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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Xi Jinping: As Risks and Challenges Increase, Be Prepared for Combat Readiness

The military work conference of the Central Military Commission was held in Beijing on Jan 4. At the conference, Xi Jinping emphasized that China is still in an important period of strategic opportunities. As the number of risks and challenges are increasing, the entire army must do a solid job in preparing for combat readiness. In his speech, Xi said that the entire army must properly understand and grasp the general trend of China’s security and development, strengthen the sense of urgency and crisis, do a good job in preparing for a military fight, and resolutely fulfill the missions and tasks that the party and the people have entrusted to it. Xi also pointed out that it is necessary to establish the military strategy in the new era and to improve the capabilities of the combat forces.

Prior to the meeting, Xi signed the first military mobilization order of 2019. During the meeting he presented awards to 10 armed warfare units and 20 armed soldiers.

Source: Central News Agency, January 4, 2019
http://https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201901040341.aspx

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

China’s Aid for Pakistan’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

China has pledged to provide Pakistan with a total of $2 billion in financial aid to increase its foreign exchange reserves. Russian experts pointed out that there is a high possibility that China will respond to Pakistan’s request to provide financial support for its all-weather strategic partners.

In the year 2018, the value of the rupee shrank by more than 20 percent with respect to the dollar. Repayment of foreign debts, including $8 billion paid in December 2018, almost emptied Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves.

The ongoing three-month negotiation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has not generated any tangible results. The two sides will resume negotiations on January 15 for a loan of $7 to 8 billion. It is very likely that Pakistan will satisfy the conditions that the IMF has set and will make transparent all terms to international lenders of Chinese loans and infrastructure projects under the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. However, due to the budget gap, the Pakistani side has been in arrears in paying for the amount of work and services that the Chinese companies have completed. Therefore, it is very likely that the future loans received from the IMF will be used to pay to Chinese companies. The United States, which plays a major role within the IMF, has warned the IMF that the U.S. membership fee at the IMF is taxpayer’s money and should not be used to pay the Chinese lenders or Pakistani bond holders.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell to a critically low amount of only $7.3 billion, which cannot even cover imports in recent months. The international rating agency Fitch has listed Islamabad’s debt rating as junk. Against this backdrop, China’s commitment of $2 billion will strengthen the Pakistani economy, improve the overall foreign exchange reserves, and, more importantly, will help increase the confidence of foreign investors.

The current promised $2 billion is the second allocation within six months. In July 2018, Beijing already pledged $2 billion to Pakistan to deal with the economic crisis. Earlier, according to Pakistan’s newspaper The Express Tribune, quoting from a Chinese Ministry of Finance’s anonymous source, China will give additional financial support. However, this information has not been corroborated; nor has any other source denied it.

In view of this, Russian experts pointed out in an interview with the Russian Sputnik News that China and Pakistan have reached a consensus and will not disclose information on the specific amount and conditions of the financial assistance. Pakistan’s Minister of Finance, Asad Umar, did not answer inquiries from foreign media about China’s new financial assistance. Zhao Lijian, representative of the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad, insisted that he did not have the information regarding the amount of loans and investments under the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. However, he pointed out that China will continue to provide assistance for Pakistan’s economic development.

Source: Sputnik News, January 4, 2019
http://sputniknews.cn/opinion/201901041027279641/

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Luo Yuan on the “Military Attitude in the South China Sea”

At the 2019 Annual Meeting of Global Times on December 8, Luo Yuan, Executive Vice President and Secretary General of the China Strategic Culture Promotion Association, dismissed the opinion that (China’s) “military stance in the South China Sea is too weak.” He stated that China must have the strategic calmness to safeguard the sovereignty of the country. Luo implied that one shouldn’t look at what’s going on right now; the key is what will happen in the future.

Luo Yuan said that the situation in the South China Sea has changed a lot. China has built airports on the reefs and deployed defensive weapons and equipment. This was unimaginable 20 years ago.

Luo Yuan also analyzed the case of the Southern Combat Region’s spokesperson’s statement on November 30 regarding the U.S. ship’s intruding into of the Xisha territorial waters. Luo Yuan said that the Ministry of National Defense previously voiced “the South China Sea issue.” Now it is the local combat region that issues a statement. What is the function of the combat region? The combat region is established mainly to fight, that is, in the state of preparation for war. Our warships and planes have conducted evidence-collecting, warning, and expelling activities. This was absolutely impossible 20 years ago. Don’t talk about ‘avoiding the Sino-U.S. crisis.’ The best way to ‘avoid a crisis’ is if the U.S. warships don’t go into China’s territorial waters. To the United States, also, don’t talk about ‘freedom of navigation’ all day long. It is also time for China to say to the United States that China also needs to maintain ‘freedom of navigation.’”

