Epoch Times analyzed the official data the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) published on the coronavirus infection and on the hospitalized patients in Wuhan. It found that there are several holes in the CCP numbers.

1. Confirmed Infected Count = Hospitalized Count

On April 16, the CCP readjusted the Wuhan infection number to 50,333 and the death toll to 3,869.

On April 26, the Wuhan Health Commission announced that “the number of coronavirus infected patients staying in hospital became 0… The cumulative count of patients hospitalized is 50,333.”

This means the all confirmed infected patients are hospitalized, with a 100 percent hospitalization rate.

Taking New York to compare. By April 30, there were 159,865 confirmed cases, among which 41,316 were hospitalized. The hospitalization ratio is 25.84 percent of the confirmed patients.

The Wuhan Health Commission also stated that “the peak count of hospitalized patients was on February 18; it reached 38,020.” On February 18, Wuhan also announced 38,020 confirmed cases. Again, a 100 percent hospitalization rate.

2. Holes in Hospitalization Count

On January 28, the Wuhan Health Commission website said, “From January 22 to January 27, 75,221 people with a fever visited the hospital.” The hospital beds usage report that the Wuhan Health Commission released on February 1 showed this number “beds used: 6,808.” This means that only 9 percent of the 75,221 people who had a fever were hospitalized and thus counted in the CCP’s infection count. However, those 75,221 people were likely to be infected with the coronavirus.

On February 18, the Wuhan Health Commission stated 38,020 people were hospitalized. Its websites announced 18,393 hospital beds were occupied on the same day. If 38,020 were hospitalized, where did the other 19,627 (= 38,020 – 18,393) patients go?

The modular hospitals could hold patients. The Wuhan Health Commission website stated, “On March 10, all 16 modular hospitals in Wuhan were closed. They have treated a total of 12,000 patients with mild infection symptoms.” On February 20, the website of Changjiang Daily, a newspaper under the Wuhan Party Committee, mentioned “by February 20, eight modular hospitals released a total of 616 recovered patients.” So on February 18, there were likely only eight modular hospitals in operation. Since 16 modular hospitals treated 12,000 patients, the 8 modular hospitals in operation then might treated 6,000 patients.

Still, there are 13,627 (= 38,020 – 18,393 – 6,000) patients that the government claimed to be hospitalized but could not be matched to any hospital beds. Had they died in the hospital and thus no longer needed beds?

3. Severe Cases vs. Mild Cases

The modular hospitals were to treat the patients with mild cases. The Wuhan Health Commission said the modular hospitals handled 12,000 mild cases and a total of 46,464 patients were cured in hospitals. That means 34,464 (= 46,464 – 12,000) patients were in the regular hospitals. If the majority of the 34,464 patients were severe cases (since they were not at the modular hospitals), it would mean there were many more severe cases than mild cases, or it would mean many mild cases were simply not counted by the government.

4. Medical Staff Headcounts

On February 6, the Wuhan Health Commission mentioned “80,000 healthcare staff workers were at the front line of the fight against the coronavirus.” This would mean Wuhan has about 80,000 medical staff members.

On March 26, , the Wuhan Health Commission website stated, “By March 24, 141 medical teams came to support Wuhan, with 14,649 medical staff, returned to their home cities. Still 139 teams with 16,558 medical staff members remain in Wuhan.” That means 31,207 (=14,469 + 16,558) medical staffs came from other cities to support Wuhan.

State Council mentioned that “over 40,000 medical support personnel came to Wuhan, with 28,600 nurses, accounting for 68 percent of the group.” That will give 42,059 (= 28,600 / 68%) medical staffs coming from other cities to Wuhan.

If we take 80,000 of Wuhan’s own medical staff members and 40,000 supporting staff members from other cities, that is over 120,000 on the medical staff. {Editor’s note: Epoch Times didn’t mention this point in its writing: We know some of Wuhan’s medical staff were infected. Even if half of the population was infected, that means still 40,000 Wuhan medical staff members and 40,000 supporting staff members were working there. With 80,000 medical staff members on board, were they all only treating the 50,333 infected patients that the CCP claimed on April 26?}

Related postings on Chinascope:

• Infection Count: AEI: 2.9 Million Chinese Might Have Been Infected with Coronavirus
• Infection Count: Trump Administration Official: China’s Real Count Could Be 50 Times Bigger
• Infection Count: 60 Percent Hidden Infection Cases in Wuhan Are Not Reported
• Infection Count: Changjiang Daily Reported a Coronavirus Case on a Day That the Government Reported Zero
• Infection Count: On February 13, Caixin Questioned Wuhan Infection Number

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Epoch Times analyzed the official data that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) published on the coronavirus infection and virus testing in Wuhan from January to March. It showed that the Wuhan government was severely behind in testing to confirm infections. This is likely to indicate that many infections probably went unconfirmed (as suspected cases) or unidentified (as there was nothing recorded at all).

