Geo-Strategic Trend - 4. page

Growing instability in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran is raising serious concerns about the impact on China’s energy security and broader geopolitical ambitions, according to analysts in Hong Kong.

Writing in Ming Pao, Hong Kong analyst and former editor-in-chief of the Hong Kong Economic Journal Chen Jingxiang noted that China is Iran’s largest oil customer, purchasing more than 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports. Since the outbreak of hostilities, Iran has announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint through which approximately one-third of China’s crude oil supply passes. A sustained closure of this vital energy corridor could significantly disrupt China’s energy supply.

Beyond energy, Iran holds a key strategic position in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. A cooperation agreement signed between the two countries in 2016 deepened collaboration in transportation, railways, and energy. The outbreak of conflict now threatens to seriously undermine China’s investments and interests in Iran.

Iran is also an important political ally of China. Tehran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — a China-led bloc — in 2023, with Chinese state media at the time hailing the move as an opportunity for Iran to better realize its geoeconomic potential. China’s broader circle of strategic partners includes Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan.

The article argues that U.S. actions targeting Venezuela and Iran — both among China’s top oil suppliers — as well as Washington’s intervention in Panama Canal port operations, are part of a coherent strategy aimed at weakening China’s global influence.

Despite President Trump’s frequent public praise of Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his characterization of Xi as a “good friend,” the analyst contends that Washington’s actual moves are consistently aimed at undermining Beijing. China, the article concludes, should harbor no excessive expectations for the Trump-Xi summit scheduled later this month.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 4, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202603040045.aspx

Hu Xijin, formal chief editor of China’s state-run media Global Times, published an editorial
article following a court ruling of Netherlands on February 11, ordering a formal investigation
into the socalled “mismanagement” at Nexperia. Below is an excerpt of the article:

“A court of appeal in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, issued a ruling ordering a formal
investigation into the socalled “mismanagement” at Nexperia. The ruling also upholds the
Dutch government’s earlier decision to suspend the company’s Chinese CEO, Zhang Xuezheng,
and allows the European interim management team to remain in place. This is undoubtedly a
political ruling—using the law as a tool to legitimize what amounts to a ‘coup’ by the Dutch
government against Nexperia.

“The court stated that it had ‘sufficient grounds’ to question Nexperia’s policies and business
conduct, claiming there were ‘indications’ that CEO Zhang had ‘unilaterally changed the
company’s strategy’ in response to U.S. exportcontrol pressures. According to the court, under
Wingtech’s control, there were signs that Nexperia failed to comply with agreements made
with the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and took steps to marginalize or dismiss European
managers.

“Wingtech Technology issued a statement expressing ‘extreme disappointment and strong
dissatisfaction’ with the ruling, emphasizing that it would continue to defend its rights through
all legal means.

“In recent months, many European countries and Canada have accelerated commercial
engagement with China, with visiting Western leaders signing trade agreements to stabilize and
expand economic ties. The U.S., after intense friction last year, has also entered a trade truce
with China and adjusted its strategy. However, the Dutch ruling pushes the Netherlands back
into confrontation with China, preventing the ‘Nexperia turmoil’ from settling. With several
Chinahawk politicians entering the new Dutch cabinet, the ruling is seen as a signal that the
Netherlands will continue its irrational China policy.”

The article argues that the Dutch government appears confused about its own interests and
how to defend them. “China’s scale is not in the same league as the Netherlands, and we have
experienced and seen far more. When dealing with the Netherlands, this ‘little bandit’ and
‘little bully,’ our capability and endurance are destined to be inexhaustible.” “The Netherlands,
will have to pay a price for its action.”

Source: Sina, February 12, 2026
https://www.sina.cn/news/detail/5265619327918245.html

China’s Ministry of Commerce recently announced it is adding 20 entities involved in enhancing Japan’s military capabilities to its export control list, while placing another 20 Japanese entities on a watch list for failing to verify the end users and end uses of dual-use goods. Beijing framed the move as a matter of national security, non-proliferation obligations, and a direct response to what it describes as Japan’s accelerating “re-militarization.”

China argues that under the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation, and Japan’s Instrument of Surrender, Japan is legally prohibited from rearming. Yet major Japanese defense contractors — Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, IHI Corporation, and Kawasaki Heavy Industries — have continued producing warships, fighter jets, and missiles. China specifically cites Mitsubishi’s involvement in developing hypersonic glide weapons and shipbuilding contracts that it claims threaten stability in the East and South China Seas.

The article points to Japan’s rapid defense spending growth as evidence of a deepening military-industrial complex. Defense budgets have risen for 14 consecutive fiscal years from 2012 to 2026, more than doubling since 2022. Stock prices of major defense firms have surged dramatically since November 2022 — Mitsubishi Heavy Industries by over 650 percent, IHI by over 480 percent, and Kawasaki Heavy Industries by over 280 percent — even as Japan’s broader manufacturing sector grew at less than 1 percent annually over the same period.

Under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the article claims, remilitarization has accelerated further, with plans for large-scale bond issuance and a special defense income tax to fund military expenditures, alongside the establishment of a national intelligence agency this year.

The piece also raises alarm over Japan’s nuclear ambitions, noting that Japan had stockpiled 44.4 tons of separated plutonium as of end-2024 — far exceeding civilian energy needs — and possesses the full technical infrastructure to produce weapons-grade material. China warns that if Japan crosses the nuclear threshold, the global non-proliferation framework would face a severe blow. The article concludes that China’s export controls are a lawful and necessary step to prevent militarism’s resurgence and to uphold the postwar international order.

Source: People’s Daily, February 28, 2026
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/pc/content/202602/28/content_30142715.html

A report by Le Monde, filed from Beijing, details how China is using subsidized travel and youth exchange programs as a soft power tool to reshape how young Taiwanese perceive the mainland — with mixed results.

