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Geo-Strategic Trend - 19. page

Lianhe Zaobao: U.S. Reportedly Weighs Possible Trump–Kim Summit

Singapore’s leading Chinese-language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao reported that, according to sources familiar with the matter, U.S. officials are privately discussing the possibility of a meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during Trump’s upcoming visit to Asia. The discussions remain preliminary, with no formal contact yet established with Pyongyang. Earlier this year, North Korea reportedly rejected Trump’s outreach efforts.

After meeting South Korean President Lee Jae-myung at the White House in August, Trump expressed interest in meeting Kim once again. North Korean state media later reported that Kim Jong Un had also voiced willingness to meet Trump during a recent address to the North Korean Supreme People’s Assembly. In that speech, Kim said, “I personally still have a good impression of President Trump… If the United States abandons its empty obsession with denuclearization and is willing to coexist peacefully with North Korea based on a realistic understanding, we have no reason to refuse dialogue.”

However, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification stated that there has been no communication between the two Koreas regarding a potential U.S.–North Korea summit. Meanwhile, the White House declined to comment on the report.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, October 18, 2025
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20251018-7685070?ref=global-top-news-7

People’s Daily: Jamaican Scholar: China’s Global Governance Initiative Brings Opportunities for Small Island Developing States

People’s Daily published an article by the dean of Jamaica’s Mico University College School of Education highlighting the significance of Xi Jinping’s Global Governance Initiative (GGI), particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) and other developing nations such as Jamaica. The initiative – emphasizing sovereign equality, adherence to international law, multilateralism, people-centered development, and practical cooperation – was reaffirmed at the recent “SCO+” meeting in Tianjin, where participants agreed that strengthening global governance has become an urgent priority amid growing global instability.

The author argues that China’s proposal directly addresses systemic inequalities faced by small nations in global affairs, from climate financing and debt restructuring to trade negotiations, where their interests are often sidelined. By advocating greater representation and participation of developing countries, China’s GGI aligns with the long-standing aspirations of Caribbean and Pacific island nations to play a more substantive role in international decision-making.

Despite geographical distance, China’s approach – rejecting hegemony, upholding multilateralism, and fostering Global South solidarity – is viewed as both a moral and strategic pathway for small island states seeking sustainable development, equitable participation, and resilience in an increasingly complex world.

Source: People’s Daily, October 5, 2025
https://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/pc/content/202510/05/content_30108082.html

Kazakhstan Grants China Priority Status for Second Nuclear Power Plant

Kazakhstan has announced plans to build a second nuclear power plant in the Almaty region, naming China as the preferred contractor. Almasadam Satkaliyev, head of Kazakhstan’s Atomic Energy Agency, disclosed the decision during a parliamentary briefing earlier this month, noting that the southern site was chosen to ease regional power shortages and ensure a stable electricity supply.

The country’s first nuclear power plant, already under construction in the Almaty region’s Ulken village, was awarded to Russia’s state-owned Rosatom. That project involves two VVER-1200 reactors, with an estimated investment of $14–15 billion and a construction timeline of about eleven years.

For the second plant, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) currently holds the leading position among bidders. While no final decision has been made, Satkaliyev said CNNC’s proposal is considered the most favorable. The Chinese firm is offering its Hualong One reactor — an advanced third-generation design with a projected lifespan of 60 years and an efficiency rate exceeding 90 percent.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has repeatedly identified energy security as a strategic priority, emphasizing the importance of partnerships with major international players to strengthen Kazakhstan’s energy resilience. The International Atomic Energy Agency has also approved the construction of another plant near Kurchatov in the Abai region of eastern Kazakhstan.

As the world’s largest uranium producer — holding roughly 12 percent of global reserves — Kazakhstan has not operated any nuclear power facilities since the closure of the Semipalatinsk test site in the 1990s. However, mounting energy demand and widening gaps between production and consumption have led authorities to view nuclear power as essential to reducing dependence on Russian electricity imports and fossil fuels, which still account for about half of the country’s energy mix.

China’s apparent advantage may disappoint European competitors, who were previously sidelined in similar bids. France’s EDF, the sole European finalist for the first plant, ultimately lost despite diplomatic efforts. Kazakhstan’s atomic agency noted that only Russia and China currently offer end-to-end nuclear services — from financing and construction to personnel training and spent-fuel management — underscoring the difficulties European firms face competing in this strategically significant sector.

