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Four Uncertainties in China’s Economy

According to a commentary in Beijing Times, China should be on guard for four uncertainties in its economy. The first uncertainty is whether China can continue to rely on the investment model of the high speed rail. “Presently the Ministry of Railways is under tremendous pressure due to high debts and low passenger usage. In the event that (this type of) investment is significantly scaled back and this engine is lost, can China maintain a high growth economy?” The second uncertainty comes from mid-size to small businesses which are the life blood of China’s economy. The third uncertainty is whether inflation control is effective. It is anticipated that the inflation rate will be as high as 6.7% for July. The fourth uncertainty is the large reduction in the GDP growth rates for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities, which may be a sign of a slowdown of China’s GDP.

Source: BeijingTimes, August 9, 2011
http://news.jinghua.cn/348/c/201108/09/n3428025.shtml

Study Times: The Contemporary Value of Mao’s Ideology of Forming a United Front

 Li Anji, an official with the China Soong Ching Ling Foundation, wrote in Study Times that understanding Mao Zedong’s ideology on forming alliances is critical to building a harmonious society. Li addressed the issue from three perspectives: the pragmatism, the long-term vision, and the tactics of Mao’s ideology in forming alliances with non-Communist Party organizations. “Currently, the most important historical task placed in front of the Communist Party’s Central Committee and the people is to build a harmonious socialist society. To that end, the following has important theoretical and practical revelations: to sum up and learn from the rich and harmonious concepts in Mao’s united front ideology will assist us in spotting the main issue in contemporary China, coordinating the ever-widening disparity of interests of different groups, solidifying the domestic united front, building a harmonious society, creating a harmonious domestic environment for economic and social development, establishing a broad international united front, strengthening international exchange and cooperation, and creating a peaceful international environment for the rise of China.“

Source: Study Times, August 8, 2011
http://www.studytimes.com.cn:9999/epaper/xxsb/html/2011/08/08/08/08_16.htm

Money Weekly: When the U.S. Hurts, China Feels the Pain

Money Weekly published a piece stating that China must increase domestic demand by reducing taxes and fostering competition. He Wannan, a financial analyst on publicly traded companies, wrote an article titled, “Why does China feel the pain whenever the United States hurts?” The article states that, as the largest holder of U.S. debt, each of the 1.3 billion people in China has loaned $900 to the United States, the wealthiest country in the world. China has $US3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves in U.S. dollars and has nowhere to invest it. A small move would cause a market slide. “Why does China feel the pain whenever the United States hurts? Fundamentally, it is because in China’s rise, it has followed the path of an export oriented economy, with over one-third of GDP generated by demand from outside of China. … In a word, China must focus on domestic demand. Two critical factors are involved in reaching the goal: one is to reduce taxes and the other is to oppose (state) monopolies and foster competition."

Source: Money Weekly reprinted at jrj.com August 9, 2011
http://finance.jrj.com.cn/people/2011/08/09160610687375.shtml

International Herald Leader: The Aircraft Carrier Is Not an Exhibit

On August 5, 2011, the International Herald Leader, a newspaper under Xinhua, published an article titled “The Aircraft Carrier Is Not an Exhibit.” China’s first aircraft carrier, the former “Varyag” of Ukraine, is now being rebuilt and refurbished. According to the article, China’s dream is not about an aircraft carrier, but about the oceans. Having an aircraft carrier gives China the option of restoring its marine rights, expanding its maritime interests, and fulfilling the dream of its revival as an oceanic power. The article states,“It is impossible to have an aircraft carrier, a weapon, merely for display and show, but not target anyone.” “An aircraft carrier is a military ship by its very nature. Without the courage and will to use the ship to resolve a dispute, the ship cannot threaten anybody but the builder of the ship, as it consumes a lot of public money.”
 
The article concludes, “If all the countries that the aircraft carrier targets believe that China’s aircraft carrier is only for visiting or worshiping, it is not good news for world peace. We should not let them think so.” 

