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Japan and Philippines Accuse China of Dangerous Military Actions, Heightening Regional Security Tensions

Japan and the Philippines have recently accused the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and China of “dangerous military conduct,” underscoring sharply rising security tensions in the region. Japan reported that Chinese warplanes from the carrier Liaoning locked their fire-control radar on Japanese Air Self-Defense Force F‑15 fighters twice near Okinawa — an act Tokyo described as reckless and hazardous to international air safety. Meanwhile, the Philippines alleges that Chinese forces fired warning flares at one of its patrol aircraft over a disputed area of the South China Sea.

The incidents occurred just weeks after Japan’s new prime minister suggested the possibility of collective self-defense in response to a crisis in Taiwan, a stance that has already drawn a sharp reaction from Beijing. Both Tokyo and Manila have formally protested the latest actions, demanding that China take measures to prevent such behavior from recurring.

Source: VOA, December 9, 2025
https://www.voachinese.com/a/japan-and-the-philippines-accuse-china-of-dangerous-military-conduct-escalating-security-pressure-on-us-allies-20251208/8091444.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

CSIS: Wargame Simulation Indicates Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Unlikely to Succeed if Taiwan, U.S., and Japan Respond Jointly

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent comments regarding a potential “Taiwan contingency” have prompted a strong reaction from Beijing. Analysts argue that this response reflects more than diplomatic friction—it reveals China’s underlying concerns about U.S.–Japan military cooperation in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict. Japanese media, citing former Maritime Self-Defense Force officer and current military analyst “Major General Wolf,” note that these concerns rest on concrete strategic simulations rather than conjecture.

A 2023 wargame assessment by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) examined 24 potential invasion scenarios. In the simulations, China secured victory in only two, and only when the United States and Japan failed to coordinate their actions. In nearly every other case, joint U.S.–Japan involvement significantly diminished the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) chances of occupying Taiwan.

Experts distill the formula for preventing a successful takeover into three interdependent factors: Taiwan’s determination to defend itself, U.S. military intervention, and Japanese logistical and basing support. All three components, they argue, are essential. China’s sharp response to Takaichi’s remarks underscores this strategic reality—robust trilateral alignment among Taiwan, the United States, and Japan would make a PLA victory in the Taiwan Strait highly improbable.

Source: Secret China, December 3, 2025
https://www.secretchina.com/news/b5/2025/12/03/1091482.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

People’s Daily: China and ASEAN Countries Accelerate Integrated Market Development Efforts

Chinese government news outlet People’s Daily reported that China and ASEAN member states are deepening cooperation in digital payments, e-commerce, AI, and supply-chain networks under an upgraded Free Trade Agreement, the “FTA 3.0 Protocol.”

The Thai central bank has integrated the country’s PromptPay system with major Chinese mobile payment platforms, including Alipay and WeChat Pay, enabling seamless QR-code payments for Chinese visitors. Huawei Cloud has “enhanced local transaction stability,” while Thai hospitals have begun using AI-powered translation tools to better serve Chinese-speaking patients.

Singapore has rolled out an AI travel assistant, offering itineraries in Chinese. China and Malaysia have jointly launched an AI-focused training academy integrating big data and generative AI into workforce development. Meanwhile, JD Logistics has established a major supply hub in Malaysia and is expanding its services into Vietnam.

Industrial cooperation is also strengthening, People’s Daily reports. China-ASEAN automotive collaboration now spans raw materials, production, and sales, “supported by unified standards and regional logistics networks.” At the border, China and Vietnam are building a smart port at Youyi Pass, “enabling 24-hour, zero-wait customs clearance to further streamline trade flows.”

Source: People’s Daily, December 3, 2025
https://world.people.com.cn/n1/2025/1203/c1002-40616109.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Greenland Seeks “Democratic Partners” for Rare-Earth Development, Not Open to Join Development With China

Greenland Premier Nielsen told Japanese media Nikkei on November 19 that Greenland is seeking partners from “sound democracies” to jointly develop its rare-earth resources, expressing interest in collaboration with Japan, the EU, and the United States. He noted that EU countries are already engaged in raw-material projects on the island and expressed hope to strengthen those partnerships.

Despite China’s global dominance in rare-earth production, Nielsen emphasized that China is not being considered as a partner. Greenland has received no investment requests from Chinese companies and does not view China as a future collaborator. Instead, the island is focused on working with allies and like-minded nations.

Denmark, the EU member state responsible for Greenland, is also unlikely to support Chinese investment, given the EU’s efforts to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals. According to EU officials, most of the minerals designated as strategic by the European Commission are found in Greenland, prompting the island to prioritize joint projects with Europe and Japan.

Source: Epoch Times, November 22, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/25/11/22/n14641177.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

LTN: Taiwan Blocks Chinese Social Media App “Red Note” for One Year

Major Taiwanese news network Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported that the Taiwanese Interior Ministry has announced a one-year ban on the popular Chinese social media app Red Note, citing a crackdown on fraud.

Governments around the world expressed deep concern about cybersecurity vulnerabilities associated with Chinese apps like Red Note and TikTok, as well as the growing prevalence of disinformation campaigns on such apps. Furthermore, Chinese regulations require Chinese-operated companies to store data domestically within China and to allow the Chinese government full access to that data. Beijing actively monitors and censors content that it deems unfavorable, a practice experts say can influence public opinion.

