Geo-Strategic Trend - 12. page

Germany has become heavily dependent on China for essential pharmaceutical supplies, raising concerns about national health security. A new study warns that if Chinese suppliers were to halt production, Germany could face an annual shortage of 42 million medicine packages, with no alternative sources available.

The report, commissioned by the German generic drug association Pro Generika and conducted by the German Economic Institute (IW), found that 68% of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used in Europe come from Asia—24% from China and 37% from India. The reliance is even greater in antibiotics: 47% of global antibiotic production facilities are in China, 27% in India, and only 23% in Europe.

A stress test by the researchers showed that any disruption in Chinese supply chains would leave tens of millions of medicine packages unavailable each year. Of 56 critical active ingredients examined, 20 were categorized as high-risk, while only 10.2% of Europe’s API demand can currently be met by domestic production.

The study also revealed that 81% of Germany’s vitamin imports and 76% of antibiotic raw materials originate from China. Key medicines such as the diabetes drug Metformin and the painkiller Paracetamol could face severe shortages if Chinese exports were interrupted.

Andreas Burkhardt, chairman of Pro Generika, warned that Germany’s dependence on Chinese pharmaceutical production “makes the country politically vulnerable.” Jasmina Kirchhoff of IW Cologne noted that this dependency is not coincidental, citing China’s fast-growing innovation capacity—especially in biotechnology—as a major factor driving Europe’s reliance.

David Francas of the Medical Supply Chain Institute added that dependence increases further up the supply chain, with certain raw materials almost entirely sourced from China. In the United States, he noted, 87% of medicines rely on Chinese raw materials.

Currently, Germany’s Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices lists around 540 medicines as facing supply shortages—underscoring how fragile Europe’s pharmaceutical supply chains have become.

Source: Sputnik News, October 22, 2025
https://sputniknews.cn/20251022/1068020301.html

China has announced plans to select and train Pakistan’s first astronauts, marking the first time Beijing will conduct such a program for another nation. The announcement was made during a press conference for the Shenzhou 21 manned space mission at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center.

The initiative follows a bilateral cooperation agreement signed in February between China and Pakistan. The astronaut selection process has now officially begun and will unfold in three stages: an initial screening in Pakistan, followed by secondary and final selections in China. Once chosen, two Pakistani astronauts will undergo training alongside their Chinese counterparts.

Ultimately, one astronaut will be selected to join a short-term flight mission aboard China’s space station as a payload specialist, performing standard crew duties and conducting scientific experiments on behalf of Pakistan.

A spokesperson for China’s manned space program emphasized that the country’s space initiatives have consistently adhered to the principles of peaceful use, equality, mutual benefit, and shared development. China, the spokesperson added, welcomes international astronauts to participate in its missions and looks forward to deepening collaboration with the global space community.

The China–Pakistan space cooperation agreement, signed on February 28 in Islamabad between China’s Manned Space Engineering Office and Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), marks a major milestone in the two nations’ strategic partnership. The year-long selection and training program underscores China’s expanding role in international space collaboration and Pakistan’s growing ambitions in space science and exploration.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 30, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202510300120.aspx

A South Korean youth group, Free University, has drawn national attention with protests that have ignited debate over rising Sinophobia in the country. Demonstrators were seen tearing Chinese national flags printed with portraits of President Xi Jinping and Wang Huning, Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, while chanting slogans critical of Chinese nationals. The incidents have sparked widespread discussion about the limits of political expression in South Korea.

The protests intensified following the government’s September 7 announcement of a temporary visa exemption policy for Chinese tour groups, aimed at boosting economic recovery. The move triggered backlash among segments of the public opposed to visa-free entry for Chinese visitors, fueling broader debate over Seoul’s China policy.

President Lee Jae-myung addressed the controversy by drawing a distinction between freedom of speech and what he described as “disruptive behavior,” saying the demonstrations had crossed that line. His comments underscore the administration’s cautious approach to managing domestic dissent during a sensitive diplomatic moment.

The unrest comes as South Korea prepares to host the 2025 APEC Leaders’ Summit in Gyeongju from October 31 to November 1, where both Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump are in attendance. The protests and ensuing public debate present a delicate challenge for the Lee administration, which must balance domestic sentiment with diplomatic priorities. The situation highlights enduring tensions between South Korea’s economic engagement with China and the increasingly polarized public attitudes toward its powerful neighbor.