The article follows two Taiwanese university students, referred to by pseudonyms Mei and Lian, who traveled to China in January through an association offering heavily discounted trips specifically designed for Taiwanese youth. The pair paid only for their round-trip airfare plus a registration fee equivalent to roughly 100 euros (approximately $110 USD, or NT$3,700), with the remainder covered by subsidies from the Chinese government and provincial authorities — the same provincial bodies that house so-called “united front” departments tasked with cultivating support for Beijing’s agenda.

Over about ten days, the two visited Hangzhou — home to AI firms DeepSeek and Unitree, as well as Alibaba’s headquarters — before traveling to the Changbai Mountain region for snow scenery and then Harbin for its winter festival. Mei noted that China seemed more advanced than Taiwan in some respects, pointing to hotel robots that could navigate elevators and hallways to deliver food orders.

During the trip, the organizing association arranged meetings with Chinese peers of similar age. These individuals avoided aggressive political messaging and largely steered clear of direct discussions about unification — instead encouraging Mei and Lian to post photos of places they found beautiful or impressive on social media. With only around 1,000 followers each, the two were seen as authentic, unsponsored voices rather than obvious influencers.

The article concludes that the initiative was only partially successful. Both women came away impressed by China’s modernity, infrastructure, and scenery, but Mei’s sense of Taiwanese identity remained intact. “We want to keep our democracy,” she said. Her mother, for her part, refused to speak to her for two months after learning of the trip.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), February 26, 2026
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202602260307.aspx

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino has ordered a temporary takeover of two ports operated in Panama by a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Holdings. Last month, the Panamanian Constitutional Court ruled CK Hutchison’s port concession contracts invalid.

Mulino said in a statement that the management and operation of the two ports located in the strategic Panama Canal have now been transferred to the National Maritime Authority in order to “ensure the ports operate continuously, safely and efficiently.” He stated that the takeover applies to movable equipment within the port and “does not mean a loss of ownership.” He indicated that once the cause of the takeover ceases to exist, the government will return the assets, including the cranes, to their rightful owners. Panama will pay appropriate compensation unless the equipment is sold to a new buyer.

CK Hutchison’s subsidiary in Panama stated that the takeover was illegal. CK Hutchison Holdings is a conglomerate founded by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing. In January, Panama’s Supreme Court revoked CK Hutchison’s port operating concession. The ruling was praised by Washington but drew criticism from Beijing.

Source: UDN, February 24, 2026
https://udn.com/news/story/6809/9341089

Zimbabwe, Africa’s largest lithium producer with reserves among the world’s highest, has announced an immediate and indefinite ban on all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate. The ban, declared by the country’s Ministry of Mines on Wednesday, February 26, takes effect ten months ahead of the previously scheduled January 2027 deadline. Zimbabwe had already banned raw ore exports in 2022, and the new measure now extends that restriction to lithium concentrate as well.

The policy reflects a broader ambition to refine lithium domestically, increase the mineral’s added value, generate greater government revenue, and create local jobs. This approach is gaining traction across Africa, with numerous countries at February’s Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town expressing a desire to capture more economic benefit from their mineral wealth, which is critical to the global energy transition.

Several Chinese-backed companies are already responding. Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe, majority-owned by China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, is investing $400 million to build a lithium refinery expected to begin production within weeks, making it Africa’s first facility producing lithium sulfate. Zimbabwe’s state-backed Mutapa Energy Minerals plans to begin construction of a similar plant by mid-June, backed by $270 million in Chinese funding, with an annual capacity to process 600,000 tonnes of raw ore. Meanwhile, Sinomine Resources Group, owner of Zimbabwe’s largest lithium mine, Bikita Minerals, is conducting feasibility studies for a $500 million lithium sulfate plant it hopes to build in phases starting December.

Despite the optimism, critics argue the government is moving too slowly and lacks adequate oversight of Chinese-controlled mines, making it difficult to accurately track export volumes. Some economists urge Zimbabwe to build a complete value chain from mine to finished product and to follow the examples of Norway, Botswana, and Kuwait in implementing strategic, forward-looking resource policies.

Source: Radio France International, February 26, 2026
https://rfi.my/CTiE

A bomb threat targeting the official residence of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was triggered by written warnings directed at Shen Yun Performing Arts, a dance and music troupe banned in China.

According to emails obtained by local Australian media and the BBC, Shen Yun performers received threats demanding they cancel their upcoming shows in Australia, or explosives would be detonated at The Lodge, the Prime Minister’s official residence in Canberra. One email, written in Chinese, claimed that large quantities of nitroglycerin had been placed around the property, warning: “If you insist on performing, The Lodge will be reduced to rubble and blood will flow like a river.”

Albanese was evacuated from the residence at 6:00 PM local time on Tuesday, February 24, and relocated for several hours. Authorities confirmed they responded to an “alleged security incident” at The Lodge but said “no suspicious items were found.” The Australian Federal Police declined to comment on the specific emails.

Shen Yun, founded by the Falun Gong spiritual movement — which has been banned in China since 1999 — said it would proceed with its Australian performances as scheduled and urged the Australian government to conduct a thorough investigation. The group also noted it had faced dozens of threats during global performances over the past two years.

The incident follows a similar threat in the United States before, which led to the evacuation of the Kennedy Center in Washington D.C., also reportedly targeting a Shen Yun performance.

On Wednesday morning, Albanese posted on social media thanking police and well-wishers, sharing a photo of his dog Toto at the door, writing: “Toto is on guard, but all is well.”

Source: BBC Chinese, February 26, 2026
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/articles/c8egxg8p5g6o/simp