Luo Yuan concluded, “So many people have questioned why the U.S. warships went to the Taiwan Strait and went to the South China Sea. Why hasn’t the army taken any measures? We advise everyone that we must have confidence in national defense; we must have strategic calmness; and we are gradually gaining strategic controlling power, accumulating the capability of a ‘must-win in fight.’”

Source: Global Times, December 8, 2018
http://world.huanqiu.com/exclusive/2018-12/13752537.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military US-China Relations

China’s Population Sees Negative Growth; First Time in 70 Years

China, as the world’s most populous country, has nearly 1.4 billion people. For decades, in order to control population growth, it implemented a one-child policy. However, in response to concerns about an aging society and a shrinking labor force, in 2016, the Chinese government allowed couples to have a second child.

Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, pointed out that despite the second child policy, the number of safely born infants in China in 2018 was 2.5 million less than the previous year, compared with the forecast of an increase of 790,000.

Based on the publicly available birth information of villages and towns across China, Yi believes that last year was a “historical turning point for the Chinese population” and its negative growth may have become an irreversible trend. The causes include the decline of women of reproductive age, as well as the high expenses of education, health care, and housing, making newly married couples reluctant to raise children.

Year 2018 was the first year of negative population growth since the establishment of People’s Republic of China in 1949. Yi’s observation is that the aging of the population has accelerated while China’s economic vitality has declined.

Source: Central News Agency, January 3, 2019
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201901030410.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Officials Held Accountable for African Swine Fever Outbreak

Although African swine fever continues to spread in China, the authorities emphasized that the epidemic is “overall controllable.” However, according to a local government website, 223 people in Liaoning and other places have been held accountable for deliberately hiding the epidemic information and have been slack in performing their duties of monitoring and investigation.

On December 30, 2018, Inner Mongolia’s Chinese Communist Party’s website published a release from the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, titled, “The General Office of the State Council seeks accountability for the prevention and control of African swine fever in Liaoning, Anhui, and Hunan.”

The above news was not widely picked up by mainland Chinese media. According to the release, the General Office of the State Council issued letters to Liaoning, Anhui, and Hunan, demanding serious investigation for responsibilities. These three provinces have seen intensive outbreaks of cases and even a small-scale epidemic.

According to the report, some county and township government officials in Liaoning Province passed the buck around, some deliberately hid the outbreak information and failed to implement the monitoring and investigation. In some cities and counties in Anhui and Hunan Provinces, the prevention and control work was not in place and there was a lack of efficacy in performing their duties. A total of 223 officials in the three provinces were punished.

The report also reminded the government officials that they must understand the difficulty and complexity of the prevention and control of the epidemic.

Source: Central News Agency, January 2, 2019
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201901020056.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

CNA: White-Collar Party Members to Fill in Lunch Time Duty for “Xicheng Aunts”

All parts of China are filled with so-called community mass organizations. They usually clean the streets, perform public welfare work, and at the same time they take responsibility for ensuring public security. In Beijing, the group is called “Chaoyang Residents” or “Xicheng Aunts.” In Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, they are called “Wulin Aunts.” According to a report from the Beijing Evening Newspaper, in Beijing’s Xicheng district, there are currently 81,885 registered “Xicheng Aunts” and the number of people involved in promoting “Peace in the Xicheng” project is over 100,000 with 1,452 special force teams.

The Central News Agency reported that these mass organizations in Beijing’s neighborhoods have repeatedly made contributions in reporting drug abuse in the community. Now Xicheng District intends to expand the group to involve the white-collar party members to be part of the group. The reason is that the existing members of Xicheng Aunts have to take a nap during the day. They wish to involve the white-collar party members so there will be no gap in the security patrol during the day.

According to Beijing Evening News, the idea of letting urban white-collar workers use their lunch break and put on uniforms to patrol the community is still under planning. It could be finalized next year. Once it comes true, the urban white-collar workers in Xicheng District will wear red vests and red armbands, and they will be active in the streets and lanes, becoming the “young age” Xicheng aunts.

In addition, since 2015, “Xicheng Aunts” has given tips on more than 30,000 pieces of illegal and criminal information, and assisted the public security organs in arresting more than 6,000 criminal suspects. In the near future, Xicheng District plans to use an open space to build a “Xicheng Aunts” exhibition hall to showcase the work that these “Xicheng aunts” have done.