Source: Radio France International, October 9, 2025
https://rfi.my/C536

Lianhe Zaobao: BMW Lowers Full-Year Earnings Forecast as China Sales Continue to Slump

Singapore’s leading Chinese-language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that German automaker BMW AG has cut its full-year earnings forecast amid continued weakness in the Chinese market, higher subsidies for local dealers, and rising tariff-related costs.

BMW now expects its group pre-tax profit to decline slightly this year compared with 2024, having previously projected it would remain unchanged. The automaker also revised its automotive segment’s operating profit margin to between 5 percent and 6 percent. In addition, BMW lowered its free cash flow forecast for the year to about €2.5 billion, down from an earlier projection of up to €5 billion. The company attributed the revision primarily to increased payments to dealers, particularly in China.

German luxury carmakers such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW are facing mounting headwinds in China. Mercedes-Benz’s deliveries in the country plunged 27 percent in the third quarter, while its retail sales in July dropped more than 40 percent month-on-month — marking the first time in nearly five years that its monthly sales fell below 27,000 vehicles.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, October 8, 2025
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20251008-7632427

China Denies Its New Rare Earth Export Controls Target Pakistan

China announced new rare earth export restrictions on October 9, requiring foreign manufacturers to obtain Chinese export licenses if their products contain or are made with Chinese-origin rare earth materials or technologies – even if no Chinese companies are directly involved. Under the new rules, any foreign-made items that include Chinese-produced rare earths making up 0.1% or more of their value, or that use Chinese rare earth–related technologies in extraction, smelting, or recycling, must secure a dual-use export permit from China’s Ministry of Commerce.

At an October 13 press conference, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian dismissed reports claiming that the new rules were aimed at Pakistan for allegedly using Chinese technology and equipment to export rare earths to the U.S. Lin emphasized that China and Pakistan are “all-weather strategic cooperative partners” with strong mutual trust and close coordination on key issues. He noted that Pakistan had assured China its cooperation with the U.S. would not harm Chinese interests. He said that the “rare earth samples” presented to the U.S. were actually gemstone samples purchased by Pakistani staff. Lin said the related media reports were unfounded, speculative, and intended to sow discord between the two countries.

Sources:
1. Center for Security and Emerging Technology, Georgetown University, October 9, 2025
https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/mofcom-notice-2025-61/
2. People’s Daily, October 13, 2025
https://world.people.com.cn/n1/2025/1013/c1002-40581251.html

Chinese Scholars Question Takaichi’s Ability to Sustain Long-Term Leadership

Sanae Takaichi’s election as president of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 2 has positioned her to become Japan’s next prime minister. However, Chinese academics have voiced skepticism about her political durability, predicting that her tenure may be short-lived – possibly even shorter than current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s one-year term.

Sha Qingqing, a historian, noted that despite Takaichi’s long political career, she has never held major leadership roles within the LDP – such as secretary-general – or key cabinet positions like finance, foreign affairs, or defense minister. Her previous posts, including Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications and special minister on economic security, have kept her at the periphery of Japan’s core policymaking. Sha added that the ruling coalition’s lack of a parliamentary majority will test Takaichi’s political skill, expressing doubt that her administration could survive a full year.

Lian Degui of Shanghai International Studies University argued that Takaichi’s ability to maintain stable ties with China will directly affect her political survival.

Da Zhigang of the Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences warned that unless she softens her hardline conservative stance – particularly on historical and foreign policy issues. He warned that maintaining stable relations on issues involving China’s core interests would be crucial to avoiding the fate of another short-lived cabinet.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 6, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202510060156.aspx

NHK Chinese: Ukraine Says Russian Forces Used Chinese Satellite Data in Attacks

Japan’s public broadcaster NHK reported in its Chinese-language edition that, between October 4 and the morning of October 5, Russian forces launched 53 missiles and about 500 drones – primarily targeting Ukraine’s western Lviv Oblast.

According to Ukrainian military media, at least three Chinese reconnaissance satellites passed over the region nine times during the attacks. A Ukrainian intelligence official told state media that evidence suggests close coordination between Russia and China in satellite reconnaissance to identify targets within Ukraine. Some experts believe that data from Chinese satellites may have been used to guide Russian strikes.

Beijing maintains that these satellites are intended for scientific research, but many observers suspect they also serve military purposes.

Source: NHK Chinese, October 7, 2025
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/zh/news/20251007_07/