Source: International Herald Leader, August 10, 2011
http://news.xinhuanet.com/herald/2011-08/05/c_131029061.htm

Qiushi Journal: Be Alert to Possible U.S. Pressure to Depreciate the Chinese Yuan

Qiushi, a journal of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, published an article on August 8, 2011, titled “Be Alert to Possible U.S. Pressure to Depreciate the Chinese Yuan.” The article is based on the words of Hong Kong’s famous economist, Prof. Lang Xianping. “According to Lang’s friend who is in a U.S. economic decision-making group, the U.S. is developing a major strategy to suppress and devalue the Chinese yuan.”

Recalling how the U.S. forced Japan and the “Four Little Dragons” (Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore) to appreciate their currencies first and then devalue their currencies by selling their real estate and stock, the author accused the U.S. of “looting the fruits of economic development” of these countries. The article states, “China’s local governments have over 10 trillion (yuan) in debt. China’s real estate market bubble and high inflation result in the yuan appreciating outside of China and the yuan depreciating inside China, which is obviously contrary to the laws of the market. The laws of the market are irresistible. This is precisely the reason why the United States may devalue the Chinese yuan.” At the end of the article, the writer expressed the belief that China will have the wisdom to deal with the possible pressure from the U.S. and Western countries to depreciate the yuan.

Sorce: Qiushi Journal, August 9, 2011
http://www.qstheory.cn/lg/rpzm/jj/201108/t20110808_100458.htm

Huanqiu Article on the Downgrade of the US Credit Rating

Huanqiu published an article on August 9, 2011, about Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the US credit rating, titled “China Cannot Be As Incompetent As the United States.” The article states that the downgrade is due not only to the serious U.S. deficits and debt, but also to its “political crisis.” "The protracted quarrel between the two parties could do nothing to help reach an agreement on the debt ceiling. This system of checks and balances, combined with political self-interest, actually led to the partial dysfunction of the U.S. government." The article pointed out, “The United States does not have any authority who can make a final decision while ignoring all other opinions.”

The article admits that China will certainly suffer losses due to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and suggests China develop a domestic market in order to reduce China’s holdings of U.S. debt.  “For a long time, China has wanted to reduce its holdings of U.S. debt. However, an important reason why the reduction has not occurred is that China’s export-based economy tenaciously resists any reduction.”

Source: Huanqiu, August 9, 2011
http://world.huanqiu.com/roll/2011-08/1887738.html

Xinhua: U.S. Strengthens Air Reconnaissance over China

Xinhua recently published a digest report based on an article by the Russian newspaper Pravda. The Pravda article stated that the U.S. has insisted on strengthening its air reconnaissance missions regardless of China’s angry protests. The article expressed the belief that China’s air defense system is fully capable of defeating all types of U.S. reconnaissance aircraft. A Russian military expert suggested that, under the current tight Asia-Pacific situation, it is very important for the U.S. military to keep a close eye on China’s military movements, especially on its strategic nuclear capabilities, as well as China’s anti-missile systems.

Source: Xinhua, July 29, 2011
http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2011-07/29/c_121742052.htm

Xinhua: Libyan Rebels Embarrassed the West

Xinhua recently reported on the assassination of the Libyan rebel’s military commander. The report emphasized that the victim died as a result of infighting. It quoted Gaddafi’s spokesman as saying “For the U.K. this is a resounding slap in the face.” The timing of the event was very unfortunate for the U.K. since it happened only 24 hours after the U.K. diplomatically acknowledged the rebels. The BBC reported the assassination as “totally exposing” the internal disagreements among the rebels. Despite the infighting among the rebels, on July 30, NATO bombed the Libyan National Television Station. The article referred to several newspapers in Egypt, Hong Kong, and Russia whose comments questioned whether the rebels can actually control and manage post-Gaddafi Libya.

Source: Xinhua, August 1, 2011
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2011-08/01/c_121754127.htm