Source: Central News Agency, December 16, 2018
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201812160054.aspx

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

CCTV Commentary: Comprehensively Strengthen the Party’s Leadership over Political and Legal Work

On December 27, Xi Jinping hosted a Political Bureau of the Central Committee meeting and reviewed the “Regulations on the Political and Legal Work of the Party.” The Paper published a commentary article that CCTV had originally reported. The article stated that Xi’s speech during the meeting, “further reinforced the party’s absolute leadership over political and legal work.” It called for all levels of the political and legal department to “study, understand, and implement the practice of political and legal work.” The article also commented that “promoting the rule by law is meant to further consolidate the party’s ruling status, improve the party’s ruling style, improve the party’s ability to govern, and ensure the long-term stability of the party and the country.” The article stated that, “the Political and Legal system must ensure that it is consistent with the Party Central Committee led by Xi in terms of its political stance, political direction, political principles, and political path, and that it is determined to be the guardian and the developer of the socialist country ruled by law.”

Source: The Paper, December 28, 2018
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_2788729

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

China’s Supreme Court Denied Then Admitted Loss of Multibillion Dollar Case Document

Cui Yongyuan is a former Chinese television host and producer. He is known for leaking information regarding the Chinese film industry’s yin-yang contracts leading to movie star Fan Bingbing’s removal from the spotlight in 2018.

A number of Chinese media reports that Cui broke involved another story that there is a mole inside China’s Supreme Court that stole the appeal documents of a multibillion case in Shaanxi Province. The bizarre thing is that the Supreme Court first denied the loss of the document. As soon as Cui released the evidence, the Court withdrew its previous statement and, on December 29, announced it would “launch an investigation.”

The lost documents involve a lawsuit that Kechley Energy Investment initiated in 2006. In 2003, Kechley signed a contract with state-owned Xi’an Institute of Geological and Mineral Exploration (XIGME) to form a join coal-mining project in Yulin city of Shaanxi Province. In 2006, XIGME signed another contract with a third party – a company in Hong Kong – regarding the same coal-mining project without Kechley’s consent and without legally dismissing the previous contract.

In September 2010, Shaanxi’s high court ruled in favor of XIGME and suspended the license of Kechley. The plaintiff took the case to the Supreme Court. In August 2011, Zhao Faqi, general manager and corporate representative of Kechley, was illegally arrested by police in Yulin city and detained for 133 days.

In November 2016, when Supreme Court judge Wang Linqing prepared to hand down a verdict in favour of Kechley, all of the documents disappeared from his office. According to Wang, when he immediately told the presiding judge Cheng Xinwen, Cheng appeared unconcerned about the loss. Wang requested the video footage from closed circuit TV camera installed in his office. To Wang’s surprise, Cheng checked the video footage himself and told Wang that both closed circuit TV cameras had been broken on the day that the documents disappeared. Wang later reported to Supreme Court Chief Justice Zhou Qiang, who also appeared unconcerned and didn’t pursue an investigation.

Coincidentally, just 20 days before the loss, Kechley’s Zhao Faqi, reported with his real name over the Internet that Zhao Zhengyong, the former secretary of the Shaanxi Provincial Party Committee, and others intervened in the case.

In 2017, a year later, the Supreme Court issued a ruling in Kechley’s favour, awarding it 13.7 million yuan for breach of contract. “According to the South China Morning Post, the court has been unable to implement the verdict because of the missing documents and has not explained how the ruling could be made without those documents.”

Hong Kong based Apple Daily quoted media from China that the case files were “lost” because they contained the instructions from the Chief Justice and the President of the Supreme People’s Court Zhou Qiang, and the then Vice President Xi Xiaoming. Now, Xi has been removed from office, but Zhou is still there. Clearly someone wanted to have these particular instructions disappeared from the court records.

On December 26, on his Weibo account, Cui Yongyuan pointed out that the Supreme Court has a mole, stealing the files of the multi-billion-dollar case.

The next day, the Supreme Court issued a statement that what Cui said, “has no factual evidence, and is a rumor.” Cui immediately rebutted that the Supreme Court was lying and hinted that he had more evidence. Cui also quoted the insider’s description of the story and revealed that the judge’s name was Wang Linqing.

On December 29, after Cui Yongyuan posted two screenshots of the above-mentioned files on Weibo, the Supreme Court admitted that the file was missing, and said that it has initiated the investigation procedure. That night, another Chinese media Huaxia Times broadcast a selfie video of Supreme Court judge Wang Linqing. Wang said in the video that “the video is for myself, to protect myself from unpredictable events and leave some evidence.”

As the story began to spread across the Internet, all mainland based Chinese media reports were deleted.

Source: Radio France International, December 31, 2018
http://disq.us/t/3a1dcdl
South China Morning Post, December 30, 2018
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2180042/chinas-supreme-court-forced-admit-it-lost-documents-long-running

Briefings | | |   Social Stability