Epoch Times reported the following:

On January 27, Wuhan announced that 892 cases were newly confirmed on that day and a total of 1,590 cumulative cases were confirmed. On January 29, the Wuhan Health Commission website stated, “From January 23 to January 27, (we) have tested a total of 4,086 samples among which 712 were positive.” This leads to two questions:

• Since China had very a rigid rule on confirming the coronavirus infection and the nucleic acid testing is a mandatory step, how did Wuhan confirm the 1,590 infection cases while only 712 samples tested positive?
• How could Wuhan confirm 892 cases alone on January 27, which is even more than the 712 positive tests (from January 23 to January 27)?

On January 29, the Wuhan Health Commission website said, “Due to the high pathogenicity of the virus, researchers need to go through a gradual process to familiarize themselves with the testing process, so they will not test 2,000 samples per day from the beginning, but rather (they will start low and) gradually increase the number.” This means that though the government had the ability to test 2,000 samples, they did not do that many then.

On January 28, the Wuhan Health Commission website said, “Visits of fever patients have been increasing daily. The peak is over 15,000 people.” Even if Wuhan tested 2,000 samples, they were still be severely below the 15,000 fever patients.

On January 28, the Wuhan Health Commission website said, “From January 22 to January 27, a total of 75,221 people came to be checked for fever.” Wuhan tested only 4,086 samples during that period.

On March 3, the Wuhan Health Commission website said, “Nucleic acid tests were given to 18,127 people on the day of March 1. In the past three days, Wuhan conducted an average of 20,466 tests per day. (Regular) hospitals and modular hospitals mainly used the test for existing patients, not to confirm new cases.” This means it is likely that the government did more than 10,000 tests on confirmed patients and less than 10,000 tests were used to test new cases per day.

{Editor’s note: Epoch Times didn’t mention this point in its writing, but one may ask, if Wuhan did over 10,000 tests on confirmed patients each day and if it tested each patient twice in the duration of the treatment, that would mean the government would have tested 50,000 confirmed patients in 10 days, and 150,000 confirmed patients in 30 days.}

On March 26, the Wuhan Health Commission website said, “The whole city conducted nucleic acid tests on 9,844 people on March 24.” It is still less than 10,000 tests per day.

Therefore, the city has done less than 10,000 tests for new infection cases per day. Even if the city did 10,000 tests every day from January 23 to March 23, it would have only tested 600,000 people. For a city of 15 million people, that’s 4 percent of the population.

Thus, the testing is significantly insufficient.

Related postings on Chinascope:

• Lack of Action: National Health Commission Delayed 15 Days to Share the Coronavirus Information
• Lack of Action: Official Documents in Early January Showed the Government Was Aware of the “SARS-Like” Pneumonia
• Lack of Action: Both Central and Local Government Didn’t Do Enough
• Lack of Action: “Voice of China” Internally Reported Up About Coronavirus on Jan 1

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For several days, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) controlled mouthpieces have been using many curse words to denounce U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo. {Editor’s note: Pompeo announced publicly that there was “enormous evidence’ (from the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance) that the Coronavirus originated in a Wuhan lab}

#1: “[International Sharp Commentary] Pompeo, Who Is Spreading a ‘Political Virus,’ Is Turning Himself into an Enemy of the Human Race” – on April 27 (China Central Television (CCTV))

Since the pandemic outbreak, Pompeo, as the chief diplomat of the United States, is just like an “invisible man” and has done nothing for the prevention and control of the outbreak. On the other hand, he has been most active and fierce in pouring dirty water onto China and has regarded it as his “daily homework.”

Obviously, Pompeo’s actions have made the world clear: the epidemic is not a painful event in his eyes, and the life and death of the American people are irrelevant to him; his “favorite” job is “only to fulfill political self-interest and pursue geopolitics.”

