Geo-Strategic Trend - 10. page

An Indian woman from the disputed border region of Arunachal Pradesh says she was detained for roughly 18 hours in Shanghai after Chinese immigration officers refused to recognize her Indian passport, asserting that it was invalid because China considers Arunachal Pradesh part of its own territory.

The traveler, identified as Pema Wang Thongdok, was en route from London to Japan with a planned three-hour layover in Shanghai. Instead, she says authorities blocked her onward travel, confined her to the transit area, and provided no clear information about her status, access to food, or basic airport facilities.

According to her account, immigration personnel and China Eastern Airlines staff mocked her and suggested she “apply for a Chinese passport.” She says her passport was confiscated, and despite holding a valid Japanese visa, she was prevented from boarding her connecting flight. She was only released late at night after friends in the UK contacted the Indian consulate in Shanghai.

The incident has triggered outrage in India, where many view it as a challenge to Indian sovereignty and an act of discrimination against citizens from Arunachal Pradesh.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 24, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202511240237.aspx

Chinese outlet Time Weekly recently reported that Vietnam has released new official economic data showing third-quarter GDP growth of 8.23 percent year-on-year. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told the National Assembly that Vietnam’s full-year GDP growth in 2025 is expected to reach eight percent.

Vietnam’s rapid expansion continues to be driven primarily by its manufacturing sector. The government aims for 10 percent GDP growth next year. Earlier, the United States announced that it had signed a tariff framework agreement with Vietnam under which U.S. import tariffs on Vietnamese goods will average around 20 percent, though certain products will be exempt.

Manufacturing remains the standout engine of growth: according to the Vietnam General Statistics Office, manufacturing output rose 9.92 percent year-on-year from January to September. However, growth in the construction and service sectors has slowed compared with the second quarter.

Meanwhile, India, once the fastest-growing major economy in Asia, is facing growing pressure from recent U.S. tariff measures. India’s merchandise exports fell 11.8 percent in October, and relations with Washington have been strained since the U.S. imposed 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods in August. The two sides have yet to reach an agreement.

The Reserve Bank of India forecasts GDP growth of 6.8 percent for fiscal year 2025–2026, while the Ministry of Finance projects 6.3–6.8 percent. With exports shrinking and imports rising, India’s trade deficit surged to a record US$41.68 billion in October, far higher than economists’ expectations of US$30 billion. In response, the Modi government has announced over US$5 billion in relief measures for exporters.

Separately, India’s state-owned oil company signed its first-ever procurement deal with the United States to import roughly 2.2 million tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) per year.

Source: Time Weekly, November 20, 2025
https://time-weekly.com/wap-article/325424

Major Taiwanese outlet Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that the tariff agreement between Taiwan and the United States is expected to be announced soon. Taiwan’s investment commitments in the U.S. will reportedly fall between those of Japan and South Korea—potentially around US$400 billion—and include TSMC’s US$165 billion investment in Arizona. Taiwan is also expected to support the development of U.S.-based science parks modeled on those in Taiwan.

A U.S. official noted that, compared with the agreements reached with Japan and South Korea, Taiwan’s commitments are not vague pledges, but consist of investments that are already planned or even underway.

Notably, Wu Cheng-wen, chairman of Taiwan’s National Science Council, stressed that the United States will not impose high tariffs on Taiwan’s world-leading semiconductor sector. He said Taiwan will help the United States learn from Taiwan’s industrial ecosystem so that the U.S. can become a semiconductor manufacturing powerhouse. Taiwan has also reached an understanding with Washington that it will support the development of the U.S. chip industry in exchange for tariff reductions.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) did not respond to requests for comment.

Source: LTN, November 21, 2025
https://stock.ltn.com.tw/article/qw9xfss3k20f

Beijing’s response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remarks about Taiwan have escalated tensions between China and Japan, with Chinese authorities advising citizens against traveling to Japan. The impact on tourism has been swift and significant, with travel platform data revealing a dramatic reshuffling of popular outbound destinations.