Red Note has rapidly gained popularity among young people in Taiwan in recent years, reaching three million users, or 13% of Taiwan’s population of 23 million. This Red Note platform has raised concerns among Taiwanese officials, as Red Note has been involved in 1,706 fraud cases within the past two years. The Taiwanese Ministry of the Interior said that Red Note is a “malicious platform” that “transmits users’ personal data to certain locations in China,” and that Red Note is illegal in Taiwan as the platform “did not appoint a legal representative in Taiwan, comply with local laws and regulations, and fulfill [other] legal obligations.”

Source: LTN, December 6, 2025
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/5269356

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

Lianhe Zaobao: One-Third of Surveyed EU Companies Plan to Stop Procurement in China

A new survey released by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China shows that one-third of surveyed EU chamber of commerce member companies are considering shifting their sourcing out of China and are seeking new supply chain arrangements. The shift is primarily motivated by uncertainty around the U.S.-China trade war as well as tightening Chinese export controls.

The survey, conducted from November 6 to 24, involved 131 member companies of the EU chamber of commerce. The survey revealed that 32 percent of respondents planned to shift their procurement outside of China due to Beijing’s export controls; and 39 percent indicated that the Ministry of Commerce of China was processing export licenses slower than the promised 45 days.

The survey also showed that nearly 70 percent of respondents indicated their overseas production facilities rely on Chinese components affected by export controls; 50 percent indicated that the products of their suppliers or customers have already been or will soon be included in the scope of controls.

In October of this year, China announced stricter export controls on rare earths, shocking global markets and exacerbating European companies’ concerns about further disruptions to supply chains. Of the 131 companies surveyed, 75 indicated that they had been affected by the relevant controls. For now, the U.S. and China have not yet formally signed an agreement, and the EU is also trying to include itself in the relevant arrangements.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, December 1, 2025
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20251201-7899734

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Huanqiu Times: U.S. Deploys Marine Task Force to Philippines to Strengthen Allied Coordination

According to Stars and Stripes, citing the U.S. Pacific Fleet, the United States has deployed a military task force to the Philippines. The unit is led by Major General Thomas Savage, commanding general of the 1st Marine Division stationed at Camp Pendleton, California. The task force is responsible for coordinating exercises and operations between U.S. forces stationed on the islands and the Philippine military. The task force does not include equipment, warships, aircraft, or vehicles, and for operational security reasons, officials declined to disclose its headquarters. While the number of U.S. personnel will rotate based on host-country needs, approximately 60 core members will serve as the main staff.

A Chinese analyst suggested that the key message the U.S. task force conveys is America’s support for its allies and commitment to security cooperation, providing reassurance to the Philippine military.

Another analyst noted that the U.S. Marine Corps has three divisions. Typically, a Philippine task force would be led by the 3rd Marine Division, based in the Ryukyu Islands and responsible for South China Sea operations. However, in this case, leadership comes from the 1st Marine Division at Camp Pendleton. “From this detail, a few observations can be made: First, this may indicate that the 3rd Marine Division is currently heavily tasked and unable to spare personnel. Second, the U.S. may be planning to deploy the operational capabilities of the 1st Marine Division to the Indo-Pacific region, particularly the Western Pacific,” the analyst added.

Source: Huanqiu Times, November 30, 2025
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/4PLr3tl98S0

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

Dutch Chipmaker Nexperia Urges China Unit to Resume Operations Amid Disruptions

In a public letter issued on November 28, 2025, Dutch chipmaker Nexperia called on its Chinese subsidiary — controlled by Wingtech Technology — to restore normal supply-chain operations. The company warned that clients across multiple industries have reported that their production is “on the verge of shutdown,” highlighting the urgent need to stabilize chip deliveries.

Wingtech immediately pushed back, describing Nexperia’s allegations as “grossly misleading and false.” The Chinese parent company claims the disruption stems from what it calls an unlawful effort by Nexperia’s Dutch management to strip Wingtech of corporate control and shareholder rights. According to Wingtech, these moves — launched after the Dutch government intervened to seize supervisory control of Nexperia in September 2025 — triggered the breakdown in internal cooperation and subsequent supply-chain paralysis.

The dispute now extends far beyond corporate governance. Supplies for global automotive and electronics manufacturers have already been disrupted, as Nexperia primarily packages and tests its chips in China — especially at its major facility in Dongguan, Guangdong Province — before exporting them worldwide. Current inventory buffers may last only a few months, raising industrywide concerns over potential semiconductor shortages should the stalemate continue.

Background:
Nexperia, formerly a division of Philips, was acquired in 2018 by Chinese electronics group Wingtech. Over the following years, the parent Chinese company shifted a significant share of the company’s semiconductor output to China, with assembly and testing centered in Dongguan while wafer fabrication remained in Europe. In September 2025, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs invoked the wartime-era Goods Availability Act to take supervisory control of Nexperia, citing fears that core technology and intellectual property could be transferred to China. Beijing responded by halting exports of Nexperia-produced chips from China — disrupting the supply of key components for automakers and other global manufacturers and setting the stage for the current standoff.

Source: Epoch Times, November 28, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/11/28/n14645200.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend