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Chinese Economists: Export Decline and Catastrophic Impact of U.S.-China Trade War

Following the start of the current U.S.-China tariff war, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been silencing negative comments. Radio Free Asia (RFA) recently ran an article featuring two Chinese economists voicing their concerns about the impact of the tariff war on the Chinese economy.

The first economist is Xiang Songzuo, former professor at Renmin University of China, who was blacklisted in 2019 for questioning the accuracy of China’s GDP growth figures. In his speech, Xiang stated that China’s export-oriented economic activity is primarily concentrated in four Chinese provinces: Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong.

“How long will this pain last – six months, a year, or even longer?” he asked, noting that China’s rapid economic development has long relied heavily on exports, which in turn reflects a lack of domestic demand.

“Some overcapacity traditional manufacturing industries are facing extremely serious challenges, particularly the automobile-related sector. Even the most optimistic estimates expect China’s exports to decline by 10 percent to 15 percent this year.”

In addition to the auto industry, Xiang listed electromechanical products, clothing and footwear, and small home appliances – all major export categories to the U.S. – as industries that will be severely impacted and may face historic transformations. “The severity of the problem is beyond imagination. These industries were already overproducing. If exports decline further and turn to the domestic market, it will trigger a price war. This is a life-or-death challenge.”

“This is truly a disruptive global change,” Xiang warned. “Very soon, I believe a large number of export enterprises will face catastrophic challenges – and I use the word catastrophic deliberately.”

Another Chinese economist, Zhou Qiren, a professor at Peking University’s National School of Development, said that China is now like a “sandwich” being squeezed: advanced countries are exerting pressure from the top with technological and capital advantages, and emerging markets, such as India, Vietnam, and Eastern European nations, are exerting pressure from the bottom with low-cost competition.

Source: Radio Free Asia, April 18, 2025
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/shangye/jingji/2025/04/18/china-us-xiangsongzuo-zhouqiren/

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Beijing Accuses US National Security Agency of Cyber Attack on 2025 Harbin Asian Winter Games

Chinese authorities have reported that the 2025 Harbin Asian Winter Games suffered significant foreign cyber attacks, triggering an investigation by Harbin’s Public Security Bureau. With support from international partners, investigators claim to have traced these attacks to three NSA agents and two American universities.

According to Chinese technical experts, the cyber attacks specifically targeted crucial information systems including registration, arrival/departure management, and competition registration systems. These systems contained sensitive personal information of athletes and event personnel. The attacks allegedly intensified on February 3rd during the first ice hockey match, with attempts to disrupt event information publishing systems.

Chinese authorities have named three NSA operatives allegedly involved in the attacks: Katheryn A. Wilson, Robert J. Snelling, Stephen W. Johnson.

Investigators claim these individuals have previously carried out cyber attacks against Chinese critical infrastructure and companies like Huawei.

The report also implicates the University of California and Virginia Tech University in the cyber operations. It notes that both institutions have established connections to the NSA, with Virginia Tech being one of six advanced military academies in the US and a certified “Cyber Defense Research Center” and “Cyber Operations Research Center.”

Harbin police have announced a reward for information leading to the three named suspects, as part of efforts to combat foreign cyber attacks against Chinese networks and protect national cybersecurity interests.

The attacks reportedly targeted specific systems and infrastructure using hundreds of known and unknown attack methods, including zero-day vulnerabilities, file-reading exploits, and high-frequency targeted detection attacks.

Source: People’s Daily, April 16, 2025
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/pc/content/202504/16/content_30068084.html

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NIH Bans China from Accessing Gene and Disease Databases

Hong Kong financial news site AAStocks recently reported that the official website of the Director of the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) has “adopted measures to enhance the security of NIH controlled-access data,” and has prohibited institutions in China (including Hong Kong and Macau), Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela from accessing NIH controlled data storage starting April 4th. This news resulted in a significant decline in stocks prices for Chinese pharmaceutical companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The newly-restricted data include the human genotype-phenotype database platform dbGaP as well as the cloud research platform AnVIL, which is used for large-scale gene data analysis. These platforms host the world’s richest human genome and phenotypic information and disease research data, AAStocks reported. “Global researchers have been highly dependent on these databases for a long time.” These measures are in line with the provisions of the U.S. Department of Justice’s Executive Order No. 14117 and 28 CFR Part 202 “Preventing access to sensitive personal data and government-related data from the U.S.”


