Geo-Strategic Trend - 4. page

German journalist Jürgen Kremb released a research report in Taipei on Monday estimating that China has planted between 50,000 and 100,000 intelligence assets in Taiwan—far exceeding previous official and expert estimates. Kremb, who spent years reporting from Beijing for the Frankfurter Rundschau and Der Spiegel and authored a book on Wei Jingsheng, is currently a visiting scholar in Taiwan researching Chinese intelligence operations. His report, titled “War of Spies: How Chinese Intelligence Agencies Infiltrate Taiwan—With Implications for Europe,” was unveiled at Monday’s presentation.

While acknowledging the figure is difficult to verify, Kremb argued Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, which has estimated roughly 5,000 agents, has significantly undercounted the threat. His broader definition of “spies” includes deployed agents, local informants, and ordinary Taiwanese willing to provide intelligence under certain circumstances—comparable to Russia’s “throwaway agents.”

The report highlights Beijing’s use of economic dependency as a pressure tool, often through Taiwanese businesspeople, and notes a troubling rise in espionage cases within Taiwan’s military, frequently targeting information on U.S. weapons systems. Recruitment often begins innocuously via Telegram or LinkedIn before escalating through bribery or exploitation of personal vulnerabilities. Citing mainland sources, the report claims 180,000 Chinese personnel work on Taiwan-related intelligence across agencies including the United Front Work Department and Ministry of State Security.

Kremb also disclosed being surveilled by a suspected Chinese agent during a trip to Alishan last June. A woman with a northern Chinese accent, claiming to live in Denmark, aroused his suspicion; he later spotted her making a phone call, reminiscent of past interrogation experiences. He reported the incident to Taiwan’s Investigation Bureau, which confirmed her identity via surveillance footage—though she had already left Taiwan.

Source: Radio Free Asia, September 15, 2026
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/zhengzhi/2026/09/15/china-espionage-jurgenkremb/

A Taiwanese scholar has warned that artificial intelligence could hand Beijing control over how the Chinese language is interpreted worldwide. Speaking at a seminar on resistance in Taipei on Saturday, Hung Tzu-wei, a research fellow at Academia Sinica’s Institute of European and American Studies, said China is deliberately trying to monopolize global Chinese-language interpretive authority by supplying vast quantities of simplified-Chinese data. He argued this amounts to a form of cognitive warfare that produces a new kind of “epistemic injustice.”

Hung said Taiwan’s government should scrap its policy of privileging Mandarin, which he said has no legal basis according to a Control Yuan report, and that replacing “Huayu” with Taiwanese-language writing is the future trend. He noted that Taiwan initially did not speak Mandarin and that martial-law-era ethnic framing produced flawed language revitalization policy. Although Taiwan has its own language models, he argued that datasets nobody uses have no future. He pointed to Ukraine, where the share of Ukrainian speakers rose after the Russian invasion.

Hung also distinguished between China’s short-term interference, which typically targets elections and draws a stronger government response, and long-term cultural infiltration, which could shape children’s future ideologies.

Other speakers addressed the ethics of resistance. Philosopher Wu Feng-wei, citing Kant, argued that citizens of an invaded country have a duty to resist, provided there are shared principles of justice, an immediate external threat, and a population that shares in the community’s benefits. Historian Chen Chun-kai stressed vigilance against online troll armies and disinformation.

Hung added that a recent Academia Sinica survey found that people who value democracy are not necessarily willing to defend Taiwan, whereas those with stronger Taiwanese identity are more willing to resist China.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), September 19, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202609190230.aspx

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro publicly rebuked a Chinese delegate during the Seoul Defense Dialogue on September 8, after being handed a note challenging the 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling while he was speaking on stage.

According to The Manila Times, an unidentified Chinese representative passed Teodoro a note during the plenary session asserting that the 2016 ruling “violates fundamental principles of international law” and calling it “illegal, null, and void.”

The Philippines brought its South China Sea dispute with China to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2013. In July 2016, the tribunal ruled that China’s nine-dash line (now ten-dash line) had no basis under international law, and that the Philippines was entitled to exclusive rights over resources in its exclusive economic zone. China has never accepted or recognized the ruling.

Responding on stage, Teodoro said that if the note reflected China’s official position, it showed disrespect not only for international law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, but also for South Korea as host and for the basic courtesy owed to other participants. He questioned whether the note was an appropriate document to hand him while he was mid-session answering questions.

Teodoro added that China should show “basic courtesy and decorum,” using a Filipino phrase to tell Beijing to have some manners, some sense of shame. His remarks drew applause from the audience.

He went on to reaffirm that the Philippines would not compromise on territorial integrity and sovereignty, would resist aggression from any state, and would continue defending international law while modernizing its military and deepening defense partnerships with like-minded countries.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), September 9, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202609090002.aspx

Phoenix published a commentary on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to make China-Russia visa-free travel permanent.

On August 31, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek, Putin told Xi Jinping that if Beijing considered it feasible and beneficial, the two sides were willing to work toward making visa-free travel permanent. China did not immediately accept or reject the proposal. On September 1, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said mutual visa-free travel “fully reflects” the two countries’ “high level of strategic mutual trust” and would further facilitate people-to-people exchanges and cooperation. The wording suggests that Beijing is receptive to the proposal, although it stopped short of formally agreeing.

The two countries currently have a mutual visa-free arrangement in place through December 31, 2027. The policy has already boosted cross-border travel. In the first half of 2026, about 380,600 Chinese citizens traveled to Russia, up 19.7 percent year-on-year, while 396,000 Russians visited China, up 62.4 percent. Russia has become China’s second-largest source of foreign tourists. The development also reflects China’s broader visa strategy: by 2026, Beijing had extended unilateral visa-free access to 50 countries and established full mutual visa exemption with 29 countries. Unlike many of these arrangements, the China-Russia agreement is based on reciprocity, giving it added political significance.

The proposal also has significant economic and geopolitical implications. China-Russia trade reached $227.9 billion in 2025 and about $134.2 billion in the first half of 2026. As cooperation expands into technology, artificial intelligence, and digital innovation, easier cross-border travel could facilitate deeper business and professional ties. At the same time, with the Ukraine war entering its fifth year and Western sanctions continuing to constrain Russia, Moscow’s economic “pivot to the East” has increased its dependence on China.

Beijing’s response suggests that the proposal is under consideration. A future Xi-Putin meeting could produce a further extension of the current arrangement—or eventually eliminate its expiration date altogether.

Source: Phoenix, September 3, 2026
https://h5.ifeng.com/c/vivo/v002TCf5YDudeUiMHbLlVhXcWjGH0–d2QUXNs-_H3MuUmncw__