Source: BBC Chinese, October 28, 2025
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/articles/c8r0yjmpgzno/simp

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Kuala Lumpur on October 27, amid renewed tensions following a South China Sea confrontation between the two countries’ militaries. During the meeting, Albanese directly raised concerns over a Chinese military aircraft’s use of flares near an Australian patrol plane, while Li urged for stronger bilateral cooperation and stability in ties.

According to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Li expressed satisfaction with the positive momentum in China-Australia relations and called for deeper strategic alignment and policy coordination. He highlighted the role of dialogue mechanisms such as the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue and Joint Economic Commission, and expressed interest in upgrading the bilateral free trade agreement to further expand economic cooperation.

Li also pledged continued support for Chinese investment in Australia, urging Canberra to ensure an open, transparent, and non-discriminatory environment for Chinese businesses. He further emphasized cooperation in youth exchanges, education, and tourism, areas that have seen steady recovery since the normalization of bilateral ties.

For his part, Albanese said Australia remains committed to maintaining open communication with China, deepening mutual understanding, and managing differences responsibly, while expanding cooperation in trade and other areas of shared interest. After the meeting, Albanese told reporters that he had raised the flare incident “directly and clearly,” calling it “a matter of concern” for Australia.

The meeting marked the seventh encounter between the two leaders since relations began to thaw in 2022, underscoring both sides’ willingness to address disagreements through dialogue despite ongoing friction.

The latest tensions stem from an October 19 incident in which Australia accused a Chinese fighter jet of firing flares near an Australian patrol aircraft over the South China Sea—an act Canberra described as unsafe and unprofessional. Beijing rejected the accusation, saying the Australian aircraft had violated Chinese sovereignty and that its forces took lawful and necessary countermeasures.

Beyond the South China Sea, Australia and China continue to vie for influence in the Pacific region, where both nations are seeking to strengthen defense and development partnerships with island states.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 27, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202510270194.aspx

On September 22, 2025, the Chinese container ship Istanbul Bridge departed from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, embarking on a historic voyage through Russia’s Northern Sea Route to reach Britain’s Port of Felixstowe on October 13. This inaugural journey of the world’s first regular “China–Europe Arctic Express” container route cut travel time from the traditional 40–50 days to just 21 days—a savings of 22 days compared to routes via the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. The timing was notable, coming just as Poland suspended China–Europe Railway Express operations following Russian drone incursions near its border.

The Istanbul Bridge carried roughly 4,000 standard containers valued at about 1.4 billion yuan ($197 million), including power batteries and clothing—cargo that Chinese officials touted as proof of the “fastest maritime container route” linking China with major European ports. The ship sailed through the Sea of Japan, Bering Strait, along Russia’s Siberian coast, and into the North Sea, before docking at Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Gdansk.

Analysts say this development represents far more than a commercial trial. Malte Humpert, founder of The Arctic Institute in Washington, noted that a series of global trade disruptions—from the Red Sea crisis to intensifying U.S.–China trade disputes—has increased the Arctic’s appeal as an alternative corridor, potentially alleviating China’s long-standing “Malacca Strait dilemma.” Alexander Dalziel of Canada’s Macdonald-Laurier Institute added that the route also symbolizes Russia’s repayment for China’s diplomatic and economic support during the Ukraine war, while helping Beijing position itself as a legitimate Arctic stakeholder.

China first outlined its “Polar Silk Road” concept in its 2018 Arctic Policy White Paper, framing it as the northern extension of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since then, Beijing has steadily expanded its Arctic capabilities—this past summer alone, it deployed five research vessels, including icebreakers, in the Arctic Ocean, and conducted joint maritime patrols with Russia near Alaska.

The strategic implications extend beyond the Sino-Russian partnership. By making Gdansk a port of call, Beijing signals to Poland and other Central and Eastern European nations that it now possesses alternative trade routes independent of the overland China–Europe Railway Express—potentially undermining Warsaw’s leverage over logistics and transit timing. Analysts describe this as a classic “carrot-and-stick” approach: enticing Europe with cheap Russian LNG shipped via the Arctic, while implicitly warning that China can reroute trade flows at will.

Yet significant hurdles persist. The Northern Sea Route is navigable for only five to six months each year, with less than 30% annual viability. Severe winter storms and drifting ice can delay voyages by over a week, and search-and-rescue operations in the region remain perilous and logistically challenging.

