Geo-Strategic Trend - 8. page

Taiwan’s Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that a new survey released by Teikoku Databank, a Japanese data research firm, shows Japanese companies are increasingly scaling back their dependence on China across manufacturing, sales, and tourism. The recent escalation of diplomatic tensions between China and Japan has heightened awareness among Japanese businesses of the risks associated with operating in China.

According to the survey, only 16.2 percent of companies with overseas operations now consider China their most important market, down from 23.8 percent in 2019. Among all respondents, the share viewing China as their top market fell from 25.9 percent to 12.3 percent. The survey gathered responses from 1,908 companies, 59 percent of which employ more than 1,000 people. These findings align with the steady decline in Japan–China trade in recent years.

Data from the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) shows that Japan’s exports to China fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, dropping 24 percent compared to 2021. Some Japanese industries and regions have already begun diversifying and expanding into new markets. In Hokkaido, for instance, tourists from mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for 42 percent of arrivals in August 2019 but only 23 percent this August, while South Korean visitors now dominate the region’s tourism demand.

Source: CNA, November 26, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202511060374.aspx

An Indian woman from the disputed border region of Arunachal Pradesh says she was detained for roughly 18 hours in Shanghai after Chinese immigration officers refused to recognize her Indian passport, asserting that it was invalid because China considers Arunachal Pradesh part of its own territory.

The traveler, identified as Pema Wang Thongdok, was en route from London to Japan with a planned three-hour layover in Shanghai. Instead, she says authorities blocked her onward travel, confined her to the transit area, and provided no clear information about her status, access to food, or basic airport facilities.

According to her account, immigration personnel and China Eastern Airlines staff mocked her and suggested she “apply for a Chinese passport.” She says her passport was confiscated, and despite holding a valid Japanese visa, she was prevented from boarding her connecting flight. She was only released late at night after friends in the UK contacted the Indian consulate in Shanghai.

The incident has triggered outrage in India, where many view it as a challenge to Indian sovereignty and an act of discrimination against citizens from Arunachal Pradesh.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 24, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202511240237.aspx

Chinese outlet Time Weekly recently reported that Vietnam has released new official economic data showing third-quarter GDP growth of 8.23 percent year-on-year. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told the National Assembly that Vietnam’s full-year GDP growth in 2025 is expected to reach eight percent.

Vietnam’s rapid expansion continues to be driven primarily by its manufacturing sector. The government aims for 10 percent GDP growth next year. Earlier, the United States announced that it had signed a tariff framework agreement with Vietnam under which U.S. import tariffs on Vietnamese goods will average around 20 percent, though certain products will be exempt.

Manufacturing remains the standout engine of growth: according to the Vietnam General Statistics Office, manufacturing output rose 9.92 percent year-on-year from January to September. However, growth in the construction and service sectors has slowed compared with the second quarter.

Meanwhile, India, once the fastest-growing major economy in Asia, is facing growing pressure from recent U.S. tariff measures. India’s merchandise exports fell 11.8 percent in October, and relations with Washington have been strained since the U.S. imposed 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods in August. The two sides have yet to reach an agreement.

The Reserve Bank of India forecasts GDP growth of 6.8 percent for fiscal year 2025–2026, while the Ministry of Finance projects 6.3–6.8 percent. With exports shrinking and imports rising, India’s trade deficit surged to a record US$41.68 billion in October, far higher than economists’ expectations of US$30 billion. In response, the Modi government has announced over US$5 billion in relief measures for exporters.

Separately, India’s state-owned oil company signed its first-ever procurement deal with the United States to import roughly 2.2 million tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) per year.

Source: Time Weekly, November 20, 2025
https://time-weekly.com/wap-article/325424

Major Taiwanese outlet Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that the tariff agreement between Taiwan and the United States is expected to be announced soon. Taiwan’s investment commitments in the U.S. will reportedly fall between those of Japan and South Korea—potentially around US$400 billion—and include TSMC’s US$165 billion investment in Arizona. Taiwan is also expected to support the development of U.S.-based science parks modeled on those in Taiwan.

A U.S. official noted that, compared with the agreements reached with Japan and South Korea, Taiwan’s commitments are not vague pledges, but consist of investments that are already planned or even underway.

Notably, Wu Cheng-wen, chairman of Taiwan’s National Science Council, stressed that the United States will not impose high tariffs on Taiwan’s world-leading semiconductor sector. He said Taiwan will help the United States learn from Taiwan’s industrial ecosystem so that the U.S. can become a semiconductor manufacturing powerhouse. Taiwan has also reached an understanding with Washington that it will support the development of the U.S. chip industry in exchange for tariff reductions.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) did not respond to requests for comment.

Source: LTN, November 21, 2025
https://stock.ltn.com.tw/article/qw9xfss3k20f

Beijing’s response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remarks about Taiwan have escalated tensions between China and Japan, with Chinese authorities advising citizens against traveling to Japan. The impact on tourism has been swift and significant, with travel platform data revealing a dramatic reshuffling of popular outbound destinations.

Following the government’s advisory, major Chinese travel companies report that tourists have begun canceling and modifying their Japan travel plans over the past two days. Travel agencies are actively coordinating with hotels to arrange penalty-free cancellations. A representative from a major travel enterprise indicated that all promotional content related to Japan tourism has been removed from their platforms, and they anticipate declining prices for flights and hotels to Japan in the coming period.

Japan has traditionally been the top choice for Chinese outbound travelers. However, industry insiders now estimate that Japan will drop out of the top ten popular destinations during the upcoming New Year and Lunar New Year holiday periods. One consumer interviewed explained that after preparing for a year-end Japan trip—including visa applications, flight bookings, and hotel selections—they canceled everything and switched to Southeast Asian destinations including Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Data from Chinese travel platform Qunar shows that South Korea has surged to become the most popular outbound destination based on international flight bookings between November 15-16, with Seoul being the most searched city. Flight bookings to Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Indonesia have also increased substantially.

According to Japan National Tourism Organization statistics, Chinese visitors to Japan totaled 6.98 million in 2024, representing a 187.9 percent increase, and accounted for approximately 20-25 percent of all visitors. Japanese industry observers believe the sharp decline in Chinese tourists will significantly impact Japan’s tourism, retail, and consumer sectors.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 18, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202511180197.aspx