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Taiwan Officials: China’s Interference, Not Absent Leaders, Is Real Threat to Pacific Unity

Taiwanese diplomatic officials pushed back on interpretations that the recent 55th Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) summit in Palau revealed cracks in Pacific unity due to some leaders skipping the event, arguing this framing oversimplifies the situation. They said the more significant concern is China’s ongoing efforts to inject geopolitical rivalry into the region, disrupting Pacific nations’ ability to jointly address shared issues.

Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung led a delegation to Palau for PIF-related events. While 13 members were represented by heads of state or government, Fiji, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and Samoa sent ministerial-level representatives—a pattern officials noted also occurred at the previous forum, making it not unprecedented.

Officials emphasized that Taiwan has participated in PIF mechanisms since 1993 as a “Development Partner,” respecting the “Pacific Way” principles of mutual respect, consensus, and solidarity, while contributing to initiatives like the Pacific Resilience Facility and the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent. By contrast, they said, China’s recent actions have raised regional concerns over security and political autonomy.

Regarding China’s intercontinental missile test in the Pacific this past July, officials noted that Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr. said forum leaders called for countries conducting such tests to ensure transparency with at least 24 hours’ advance notice—a proposal Nauru objected to. Officials said this incident better illustrates the real challenge to Pacific unity: nations with close ties to Beijing declining to support common positions on security matters.

Officials added that Taiwan does not ask Pacific nations to choose sides, while China uses military activity and political influence to obstruct consensus. Lin reiterated Taiwan’s commitment to working with PIF to keep the Pacific “an ocean of peace, not an arena of confrontation.”

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), September 5, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202609050103.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China’s Gains and Costs from the Ukraine War and U.S.-Iran Conflict

Since the Ukraine crisis began in 2022, along with intensifying U.S.-Iran tensions and disruptions to Red Sea shipping, global geopolitical and economic structures have undergone major realignment. Beijing has maintained a “non-direct involvement” strategy, avoiding direct participation while benefiting from the disruptions. In the short term, China has gained advantages in energy, market share, renminbi internationalization, and strategic relief. However, China is likely to face significant long-term costs from Western sanctions, declining trust in Chinese companies, and worsening security conditions in East Asia.

China’s main benefits include:

  • Energy: China has become Russia’s largest energy customer after Europe reduced its imports of Russian energy. Discounted Russian oil and gas have provided China with lower-cost energy while creating opportunities for Chinese companies.
  • Market Share in Russia: Chinese firms have expanded rapidly in Russia as Western companies withdrew. China-Russia trade increased from about $100 billion before the war to more than $240 billion, while Chinese automakers now hold more than 60 percent of Russia’s auto market and Chinese smartphones account for more than 70 percent.
  • Renminbi Settlement: The war has accelerated yuan-based trade settlement. More than 90 percent of China-Russia trade is now reportedly settled directly in yuan and rubles, compared with less than 2 percent before the war.
  • Strategic Relief: Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have consumed substantial Western military resources, potentially easing immediate U.S. and NATO pressure on China in the Indo-Pacific.

China also faces significant costs:

  • Western Secondary Sanctions: U.S. and Western sanctions are increasingly targeting third-country companies supplying Russia and Iran with dual-use technologies and other materials. Hundreds of Chinese and Hong Kong entities have been placed on U.S. sanctions or export-control lists, while the threat of secondary sanctions has prompted major Chinese banks to tighten or suspend some Russia- and Iran-related transactions.
  • Loss of Western Trust and Accelerating “De-risking” from China: Beijing’s support for Russia has accelerated European efforts to de-risk from China, potentially threatening access to China’s much larger Western markets. Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in the Middle East also face greater risks from conflict, including disruptions to construction, logistics, energy projects, and exports.
  • Worsening Northeast Asian Security Environment: The deteriorating security environment is a long-term concern. The growing military partnership between Russia and North Korea has strengthened Pyongyang’s position and could reduce Beijing’s influence over North Korea. Meanwhile, closer U.S.-Japan-South Korea security cooperation and deeper bloc-based confrontation could leave China facing a more militarized and polarized neighborhood.