To achieve his goal, Pompeo has created rumors and slurs to an extreme, obviously against rational and against human nature. One cannot help wondering whether he has lost his mind.

It seems that to a person like Pompeo, facts and truths do not exist. However, the louder his clamor, the more obvious his purpose to shirk responsibilities and hide his evil intentions. Facing the pandemic, Pompeo has been going further and further on the road of political investment, trying to use his poor performance to gain support from the conservative forces and help him achieve his personal ambitions towards the height of power.

Therefore, when it comes to accountability, Pompeo is one of the most to be blamed. As the chief diplomat of the United States, he did not show a little bit of professional integrity and responsibility in the face of the crisis. Instead, he continued to spread the “political virus,” provoke alienation, play tricks, continue to trample on the bottom line of human morality, and constantly interfere with international public health cooperation. He has become a stumbling block for all humanity to unite against the pandemic and has become an accomplice to the virus.

Lies and defamation cannot make up for lost time, cannot save lives on the verge of death, nor can they make the United States “great again.” Pompeo should know that the enemy of the United States is the virus, not China. Any act that undermines unity and undermines mutual trust will only exacerbate the crisis, weaken global synergy, and ultimately damage the US’s own interests. If Pompeo stands alone and continues to put political self-interest above public interests, then he will be abandoned by the American people and will remain in the hall of the infamous in the history of American diplomacy.

#2: “[Video] International Sharp Commentary: On April 28, Pompeo, Who Bears the ‘Four Sins’ Broke Through the Bottom Line of Being a Human”  (CCTV)

Sharp commentary pointed out that no Secretary of State in the United States’ history has done something like Pompeo to bring the “lying, deceiving, and stealing” practice from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to the American diplomacy circle, and thus dramatically ruined the U.S.’ reputation. Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, Pompeo’s actions have broken through the bottom line of being a man.

Pompeo’s actions have been distrustful to the American people, overdrawn American diplomatic credibility, and harmed global anti-pandemic cooperation, which has become a huge shame and misfortune for the United States.

#3: “[International Sharp Commentary] Pompeo Who Is Trying to Coerce the World Health Organization (WHO) Is Challenging the Whole World” – on April 30 (CCTV)

After the outbreak, Pompeo stubbornly placed political prejudice and cold war thinking above professionalism, ignored the WHO’s warnings, distorted WHO’s international experience in pandemic prevention and control, and paralyzed and misled the American people. After the country’s pandemic situation became out of control, he came back to slam on the WHO, pushing the United States to rush along the dead end of unilateral policy.

This actually answers the international community’s questions to a certain extent: why does the world ’s only superpower have the highest number of diagnoses and deaths of the novel coronavirus in the world? It is precisely the unscrupulous politicians such as Pompeo who have seriously hindered the utilization of American resources and scientific and technological capabilities, and eventually caused the disaster. Faced with the death of so many innocent lives in the U.S., will cold-hearted Pompeo ever feel guilty?

#4: “How Long Will Such a Bad Performance Last? (by Zhongsheng, pen name for People’s Daily Editorial Commentary)” on April 30 (People’s Daily)

Ignoring the axioms, creating rumors, and provoking opposition have always been the marks that Pompeo stamped on American diplomacy.

However, Pompeo’s poor performance is not as simple as a game after all. The number one U.S. diplomat has expressed a series of lies and hurtful words, leaving a deep scar on the current international anti-pandemic cooperation.

As far as Sino-U.S. relations are concerned, Pompeo has vigorously hindered the cooperation in anti-pandemic cooperation between the two sides. People should apply special vigilance to his intensified shady mentality of confrontation strategy against China. In fact, many international observers have pointed out that since the United States has focused its national security strategy almost exclusively on the competition of major powers, the healthy and stable development of the international order is facing severe challenges.

No one knows how long Pompeo’s current “toxic” diplomatic style will last. People with clear minds are warning that the enemy of the United States is the virus, and blindly attacking and discrediting other countries will only cause more people to lose their lives. The only right way is to stop causing trouble and interference to the global solidarity, and effectively strengthen cooperation with other countries in the fight against the pandemic. That is to be responsible to the American people and to the people around the world.

Related postings on Chinascope:

• Diplomacy: France Called in China Ambassador Because of Chinese Embassy’s Remarks
• Diplomacy: Germany Refused to Chinese Diplomats Lobby Request to Praise China
• Diplomacy: China Asked Wisconsin Senator for Praise, But Got Condemnation in Return
• Diplomacy: CCP Changed to Hawk Style in Its Diplomacy
• Diplomacy: Pompeo “Loots a Burning House”

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On May 1, Sky News interviewed the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) representative in China Dr. Gauden Galea.