Source: AAStocks, April 6, 2025
https://www.aastocks.com/sc/stocks/analysis/stock-aafn-con/02269/AAFN/NOW.1431900/hk-stock-news

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Hong Kong Officials Criticize US Over Tariffs

Chinese officials responsible for Hong Kong affairs delivered strong statements against the United States during an event commemorating China’s annual “National Security Education Day.” The remarks focused on national security issues and US tariffs on Hong Kong.

Xia Baolong, Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, speaking via video, claimed the US is “targeting China’s survival rather than merely imposing taxes.” “The US doesn’t want our ‘taxes,’ it wants our ‘lives,'” Xia stated. He added that “whoever attempts to return us to poverty and weakness is our enemy.”

Xia accused the US of using extreme measures against Hong Kong, citing the “2025 Hong Kong Policy Act Report” and recent sanctions against six Beijing and Hong Kong government officials. He particularly criticized the 145% cumulative tariffs imposed on Hong Kong, which traditionally has been a free port.

“Let those American ‘country bumpkins’ wail before China’s 5,000-year civilization!” Xia declared, warning that US suppression of Hong Kong would only accelerate the demise of its “proxies” in the city.

The Beijing official claimed that while Hong Kong appears calm on the surface, undercurrents remain turbulent with “anti-China forces” either hiding within society or operating from overseas.

Dong Jingwei, Director of the Office for Safeguarding National Security in Hong Kong, who was recently sanctioned by the US, also spoke at the event. He criticized American politicians as “arrogant” and “self-righteous” for politicizing economic issues and imposing sanctions.

“China is not the China of the past, and Hong Kong is not the Hong Kong of the past,” Dong warned. “Those who threaten our security will face retaliation.”

Unlike last year’s speech, which focused solely on Hong Kong’s security matters, this year’s remarks included direct and forceful criticism of the United States.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 15, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202504150142.aspx

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Goldman Sachs Lowers China GDP Growth Forecast

The Hong Kong edition of financial news site Investing.com recently reported that Goldman Sachs has downgraded China’s economic growth forecast to reflect ongoing trade tensions with the United States. Following U.S. President Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on goods imported from China to 145 percent, Goldman Sachs now expects China’s actual GDP to grow 4.0 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026, down from the previous forecasts of 4.5 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the increasing effective U.S. tariffs beginning under President Trump’s first term may have reduced China’s actual GDP growth levels by as much as a cumulative 2.6 percentage points, including a 2.2 percentage point blow to China’s 2025 GDP growth numbers. The investment bank also expects that the Chinese authorities will respond to mounting economic pressure by introducing more stimulus policies. The bank adjusted its forecast for “expansion of the Chinese financial deficit” to 14.5 percent of GDP, up from 10.4 percent in 2024.

Goldman Sachs expressed the belief that even major easing policies by the Chinese government would likely not completely offset the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the Chinese economy. The investment bank stressed that some 10 to 20 million Chinese workers may be impacted by reduced exports to the U.S., triggering higher pressure in the Chinese employment market.

Source: Investing.com, April 10, 2025
https://hk.investing.com/news/economy-news/article-882499

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Trump’s Tariff War: Chinese Expert Suggests Building “International United Front”

American President Donald Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy on April 2nd, imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese goods effective as of the 9th. In response, China’s State Council unveiled countermeasures on the 4th, adding a 34% tariff on U.S. imports effective starting on the 10th.

According to an article by Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist at Yuekai Securities based in Guangdong province, China should adopt three principles to counter Trump’s tariff war: “seeking unity through struggle,” “building an international united front,” and “strengthening China’s own capabilities.”

Luo suggests that “while China should strongly counter U.S. unilateral protectionist policies, it must also maintain dialogue mechanisms and seek cooperation opportunities.” He advocates for “uniting all possible allies, accelerating the formation of a non-dollar world alliance, and strengthening regional cooperation.”

The economist offered five specific recommendations:

1, Implement more precise and powerful countermeasures while preserving communication channels to reach interim agreements.

2, Build international communities of shared interests by strengthening cooperation with Europe, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa, reducing tariffs for these countries to create a non-dollar free trade system.

3, Actively expand domestic demand through additional fiscal budgets, interest rate cuts, and establishing a “Central Real Estate Stabilization Fund,” with the long-term goal of making China the world’s largest consumer market.

4, Provide relief to export-related industries and stabilize the job market.

5, Deepen reform momentum to increase potential economic growth.

Luo stated that Trump’s tariffs “aren’t based on economic rationality but rather on political electoral logic and personal power pursuits,” cautioning about the unpredictability of such an approach. He emphasized that “the long-term and severe nature of the tariff war is inevitable.”

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 8, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202504080237.aspx

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Xinhua: China Holds CCP Central Peripheral Work Conference, Emphasizes Regional Cooperation

Below are excerpts from an article by Xinhua News Agency, the official state news agency of the People’s Republic of China, covering the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) Central Peripheral Work Conference held in Beijing on April 8-9.

The CCP held its first Peripheral Diplomacy Work Symposium in 2013. Since then, China has been collaborating with 17 neighboring countries, forming two major clusters in the Indochina Peninsula (ASEAN) and Central Asia.

China’s relations with its neighbors are currently at their best in modern history. Now, China has entered a critical phase where regional dynamics and global changes are deeply interconnected. We should have a global perspective in handling peripheral affairs and a stronger sense of responsibility and mission.

Recently, the United States has indiscriminately imposed tariffs on all its trading partners, including China, severely violating their legitimate rights, breaching World Trade Organization rules, and undermining the stability of the multilateral trade system and global economic order. This has sparked strong opposition from the international community, including China’s neighboring countries.

China reaffirms its commitment to standing on the right side of history and human civilization’s progress. Alongside neighboring nations, it firmly opposes the notion that “might makes right” and is dedicated to upholding international fairness, justice, and the legitimate rights of all countries.

Source: Xinhua, April 10, 2025
http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/20250410/12e4120f5de24c20b18fd28c7e583647/c.html

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CCTV: China Working With Many Countries to Counter Abusive U.S. Tariffs

The Chinese Commuist Party’s mouthpiece China Central Television (CCTV) published an article under its YuYuanTanTian (玉渊谭天) account on various social media platforms. The following is an excerpt from the article:

In recent days, Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao has been actively engaging in intensive communications with various counterparts:

  • April 8: Held a video meeting with Maroš Šefčovič, European Commission’s Executive Vice President for Trade and Economic Security
  • April 9: Video call with Tengku Zafrul, Minister of Investment, Trade, and Industry of Malaysia, current ASEAN chair
  • April 10: Video call with Ebrahim Patel, Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition of South Africa, current G20 chair
  • April 10: Video call with Majid Al-Qasabi, Minister of Commerce of Saudi Arabia
  • April 11: Video call with Geraldo Alckmin, Vice President of Brazil and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, current BRICS chair
  • April 11: Video call with Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization

According to sources close to the matter, a central topic in all of these conversations has been how to respond to the U.S.’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs. China plans to continue strengthening communication and cooperation with more countries on this issue.

The author has noted that U.S. tariff policies have drawn widespread opposition. China is actively rallying support to uphold fairness and justice in global trade. China’s strategy is to unite with all possible allies, including, but not limited to EU, where China is the EU’s largest importer and the EU is China’s second-largest trading partner; and ASEAN, where China and ASEAN have been each other’s top trading partners for five consecutive years.

China’s stance is clear: Other countries are free to retaliate against or negotiate with the U.S. – that is their sovereign decision. But if anyone uses China’s interests as a bargaining chip to curry favor with the U.S., China will never tolerate it.

Source: CCTV, April 14, 2025
https://news.cctv.com/2025/04/14/ARTI88rHGnrBwbnVIDZMwDFC250414.shtml

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