Source:  Epoch Times, August 20, 2026
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/26/8/20/n14833109.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

Japan’s Pro-China Lawmakers Visit China to Improve Bilateral Ties, but Beijing Lectures Them Instead

A bipartisan group of Japanese lawmakers recently visited Beijing in an effort to restore political exchanges amid deteriorating Japan-China relations. The delegation included Shinichi Isa of the Centrist Reform Alliance, Gaku Hashimoto of the Liberal Democratic Party, and lawmakers from Komeito. Many of the delegates are considered relatively China-friendly and maintain some distance from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government.

But Beijing offered no apparent concessions. Instead, Lu Kang, a deputy head of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Department, told the delegation that Beijing had no intention of changing its current Japan policy unless Takaichi reverses her November parliamentary remarks that “a Taiwan contingency is a contingency for Japan.” The message was clear: Beijing is prepared to improve bilateral relations, but expects Japan to make concessions first.

Japanese commentator Akio Yaita criticized the lawmakers’ visit as a diplomatic miscalculation, arguing that Beijing used the meeting to pressure Tokyo rather than offer substantive concessions on issues such as export controls. He said Japan needs dialogue with China, but such engagement should be based on mutual respect. If Beijing believes Japan is eager to improve relations, he warned, it may demand a high price and repeatedly humiliate Japan.

Source: Liberty Times (Taiwan). August 29, 2026
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5556051

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Chinese Shipping Company Launches Regular Container Service via Russia’s Northern Sea Route

Chinese shipping company Sea Legend launched a container service from China to Europe via Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) on August 15. The company said the service will operate approximately weekly for seven weeks through early October. Its Dubai Tower freighter departed Ningbo-Zhoushan Port on August 15 and is expected to reach the UK’s Felixstowe Port in about 20 days.

The NSR runs along Russia’s Arctic coast between the Atlantic and Pacific and is one of the shortest maritime routes between Asia and Europe. It can significantly reduce transit times compared with routes through the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom, which oversees the NSR, said it had issued permits for seven Chinese vessels to use the route to Europe.

Sea Legend is not the first company to use the NSR. According to Allianz Commercial, 23 container ships used the route in 2025, up from 15 in 2024. However, major shipping companies including CMA CGM, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd have pledged to avoid Arctic transoceanic routes because of concerns that increased shipping activity could damage the fragile Arctic ecosystem and accelerate ice loss.

China has increasingly recognized the Arctic’s economic, scientific, and strategic importance. Although China has no Arctic territory, it became an observer of the Arctic Council in 2013 and has promoted an “Ice Silk Road” as an extension of its Belt and Road Initiative. Greater use of the NSR could provide China with an alternative route to Europe that is less dependent on traditional maritime chokepoints.

Source: Epoch Times, August 18, 2026
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/26/8/17/n14831781.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

People’s Daily: Southern Europe’s Economic Recovery Offers Lessons on Economic Opening for Europe

People’s Daily published an article describing the economic success of four Southern European countries—Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain.

The article says that the European debt crisis more than a decade ago pushed the four economies into severe fiscal and economic difficulties, but they have since staged a significant recovery. Spain’s GDP grew 2.8 percent in 2025, well above the euro-area average, while Italy maintained strong manufactured-goods exports and Greece and Portugal recorded government surpluses.

The article argues that their recovery has been driven by structural reforms and greater openness to international trade and investment. It highlights cooperation with China as an example. After Chinese shipping company COSCO became involved in the operation of Greece’s Piraeus Port, it upgraded the port and expanded its shipping network, turning the once-struggling facility into a major Mediterranean logistics hub and creating thousands of jobs. In Spain, Italy, and Portugal, Chinese companies have also invested in renewable energy, infrastructure, logistics, and advanced manufacturing, bringing capital, technology, and access to broader markets while supporting industrial upgrading and job creation.

The article concludes that economic openness can bring greater benefits than protectionism, suggesting that European countries should avoid policies aimed at restricting economic ties with China.