Dr. Galea said, “We know that a national investigation (in China) is happening but at this stage we have not been invited to join.” “WHO has made requests of the health commission and of the authorities,” but they were rejected. “The origins of the virus are very important. The animal-human interface is extremely important and needs to be studied. The priority is we need to know as much as possible to prevent a reoccurrence.”

Sky News asked whether there was a good reason for Beijing not to include the WHO. Dr. Galea replied, “From our point of view, no.”

Related postings on Chinascope:

• Hiding Information: Inner Mongolia Document Shows China Developed Coronavirus Treatment Plan and Guidance before January 15
• Hiding Information: Inner Mongolia Health Commission Trained People in January
• Hiding Information: Document Showed the CCP Hid Info for the Critical Six Days in Virus Containment
• Hiding Information: Wuhan Central Hospital Did Not Allow Staffs to Talk About Coronavirus
• Hiding Information: Wuhan Newspaper Said Doctor Reported Infection Cases in December and Authorities Took Actions Immediately

Source: Sky News, May 1, 2020
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-who-not-invited-to-join-chinas-covid-19-investigations-11981193

As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hides the infection and death count of the coronavirus in China, researchers are trying to estimate the actual number. Yaxue Cao, an editor of the democracy promotion media China Change, estimated the total infection cases in Wuhan to be between 400,000 and 600,000, and the death toll to be between 22,000 and 30,000.

1. Death Toll

On March 23, the second largest crematorium in Wuhan, the Wuchang Funeral Home, announced that, “The funeral home will distribute 500 urns per day, and will try to distribute all of them before the Tomb Sweeping Day” (the traditional Chinese holiday to commemorate the dead, also known as Qingming), which was April 4 this year. In other words, the Wuchang Funeral Home was to distribute approximately 6,000 urns in the 12 days leading up to April 4:

500 x 12 = 6,000

The Wuchang Funeral Home has 15 cremation furnaces; each furnace would have burned 400 bodies during the 60 days. There have been anecdotal reports of some furnaces being out of order before or during this period. Suppose 8 furnaces (about 10%) were not working. The adjusted number of cremations for the remaining 76 furnaces would be:

400*76 = 30,400

According to the city’s official statistics, in 2018, the number of Wuhan’s natural deaths was 47,900, averaging 131 deaths per day in the city. Based on this rate, about 7,860 people died of causes other than coronavirus infection during the 60 days:

130*60 = 7,860

During the 60 days from January 23 to March 23, approximately 22,540 people died from the coronavirus infection:

30,400 – 7,860 = 22,540

An estimate of the death toll from December 1 to January 22 could be a few hundred or a few thousand, and we just don’t know. So the total death toll in Wuhan is in the range of 22,000 to 30,000.

2. Infection Count

a) Using Wuhan’s Official Death Rate:

Caixin’s Domestic Observation of Covid-19 (境内疫情观察) updates, among other data, the death rate of cities in Hubei Province.  As of March 23, the death rate was 5 percent in Wuhan based on statistics posted by the National Health Commission and the local health commissions. If this rate is correct, using the estimated death toll of 22,000 to 30,000, the likely number of confirmed cases would fall between 440,000 to 600,000.

b) Inferring from the infection rate of foreign nationals pulled out of Wuhan:

In early February when countries, such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Germany, began to pull their nationals out of Wuhan, netizens noted the percentage of infections of each group, and estimated how many people had been infected in Wuhan using the average infection rate of these groups.

Japan withdrew 565 nationals with 8 confirmed cases and the infection rate was about 1.42 percent; South Korea withdrew 368 nationals with 5 confirmed cases, with an infection rate of about 1.36 percent; Singapore withdrew 92 nationals with 1 confirmed cases, an infection rate of about 1.08 percent; and Germany withdrew 124 nationals with 2 confirmed cases, an infection rate of about 1.61 percent. The average infection rate among these four groups is 1.37 percent.

Domestically, of the 5,239 people who returned from Wuhan to Leqing, Wenzhou City (温州乐清市), there were 69 confirmed cases, the infection rate was 1.32 percent.

The average infection rate, based on these 5 groups, is 1.358 percent. Given the city’s population of 15 million:

15,000,000*1.358% = 203,700

Now factor in the R0, that is, the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person.

Over the week of January 20, according to an article in The Atlantic published on January 28, “at least six teams of researchers, along with the World Health Organization, have published estimates of R0 for the new coronavirus. All these groups used different methods, but their results have been mostly consistent, with estimates hovering between 2 and 3. WHO was a little more conservative than the others, with estimates of 1.4 to 2.5. One Chinese team is a clear outlier, with estimates of 3.3 to 5.5. A British-led group initially published a high average value of 3.8 last week before revising it downward to 2.5 as new data emerged.”

These R0 estimates were specific to Wuhan, and R0 2-3 seems to correspond pretty well with the estimates using China’s official death rate in Wuhan: – between 203,700*2 and 203,700*3, or between 407,400 and 611,100.

Related postings on Chinascope:

• Infection Count: China’s Real Count Could Be 50 Times Bigger
• Death Count: Wuhan Distributed an Estimate of over 40,000 Urns
• Death Count: Wuhan Has Unusually High Level of Sulfur Dioxide Gas
• Death Count: Funeral Home Interviews Suggested 500 Corpses Incinerated in Wuhan per Day
  
• Death Count: Wuhan Incinerated 122 Corpses Per Day Before Coronavirus Outbreak

Source: China Change, April 12, 2020

No Access to the CIA Report? Let’s DIY: Estimating Total Infections and Death Toll in Wuhan, the Epicenter of Covid-19

As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hides the infection and death count of the coronavirus in China, researchers are trying to estimate the actual number. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) published a report that estimates about 2.9 million Chinese may have been infected.

The report said that China’s COVID-19 figures are not arithmetically sensible. The CCP has deliberately made estimation difficult. Outside of Wuhan city and Hubei province, cases are low by a factor of 100 or more.

In late January, Chinese media provided information about migrant outflow from Wuhan before the quarantine. Using a lower number than theirs, then conservative figures for migrants’ infection rate and time in circulation before the national lockdown, the report generates an estimate of 2.9 million cases.

Related postings on Chinascope:

• Infection Count: China’s Real Count Could Be 50 Times Bigger
• Infection Count: China Started Reporting Count of Asymptomatic Virus Carriers
• Infection Count: 60 Percent Hidden Infection Cases in Wuhan Are Not Reported
• Infection Count: Zhang Wenhong Worried about Shanghai’s Confirmed Infection Count Being Zero
• Infection Count: Shandong Internal Report Had Much Higher Infection Counts Than the Published Numbers

Source: American Enterprise Institute, April 7, 2020

Estimating the true number of China’s COVID-19 cases

As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hides the infection and death count of the coronavirus in China, researchers are trying to estimate the actual number. Fox News reported that a Trump administration official told it that they estimate that China has under-reported the true nationwide tally of the coronavirus infection and death count by at least a factor of 50.

The official said, “The People’s Republic of China (PRC) numbers as reported today seem to be arithmetically impossible. Again, we don’t know the real numbers today, but we do know the about 80,000 infections and 4,000 deaths as reported by the Chinese Communist Party propaganda are not even remotely close.”

In support of this claim, officials point to the existence of seven funeral homes inside Wuhan city with a total incineration capacity of about 2,000 corpses per day. They also flagged recent reporting that incinerators have been in near-constant use for 24 hours per day over the past several weeks. They note that, at this rate, the city’s incineration capacity nears 60,000 corpses per month.

Between March 23 and April 4, the Wuhan government tried to return 500 urns per day to Wuhan families, or about one urn per minute of each day, in accordance with official social distancing recommendations. Based on this official guidance, sources arrive at a lower-end total tally of 45,500 corpses incinerated earlier and returned to their families.

Related postings on Chinascope:

• Death Count: China Revised Wuhan Death Count
• Death Count: Wuhan Distributed an Estimate of over 40,000 Urns
• Death Count: Wuhan Has Unusually High Level of Sulfur Dioxide Gas
• Death Count: (Unconfirmed) Huoshenshan Hospital Has Emptied 200 Rooms Every Day
• Death Count: Funeral Home Interviews Suggested 500 Corpses Incinerated in Wuhan per Day

Source: Fox News, April 27, 2020
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/china-could-have-50-times-more-coronavirus-cases-than-claimed-trump-administration-official-says