Following the government’s advisory, major Chinese travel companies report that tourists have begun canceling and modifying their Japan travel plans over the past two days. Travel agencies are actively coordinating with hotels to arrange penalty-free cancellations. A representative from a major travel enterprise indicated that all promotional content related to Japan tourism has been removed from their platforms, and they anticipate declining prices for flights and hotels to Japan in the coming period.

Japan has traditionally been the top choice for Chinese outbound travelers. However, industry insiders now estimate that Japan will drop out of the top ten popular destinations during the upcoming New Year and Lunar New Year holiday periods. One consumer interviewed explained that after preparing for a year-end Japan trip—including visa applications, flight bookings, and hotel selections—they canceled everything and switched to Southeast Asian destinations including Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Data from Chinese travel platform Qunar shows that South Korea has surged to become the most popular outbound destination based on international flight bookings between November 15-16, with Seoul being the most searched city. Flight bookings to Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Indonesia have also increased substantially.

According to Japan National Tourism Organization statistics, Chinese visitors to Japan totaled 6.98 million in 2024, representing a 187.9 percent increase, and accounted for approximately 20-25 percent of all visitors. Japanese industry observers believe the sharp decline in Chinese tourists will significantly impact Japan’s tourism, retail, and consumer sectors.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 18, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202511180197.aspx

Japan’s proposal to hold a trilateral summit with China and South Korea in January has been rejected by China, casting uncertainty over the future of the meeting. The impasse stems from Chinese anger over remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan, according to diplomatic sources who revealed the information on November 22.

During a House of Representatives Budget Committee meeting on November 7, Takaichi stated that a Taiwan contingency “could constitute an existential crisis situation.” The comment triggered a sharp deterioration in Japan-China relations. China responded by advising its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, suspending import procedures for Japanese seafood products, and informing South Korea that a planned trilateral culture ministers’ meeting scheduled for November 24 would be postponed. Through diplomatic channels, China has reportedly communicated to relevant countries that Japan’s prime minister failed to handle the situation appropriately, making a summit meeting impossible.

The three nations’ foreign ministers had met in Tokyo in March and agreed to hold a leaders’ summit at an appropriate time. Japan, serving as the rotating chair, quietly sought China and South Korea’s agreement for a January meeting after determining that domestic parliamentary schedules made a gathering this year difficult. However, China’s refusal has left the timing unclear.

If realized, the summit would have brought Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Japan, potentially serving as an opportunity to normalize relations. Japan hopes to arrange the meeting as soon as possible after February, though scheduling faces challenges due to China’s Spring Festival in February and the customary National People’s Congress in March. The impact of Takaichi’s remarks has extended beyond bilateral relations to affect the entire trilateral cooperation framework.

Source: Kyodo News, November 22, 2025
https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2025/11/2e34550afdca-1.html

Major Chinese travel agencies have halted Japan-bound tourism operations following Beijing’s response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan. A representative from a large state-owned travel company’s Beijing headquarters told Kyodo News that the agency suspended group tours, individual travel packages, and visa processing services for Japan starting November 16, citing “the current bilateral situation.”

The suspension has created widespread disruption across the travel industry. When searching for keywords like “Japan” or “Tokyo” on the state-owned agency’s website, no travel products now appear. Customers who booked trips but haven’t departed are receiving full refunds without processing fees. Another major private travel company in Beijing has also stopped accepting new Japan travel bookings.

The impact extends beyond travel agencies. Japanese hotels have reported cancellations of accommodation and dining reservations from Chinese corporate clients. Additionally, China has experienced a massive wave of flight cancellations to Japan, with over 490,000 tickets canceled. A manager at another large Chinese travel agency revealed that promotional materials for Japan tours have been removed, and numerous tourists have requested refunds or itinerary changes in recent days.

This development carries significant economic implications for both countries. Japan ranks as China’s most popular travel destination, making Japan tours a cornerstone product for Chinese travel agencies. The suspension affects not only major agencies but may force smaller competitors to follow suit.

According to Japan National Tourism Organization statistics, Chinese visitors to Japan reached 7.49 million during January through September 2025, a 42.7 percent increase from the previous year and surpassing the entire 2024 total of 6.98 million visitors.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 18, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202511180232.aspx