Despite these constraints, Beijing’s message is unmistakable: as the polar ice recedes, China has arrived in the Arctic—and its ambitions are no longer frozen at the periphery.

Source: BBC, October 24, 2025
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/articles/cdx4gdpn2eyo/simp

Radio France Internationale (RFI) Chinese Edition recently reported that North Korea is circumventing UN sanctions by using cryptocurrencies to trade weapons and raw materials. The DPRK is also sending computer programmers abroad to launder money and earn foreign currency.

Under Kim Jong-un’s leadership, Pyongyang has seen a significant increase in initiation of cyberattacks. The Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT), which oversees UN sanctions against North Korea, found that North Korean hackers stole at least US$1.65 billion between January and September 2025, of which US$1.4 billion was stolen from the cryptocurrency exchange Bybi in February alone. North Korean officials also use stablecoins (cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar) for procurement-related transactions, including the sale and transfer of military supplies and raw materials such as copper.

In the meantime, North Korea has also circumvented UN sanctions by sending IT professionals to work in at least eight countries. Most of these individuals have been sent to China, but some have also gone to Russia, Laos, Cambodia, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea, Nigeria, and Tanzania. MSMT cited a 2024 report by the U.S. think tank 38 North, saying that some North Korean IT experts concealed their identities and successfully undertook outsourcing work for animation projects from Japanese and U.S. companies, including Amazon and HBO Max. South Korean intelligence agencies say North Korean spies are also using the social networking platform LinkedIn to impersonate recruiters and lure employees of South Korean defense companies.

Source: RFI Chinese, October 25, 2025
https://tinyurl.com/53zk8rvb

When Sanae Takaichi was elected and sworn in as Japan’s new prime minister on October 21, China’s response was notably restrained. A commentary published on the WeChat account “Niu Tan Qin,” which is linked to China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency, analyzed Beijing’s cautious stance toward the new leader, dubbing her the “female Trump.”

China notably refrained from offering any formal congratulations to Takaichi, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun merely acknowledging that China had “noted the election results” and describing it as “Japan’s internal affair.” This was in stark contrast to China’s immediate congratulations to Bolivia’s newly elected president on the same day. More pointedly, Guo reiterated hopes that Japan would “honor its political commitments on major issues, including history and Taiwan”—a statement not made when Ishiba Shigeru previously assumed office, suggesting Beijing may be drawing a “red line” for Takaichi.

The commentary portrays Takaichi as consistently antagonistic toward China, accusing her of tarnishing China’s image, denying the Nanjing Massacre, promoting the “China threat” narrative, and making provocative statements on Taiwan. Her frequent visits to the contentious Yasukuni Shrine and her push for constitutional reform to transform Japan’s Self-Defense Forces into a national military were also highlighted. Takaichi’s focus on cross-strait issues is well-known, including her famous assertion that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency.”

The analysis presents three potential scenarios for Sino-Japanese relations under Takaichi’s leadership, but it dismisses the possibility of her moderating her positions as unrealistic. The article warns that if she pursues her conservative agenda and attempts to turn Japan into an anti-China pivot in the Indo-Pacific, bilateral relations could face “turbulent waters or even stormy seas.” Despite these concerns, the analysis expresses confidence, questioning what damage even a hostile Japanese leader could inflict on China given the current balance of power. It concludes with a prediction that Takaichi’s tenure will be short-lived—one year would be an achievement, two years a miracle, and three years would be impossible.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 22, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202510220244.aspx

Taiwan’s Central News Agency (CNA) reports that the European Union (EU) is weighing new measures that could require Chinese companies to transfer technology to European firms as a condition for operating within the EU. The proposed policy aims to bolster the bloc’s industrial competitiveness and reduce dependence on foreign technology.

The measures would target companies entering key EU digital and manufacturing sectors, including automotive and battery industries. They may mandate the use of a certain proportion of EU-made components or labor, and require value-added production within Europe. The EU is also considering compulsory joint ventures between European and non-European companies. Although the rules would technically apply to all foreign firms, officials acknowledge that the initiative is primarily aimed at curbing the dominance of Chinese manufacturers.

The proposal, expected to be unveiled in November, reflects growing anxiety within Europe about China’s expanding presence in strategic industries. It also signals a potential shift toward a more protectionist approach in EU industrial policy.

Analysts warn, however, that mirroring Beijing’s own protectionist practices could trigger retaliation from China and strain the crucial trade ties between the two economies.

Source: CNA, October 14, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202510143005.aspx