthermore, France and the UK will hold presidential and parliamentary elections in 2027 and 2029 respectively. If far-right forces in both countries come to power after the elections, the current government’s commitment to “nuclear independence” risks revocation.

Source: The Paper, January 23, 2026
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32448420

Thousands of Foreign Workers Flee Scam Villages in Cambodia, Seek to Return Home

Thousands of foreign laborers from China, Indonesia, and several African countries have flooded into Phnom Penh after escaping scam villages—fraud compounds located near Cambodia’s borders—in hopes of returning to their home countries. Anti-human-trafficking organizations warn that many of those who fled are victims of forced labor and scam-related exploitation and remain in precarious and unsafe conditions. Growing international pressure has pushed the Cambodian government to intensify its crackdown on criminal networks behind the scam operations, arresting several foreign ringleaders. These actions reportedly triggered a mass exodus, with workers breaching compound security to reach the capital.

In Phnom Penh, hundreds of Chinese nationals—many without passports—are reportedly sleeping outdoors near the Chinese embassy, desperate to return home but unable to do so. Similar scenes have emerged at the Indonesian embassy and in nearby public parks, where Indonesian citizens are seeking assistance; embassy officials processed roughly 1,440 cases within a five-day period. Escapees have described harsh and abusive conditions inside the scam compounds and said they undertook dangerous journeys to reach the city. Cambodian authorities say they are determined to dismantle online scam operations and restore the country’s international image, while new regulations target landlords who shelter foreigners with criminal backgrounds. The government has also appealed for foreign assistance to provide temporary housing for those unable to leave Cambodia.

Source: Epoch Times, January 24, 2026
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/26/1/23/n14682626.htm

CNA: U.S. AI Supply Chain Alliance Adds New Member

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) just signed documents to join a U.S.-led alliance named Pax Silica for supply chain cooperation in artificial intelligence (AI) and key minerals.

Washington launched this economic security initiative last year in an effort to counter China’s growing influence in advanced technology. Pax Silica currently has nine member states: South Korea, the United States, Australia, Israel, Japan, Qatar, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates. The U.S. State Department said that India plans to join as a signatory next month.

Pax Silica members will jointly establish multi-layered partnerships to strengthen supply chain security, address coercive dependencies and single points of failure, and promote the adoption of trustworthy technology ecosystems. The member states will collaborate on flagship projects across all levels of global technology stacks, including connectivity and edge infrastructure such as 6G, computing and data centers, advanced manufacturing, logistics, mineral refining and processing, and energy.

Last December, representatives from the U.S., Japan, Israel, Australia, Singapore, and South Korea jointly signed the “Silicon Peace Declaration” and held the first Pax Silica Summit. Taiwan, the European Union, Canada, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also participated as guests.

Source: CNA, January 15, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/ait/202601150136.aspx

Czech Authorities Arrest Alleged Chinese Intelligence Operative Linked to Plot Against Taiwan Vice President

In March 2024, during a visit by Taiwan Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim to the Czech Republic, Czech Military Intelligence (VZ) revealed that Chinese intelligence services closely monitored her movements and even considered orchestrating a “demonstrative” car crash as a form of intimidation.

Following an extended investigation, Czech authorities arrested a key individual accused of long-term cooperation with Chinese intelligence services on January 18, 2026. According to the Czech outlet Deník N, the suspect is Yang Yiming, a Prague-based correspondent for China’s state-run Guangming Daily. Yang had worked in the Czech Republic for many years and had repeatedly received extensions to his work permit from the Czech government.

Investigators allege that Yang exploited his status as a journalist to move freely within Czech and Slovak political circles, collecting intelligence under the guise of media interviews—particularly information related to political interactions involving Taiwan. Reports further claim that he used so-called “technical cooperation” with local media to disseminate pro-China narratives domestically, while covertly serving China’s military intelligence apparatus.

The arrest is being described as a milestone in Czech counterintelligence history. In 2025, the Czech Republic amended its criminal code to designate “unauthorized activities on behalf of a foreign power” as a serious criminal offense. Yang is the first suspect charged under this revised law. If convicted, he faces up to five years in prison, with potential sentences of up to 15 years if the offense is deemed to have occurred during wartime.

Source: CReaders.net, January 23, 2026
https://news.creaders.net/world/2026/01/23/2963267.html

CNA: Taiwanese Exports to U.S. Exceed Exports to China for First Time in 26 Years

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that Taiwan’s exports to the United States reached US$198.27 billion in 2025, exceeding the approximately US$170.68 billion in exports to China and Hong Kong for the first time in 26 years.

According to statistics from the Taiwanese Ministry of Finance, Taiwan’s exports to its five major markets in 2025 all increased simultaneously. Exports to the United States reached US$198.27 billion, setting a new historical record. In the meantime, the proportion of exports to the United States increased to 30.9 percent, higher than the 26.6 percent for exports to China and Hong Kong combined.

The newly released data was based on Taiwan’s latest customs import and export trade statistics. Last year, Taiwan’s exports reached US$640.75 billion and imports reached US$483.61 billion, both setting new historical records. The year-over-year growth rates were 34.9 percent and 22.6 percent respectively. And the trade surplus of US$157.14 billion also set a new record.

Overall, the main export categories are information/communication and audio-visual products, as well as electronic components. Furthermore, exports of information/communication and audio-visual products increased by 89.5 percent year-over-year, and exports to the United States increased by 78 percent year-over-year, both setting unprecedented growth records.

The shift in Taiwan’s foreign trade landscape is related to global supply chain restructuring. It’s worth noting that, as ASEAN gradually becomes a new core of the global supply chain, its share of Taiwan’s total exports has risen to 18.6 percent, the highest in nearly 11 years.

Source: CNA, January 9, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202601090257.aspx