Source: People’s Daily, August 24, 2026
https://world.people.com.cn/n1/2026/0824/c1002-40784672.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Deutsche Bank Becomes First European Bank Authorized as Frankfurt’s RMB Clearing Bank

Deutsche Bank announced on August 10 that it has been authorized by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to serve as the RMB clearing bank in Frankfurt, making it a regional hub connecting European financial institutions and companies to China’s payment system. The bank will provide end-to-end clearing and settlement services for cross-border RMB transactions.

Deutsche Bank is reportedly the first European bank to receive the designation. As a globally systemically important bank and one of the world’s largest euro-clearing banks, Deutsche Bank has long supported trade and investment between China and Europe, serving German and European multinational companies as well as Chinese companies expanding overseas.

The appointment underscores Beijing’s continued efforts to promote RMB internationalization and expand the currency’s role in cross-border trade and finance. Deutsche Bank China President Yin Zhen said the bank will develop more efficient RMB clearing channels and expand offshore RMB products and services to facilitate China-Europe trade and investment. Deutsche Bank was also among the first international banks to connect directly to China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) in 2015.

Source: East Money, August 12, 2026
https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202608123839482197.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Taiwan Seeks to Dissolve Pro-China Party Over Alleged CCP Links

Taiwan’s Ministry of the Interior on August 7 petitioned the Constitutional Court to dissolve the China Unification Promotion Party (CUPP), led by Chang An-le, known as “White Wolf.” Interior Minister Liu Shih-fang said the party is a pro-China organization that has assisted CCP infiltration at the grassroots level, cross-border repression, and the use of Chinese capital to influence Taiwan’s elections. The ministry cited investigations and court rulings alleging that CUPP officials received Chinese government funding and cooperated with Chinese intelligence personnel in contacting current and retired military officers.

Liu also accused the CUPP of having extensive links to organized crime. According to Criminal Investigation Bureau statistics cited by the minister, since 2010 the party has been involved in 98 organized-crime cases involving 141 people, including attempted murder, extortion, unlawful restraint, assault, fraud, and drug offenses. Liu argued that the party is effectively a criminal organization operating under the guise of a political party and has threatened the existence of the Republic of China and Taiwan’s free and democratic constitutional order.

However, the case faces a potentially difficult path in the Constitutional Court. Under the Constitutional Litigation Act, a decision to dissolve a political party requires the approval of at least two-thirds of the Constitutional Court justices. With eight justices currently serving, six votes would be required. However, three justices have consistently declined to participate in rulings, leaving the current balance at 5–3 and making the ministry’s chances of securing the required votes appear slim.

Sources:
1. Tai Sounds, August 7, 2026
https://www.taisounds.com/news/content/71/281909
2. Central News Agency (Taiwan), July 30, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202607300378.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Canadian CSIS Warns Richmond Officials of Potential Chinese Interference in Municipal Election

Canada’s Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) reportedly held a closed-door briefing in July for Richmond, British Columbia, Mayor Malcolm Brodie and city councilors, warning that the municipal election scheduled for October 17 could face Chinese Communist Party (CCP) interference, including influence operations targeting the city’s Chinese Canadian community. According to The Bureau, the briefing was led by a senior CSIS regional official and relied primarily on previously public information, including cases discussed by the Hogue Commission on foreign interference.

CSIS reportedly warned that individuals with ties to the CCP could approach Richmond candidates during the campaign in an effort to influence the electoral process and undermine its integrity. While CSIS declined to confirm or deny the specific briefing, a spokesperson said recent amendments to the CSIS Act allow the agency to share information about national security threats with organizations beyond the federal government, including local governments, academia, businesses, and community groups.

The warning follows previous reports of Chinese interference in British Columbia elections. Former Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart and Port Coquitlam Mayor Brad West have said they received similar warnings from CSIS. A 2024 investigation by the Commissioner of Canada Elections also found evidence of foreign interference targeting the Chinese Canadian community during the 2021 federal election. The investigation found that former Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu became a target after supporting Uyghur human rights, Hong Kong democracy, and a foreign-agent registry, with Chinese consular officials and community organizations allegedly portraying him negatively to Chinese Canadian voters.

Source: Epoch Times, August 2, 2026
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/26/8/2/n14822025.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics