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Taiwan President Lai Ching-te Announces “National Security Action Plan to Safeguard the Democratic Taiwan”

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The Red Coup – China’s Hostile Takeover of Free-World Education

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Chinese-Language Reports on the CCP’s September 3 Military Parade

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Chinese Think Tanker: Unraveling the Philippines–U.S. Coordinated “South China Sea Discourse Trap”

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China Rapidly Expanding Nuclear Arsenal, Projected to Rival U.S. and Russia by 2030

On June 16, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its 2025 Yearbook. There are nine nuclear-armed countries in the world: United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Russia remains the world’s largest nuclear power in terms of total military stockpile, with 4,309 warheads. The United States ranks second with 3,700 warheads. China possesses at least 600 nuclear warheads, making it the world’s third-largest nuclear power.

Since 2023, China has been adding about 100 warheads annually, a pace far exceeding that of other countries. At this rate, China could possess 1,600 nuclear warheads by 2035.

The yearbook also noted that, as of January 2025, China had completed or nearly completed construction of approximately 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos across three major desert regions in northern China and three mountainous regions in eastern China. China’s ICBM arsenal buildup plan is to match that of Russia or the United States.

Source: Epoch Times, June 18, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/6/18/n14534239.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Chinese Companies Successfully Replace Western Firms in Russian Market

Chinese enterprises have successfully filled the void left by Western companies that exited the Russian market over the past three years, according to Sun Tianshu, Chairman of China Enterprise Development Silk Road Technology Development Co., Ltd.

Speaking at the third Trans-Baikal Foreign Economic Forum “New Horizons-2025” held in Chita from June 25-27, Sun highlighted the strategic transition occurring in Sino-Russian business relations. The forum serves as a regional platform for the Eastern Economic Forum.

According to a survey by Russian audit and consulting firm “Kept,” 62% of companies from “unfriendly countries” have withdrawn from the Russian market since the beginning of the special military operation through the end of 2024.

Sun noted that Chinese companies have effectively replaced these departing Western firms over the past two to three years. However, he emphasized that this substitution phase has now concluded, marking the beginning of a new era where Chinese enterprises are actively seeking fresh markets and customers within Russia.

“I believe the stage of Chinese companies replacing European and American companies in the Russian market has now passed. A new stage has begun, where Chinese enterprises are looking for new markets and customers in Russia. This is indeed a new challenge,” Sun explained.

The digital trade platform operated by his company has witnessed increased activity from Russian customers seeking to purchase goods directly from Chinese manufacturers during the first five months of 2025. The platform is now enhancing its functionality to facilitate easier access for Russian manufacturers to enter the Chinese market.

This development aligns with broader diplomatic efforts to strengthen bilateral ties. On June 20, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang addressed the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, calling for comprehensive enhancement of China-Russia relations across multiple dimensions, including trade, energy, agriculture, aerospace, and artificial intelligence cooperation.

Source: Sputnik News, June 26, 2025
https://sputniknews.cn/20250626/1066144552.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Lithuania Confirms All Chinese Diplomats Have Left Amid Ongoing Diplomatic Standoff

According to Lithuania’s national broadcaster LRT, the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry confirmed that no accredited Chinese diplomats remain at the Chinese Embassy in Lithuania. The last Chinese diplomat was denied entry at Vilnius Airport on May 18 due to visa issues and was deported to Istanbul. Lithuanian authorities stated that his diplomatic status had expired and he no longer had immunity.

The diplomatic freeze dates back to 2021 when Lithuania allowed Taiwan to open a “Taiwanese Representative Office” in Vilnius, angering Beijing. In response, China downgraded its embassy to a “representative office” and revoked the diplomatic status of Lithuanian diplomats in China, leading to their full withdrawal.

China later tried to send personnel under the downgraded mission, but Lithuania refused to grant accreditation. Some Chinese diplomats remained temporarily using Schengen visa-free access, but now, with all certifications expired, China has resorted to sending diplomats from third countries on short assignments.

Lithuania warned that any unnotified Chinese personnel may be declared “persona non grata.”

Source: Epoch Times, June 17, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/6/17/n14532979.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China to Send 600 Troops to Russia for Training on How to Counter Western Weapons

The Kyiv Post reported on June 24, citing sources from Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR), that Russia plans to arrange training for about 600 Chinese military personnel at Russian military facilities and bases this year. These Chinese personnel will receive training on how to counter Western weapons, covering areas such as tank operations, artillery, engineering, air defense, and drone warfare. The report did not specify whether the trainees would later join Russian combat units or if the training is purely for exchange purposes.

GUR sources said the Kremlin’s intention is to allow Chinese military personnel to learn from Russia’s combat experience in the Russia-Ukraine war, reflecting Russia’s desire to align with China in jointly confronting the West.

There have been reports and China provides substantial support to Russia on the Ukraine War. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated in May that although China had suspended the supply of drones to Kyiv and other European countries, it continued to provide related equipment to Russia. In mid-April, Zelenskyy also said Ukrainian intelligence showed that China was producing gunpowder, artillery shells, and other materials within Russian territory.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), June 27, 2025
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202506270053.aspx

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Global Times: China to Hold Large-Scale Military Parade on September 3

Chinese state media announced a military parade that would be held at Tiananmen Square on September 3.

Military expert Zhang Junshe told Huanqiu Times that the parade will clearly showcase the new structural layout of China’s military services and arms. This structure includes the Army, Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, as well as the newly organized Space Force, Cyberspace Force, Information Support Force, and Joint Logistics Support Force, all under the direct leadership of the Central Military Commission (CMC). Zhang noted that this means the Information Support Force, Space Force, and Cyberspace Force will make their first public appearance in a military parade.

The parade will also present the modernized image of China’s “three-pronged” armed forces, which consist of the PLA, the Chinese People’s Armed Police Force, and the militia.

Another highlight of the parade will be the equipment formations showcasing the PLA’s latest advancements. These will include new combat forces featuring unmanned intelligent systems, underwater warfare equipment, cyber warfare tools, and hypersonic weapons.

Source: Huanqiu Times, June 24, 2025
https://hqtime.huanqiu.com/article/4NDyhz4kpCA

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

UDN: FedEx’s Worsened China-U.S. Air Routes Dragged Down Its Financial Outlook

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that FedEx just announced its last quarter’s performance. However, unusually, the quarterly report did not provide full-year financial forecasts. The predicted profits for this quarter are lower than market expectations, indicating that weak demand and uncertainty in global trade are unlikely to ease in the short term. After the financial report was released, FedEx’s stock price plummeted more than five percent.

The global logistics giant explained that the lack of forecast is due to “an uncertain global demand environment.” The company’s China-U.S. routes, which are its most profitable, had “deteriorated sharply” in May. Cargo volumes are expected to remain under pressure. President Trump’s trade policies continue to limit the ability of corporate executives to predict the business outlook. The lack of visibility is particularly challenging for FedEx, whose customers span a wide range of industries, from manufacturing to consumer products.

However, there are signs that the company’s long-running push to cut costs and consolidate its ground and air networks is paying off. FedEx cut $2.2 billion in costs in its most recent fiscal year and expects to save another $1 billion this year.

Source: UDN, June 25, 2025
https://money.udn.com/money/story/5599/8829262

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

China’s Plan to Invest $400 Billion in Iran Uncertain Following Recent Iranian Military Conflict with Israel and the US

Taiwanese media outlet Liberty Times reported that China’s plan to invest $400 billion in Iran may be in jeopardy following recent developments in the Iran-Israel conflict as well as the recent U.S. Air Force strikes against sites linked to Iran’s nuclear program.

In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year strategic agreement, with China pledging major investments in exchange for stable, low-cost oil. However, geopolitical tensions and financial strains have already slowed progress, and recent developments in Iran mean the future of China’s infrastructure projects in the region is now uncertain.

Key Chinese investments at risk include:

  • Oil fields: Over $30 billion invested in North Azadegan, Yadavaran (49 percent Sinopec stake), and Rainbow (40 percent CNOOC stake).
  • China-Iran International Railway: Launched in May 2025, from China’s Xi’an city to Iran’s Apolin Dry Port via Central Asia.
  • Major rail projects: Tehran-Hamadan-Sanandaj, Shiraz-Bushehr, and Kermanshah-Khosravi, totaling over 13 billion RMB (US$1.8 billion).
  • Tehran North Freeway: $257 million investment, opened in 2020.
  • Tehran Imam Khomeini Airport expansion: $2.7 billion project, now stalled after Israel’s June 2025 airstrike.
  • Ports: Chinese-supported upgrades at Chabahar and Bandar Abbas.

Source: Liberty Times (Taiwan), June 23, 2025
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/5083054

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Czech Intelligence: China Was Responsible for Near Miss Car Accident Involving Taiwan’s Vice President in Prague

Czech public radio iROZHLAS reported on June 25 that Czech intelligence concluded the near-collision involving Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s motorcade during her 2024 visit to Prague was a deliberate operation orchestrated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) embassy, not an accident.

In March 2024, Hsiao visited Prague as Taiwan’s Vice President-elect, sparking Beijing’s displeasure. A Chinese embassy military attaché reportedly tailed her convoy, ran a red light, and nearly caused a crash. Czech Military Intelligence Director Petr Bartovský confirmed Beijing’s intent was to intimidate Hsiao and that China had indeed prepared for such provocative action; they didn’t execute it since Czech security forces were nearby.

The operation was planned by the Chinese embassy’s military section – three of its diplomats started planning before Hsiao’s arrival.

On June 27, 2025, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun denied any wrongdoing during a press conference. He called Hsiao a “Taiwan independence” separatist and said “China urges the relevant parties not to be manipulated by ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces, not to stir up trouble or maliciously hype this incident to damage bilateral relations.”

Sources:
1. Epoch Times, June 27, 2025
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/25/6/26/n14539561.htm
2. China’s Embassy at the U.S. website, June 27, 2025
http://us.china-embassy.gov.cn/lcbt/wjbfyrbt/202506/t20250627_11660512.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend